According to Fixygen, Bitcoin returned above the $80,000 mark in late August, posting one of its strongest weekly rallies in recent months, however, the current movement differs from typical cryptocurrency rallies—a significant portion of the demand is coming through regulated exchange-traded funds, and the U.S. government bond market has become one of the key macroeconomic factors.
On Tuesday, August 25, Bitcoin rose above $80,000 and reached a three-month high. According to Reuters, the leading cryptocurrency has gained about 28% since the beginning of August, which could be its best monthly performance since November 2024.
One of the triggers for the rally was action taken by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. On August 19, the Treasury announced that, starting September 9, it would increase the volume of buyback operations for long-term Treasury bonds to support market liquidity. The decline in yields on long-term securities and the simultaneous weakening of the dollar boosted demand for alternative assets, primarily gold and Bitcoin.
But unlike previous cryptocurrency cycles, this demand is now clearly visible within the traditional financial system.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have shifted from a series of outflows to a steady inflow of capital. According to Farside Investors, the funds saw net inflows of $297.5 million on August 17, $189.3 million on August 18, $517.2 million on August 19, $606.3 million on August 20, and $307.5 million on August 21.
After the weekend, the trend continued: on August 24, the funds attracted another $337.6 million, and on August 25, $314.3 million. Thus, over seven consecutive trading days, net inflows totaled approximately $2.57 billion.
The BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust remains the primary recipient of these funds. On August 20 alone, the IBIT received approximately $503 million; on August 24, $208.9 million; and on August 25, another $284.4 million. According to Farside data, the fund’s cumulative net inflow since its launch has already exceeded $62.9 billion.
This strong momentum was further amplified by the closing of short positions. The market was approaching an August reversal after a prolonged decline from the 2025 all-time highs, so a significant portion of traders were bracing for a further drop. The sharp rally forced participants to close out short positions, which added mechanical demand for Bitcoin.
As a result, Bitcoin rose by approximately 23% over the week, while Ethereum gained nearly 29%. After reaching the $80,000 mark, Bitcoin pulled back to the $78,000–$79,000 range, indicating profit-taking following the rapid rally.
In our view, the most interesting development is not the $80,000 mark itself, but the nature of the current demand.
In previous cycles, Bitcoin rose primarily on expectations within the cryptocurrency market itself. Now, it is increasingly becoming part of the same macroeconomic narrative as gold: investors are buying assets whose supply cannot be increased by a decision from a central bank or government.
The difference lies in volatility. While gold remains a conservative safe-haven asset, Bitcoin is effectively becoming a high-risk, highly volatile bet on the weakening of the dollar’s purchasing power.
At the same time, ETFs have made this strategy much more accessible to institutional investors. To increase their exposure to Bitcoin, a fund or asset management firm no longer needs to deal with crypto exchanges or store digital assets on its own—it’s enough to purchase an exchange-traded instrument from BlackRock, Fidelity, or another major asset manager.
That is why capital flows into ETFs are becoming one of the most important indicators of the market’s future direction. If the inflow of several hundred million dollars per day continues, it could provide Bitcoin with fundamental demand even after the short squeeze ends.
If, however, ETFs return to outflows, the current movement risks turning out to be primarily a rapid recovery rally following a sharp decline.
Thus, the near future will show whether Bitcoin has established itself in a new role—not merely as a speculative cryptocurrency, but as an institutional instrument for betting on the dollar, liquidity, and U.S. monetary policy.
According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market ended the week of August 17–23 with a sharp rally: Bitcoin rose by approximately 23%, Ethereum by more than 30%, and a number of major altcoins showed even stronger gains. The main drivers were an influx of funds into U.S. spot cryptocurrency ETFs, a weaker dollar, shifts in the U.S. Treasury market, and positive regulatory signals from Washington.
As of August 23, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $77,200, compared to about $62,900 at the end of the previous week. On August 21, the price rose to $79,300, marking a three-month high. Thus, BTC posted its best weekly performance in more than two years.
Ethereum rose even faster. ETH climbed from approximately $1,880 to $2,460—an increase of more than 30%. On August 19 alone, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization gained about 17.5%, and on August 21, it rose another 8%.
The rally also spread to altcoins. XRP rose by about 40% or more over the course of the week, Solana by more than 20%, and Chainlink, Hyperliquid, Dogecoin, and a number of other major digital assets also showed significant gains. Thus, this time the growth was not limited to Bitcoin alone.
One of the main factors was a sharp reversal in inflows into U.S. cryptocurrency ETFs. Over the five trading sessions from August 17–21, spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the U.S. attracted a combined total of about $2.6 billion, marking their best weekly performance since October 2025.
Bitcoin ETFs accounted for about $1.92 billion, while Ethereum ETFs accounted for about $697 million. Meanwhile, Bitcoin funds recorded net inflows for all five consecutive trading days. Bitcoin ETF trading volume for the week exceeded $22 billion, more than tripling the previous week’s figure.
The market received an additional boost on August 19 following the U.S. Treasury Department’s decision to increase the volume of long-term Treasury bond buybacks. This led to a decline in yields on some government securities and a weakening of the dollar, prompting investors to step up purchases of gold and Bitcoin as alternative assets.
According to Reuters, by the end of the week, the dollar had fallen to a three-month low against the euro, which also created a favorable backdrop for cryptocurrencies. During this period, some investors viewed Bitcoin, alongside gold, as part of the so-called “debasement trade”—betting on assets with limited supply amid concerns over U.S. debt and fiscal policy.
The closing of large short positions was also a key factor. Bitcoin’s rapid surge past the $65,000, $70,000, and $75,000 levels forced traders who had bet on a further decline to close their positions en masse. According to various estimates, during the most active phase of the rally, more than $4 billion in short positions were liquidated in the crypto market, which further accelerated the rally.
The regulatory backdrop in the U.S. also proved positive for the sector. On August 18, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed a new specialized framework for certain cryptoasset transactions and offerings. The SEC notes that the goal of the changes is to adapt the rules to the unique characteristics of digital assets, facilitate capital raising, and at the same time maintain investor protection requirements.
Thus, several favorable factors converged on the market simultaneously over the course of a single week: strong institutional demand driven by ETFs, a weaker dollar, improved liquidity expectations, and a reduction in regulatory uncertainty.
At the same time, the weekend showed that after such rapid growth, investors began to partially lock in profits. After peaking above $79,000, Bitcoin returned to the $76,000–$77,000 range, while Ethereum, after surpassing $2,500, traded around $2,400–$2,500. For now, this looks more like consolidation following a sharp rally than a full-fledged trend reversal.
U.S. monetary policy will be a key test for cryptocurrencies as early as next week. An economic symposium will take place in Jackson Hole on August 27–29, and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak on August 28. The market will be closely watching his assessment of inflation, interest rates, and the situation in the bond market.
For Bitcoin, the immediate key resistance zone remains the $79,000–$80,000 range. Holding above this level could pave the way for a continued recovery following the drop from record highs in 2025. At the same time, after a gain of more than 20% in a single week, the risk of a short-term correction remains high.
For Ethereum, the key will be holding the $2,300–2,400 range and continued inflows into spot ETH ETFs. It is the resilience of institutional demand following the best week for ETFs in 2026 that will determine whether the current rally will evolve into a longer-term uptrend.
Fixygen will continue to monitor inflows into cryptocurrency ETFs, Fed policy, the dollar’s performance, and Bitcoin’s behavior near the $80,000 level, all of which could determine the market’s direction in late August.
According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market ended last week mostly on an uptrend: Bitcoin rebounded from its early August decline and once again tested the $65,000 mark, while Ethereum and most of the major altcoins also gained ground. The exception among the leading cryptocurrencies was XRP, which lost about 5% over the week.
As of the morning of August 10, Bitcoin was trading at around $65,200 and had risen by approximately 3.7% over the past seven days, according to CoinDesk data. On Monday, the price fell back below $65,000—to around $64,500–$64,700. As of August 7, BTC was up 3.1% for the week, heading toward its first weekly gain in three weeks.
Ethereum was trading around $1,900 at the start of the new week and also ended the week with gains. BNB and Solana were in positive territory, while XRP lagged behind the broader market recovery and lost about 5%.
One of the main supporting factors was the return of institutional demand. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $853.54 million in net inflows last week, marking the strongest weekly result since mid-April. A significant portion of the funds went to BlackRock’s IBIT fund.
The combined net inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs for the week is estimated at approximately $1.1 billion. Back in early August, the situation was the opposite: Bitcoin ETFs had ended the previous week with a small net outflow, so the return of major buyers became one of the key shifts in the market landscape.
U.S. macroeconomic data provided additional support for cryptocurrencies. Weak U.S. labor market data eased concerns about a possible further increase in the Fed’s interest rates and bolstered demand for risky assets. Following the release of the data, Bitcoin rose to $65,000, while U.S. stock indices finished the week on a strong note.
However, it is still too early to speak of a full-fledged return to a sustained bullish trend. Bitcoin remains near the $62,000–$65,000 range, where it has spent much of the past few weeks. Analysts note that a sustained market recovery would require a break above the $65,000 level.
Another sign of caution is the extremely low realized volatility. Last Saturday, BTC’s trading range was only about $350—the narrowest Saturday range since November 2023. At the same time, the options market continues to see elevated demand for downside protection around the $62,000–$63,000 range, indicating ongoing concerns among market participants.
News of the sale of bitcoins by Strategy, the largest corporate holder, also acted as a restraining factor. The company reported on August 10 that it had sold 1,690 BTC for approximately $108.6 million the previous week, using the proceeds, in part, to repurchase preferred shares. Its holdings have decreased to 840,447 BTC.
Regulatory factors, on the other hand, are likely to take a back seat by the end of August. The U.S. Senate failed to pass the CLARITY Act before Congress’s August recess began. Lawmakers are not expected to resume consideration of comprehensive regulations for the digital asset market until at least mid-September.
What Will Drive the Market Through the End of August
The first major test will be U.S. inflation data. The U.S. Consumer Price Index for July is scheduled for release on August 12, the Producer Price Index on August 13, and retail sales data on August 14. Following weak employment data, inflation figures could shape expectations regarding the Fed’s future policy and, consequently, the direction of Bitcoin and other risky assets.
The next key date will be August 19, when the Federal Reserve releases the minutes of the July 28–29 FOMC meeting. Investors will be looking for additional signals in the minutes regarding the extent to which the central bank is concerned about the combination of rising inflation and a softening labor market.
The last week of August will be even more eventful. On August 26, the U.S. will simultaneously release the second estimate of second-quarter GDP and July statistics on personal income and spending, including the PCE price index—one of the Fed’s key inflation benchmarks.
From August 27 to 29, the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank will hold its annual symposium in Jackson Hole. In 2026, the symposium’s theme is directly related to financial markets: “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.” Therefore, statements by central bank leaders may be of particular significance for the cryptocurrency sector as well.
Two main scenarios can be identified for the market through the end of August. Assuming continued capital inflows into ETFs, more moderate inflation in the U.S., and sustained expectations of a neutral or more dovish Fed policy, Bitcoin will have the opportunity to consolidate above $65,000 and attempt to return to July’s levels above $66,000. This is a conclusion based on the current market structure, not a guaranteed price forecast.
The negative scenario is primarily linked to an unexpected acceleration of inflation in the U.S., rising bond yields, and a renewed escalation of geopolitical risks surrounding the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz. In that case, market attention will shift back to the $62,000–$63,000 range, where options traders are currently actively hedging against a decline.
Thus, the crypto market is entering the second half of August in a stronger position than at the beginning of the month: institutional inflows have resumed, Bitcoin has recouped a significant portion of its recent losses, and most of the largest altcoins have turned bullish. However, low volatility and the concentration of several key macroeconomic events in the second half of the month set the stage for a noticeable increase in price fluctuations by the end of August.
According to Fixygen, the global cryptocurrency market is nearing the end of the week without a clear direction: Bitcoin held steady at around $64,500, while Ethereum fell significantly, and inflows into U.S. cryptocurrency ETFs remained volatile.
As of Friday, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $64,400. On Monday, July 20, the leading cryptocurrency opened the week at around $64,680. Thus, the weekly decline was less than 0.5%, indicating consolidation following the market’s massive drop in previous months.
Ethereum showed significantly weaker performance over the same period. At the start of the week, its price was around $1,870, while by Friday it had fallen to approximately $1,620. The weekly decline reached 13%.
The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market was estimated at approximately $2.2 trillion. Bitcoin accounted for about 59% of the total market value, reflecting sustained investor demand for the largest and most liquid digital asset amid uncertainty.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $274 million in net inflows over four trading days from July 20 to 23. On Monday, inflows totaled $226.8 million; on Tuesday, $203.2 million; and on Wednesday, $69.1 million.
However, on Thursday, investors withdrew $225.1 million from Bitcoin ETFs. The bulk of the outflow—$202.5 million—came from BlackRock’s IBIT fund. This virtually wiped out a significant portion of the positive results from the beginning of the week. Data for Friday had not yet been published at the time of writing.
Spot Ethereum ETFs attracted approximately $174.5 million from Monday through Thursday. Net inflows were recorded daily, including $72.7 million on Wednesday and $26.3 million on Thursday. However, these inflows were unable to prevent a decline in the price of Ethereum, indicating that pressure on this asset persists across the broader market.
Earlier, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs broke an eight-week streak of outflows, during which investors withdrew more than $8 billion from the funds. The return to inflows was a positive sign, but the volume remains insufficient to indicate a sustained recovery in institutional demand.
A report published this week by CoinGecko showed that the cryptocurrency market capitalization in the second quarter of 2026 fell by 12.6%—from $2.4 trillion to $2.1 trillion.
The market capitalization of stablecoins decreased by 1.6% to $305.1 billion. This marked the first quarterly decline in this metric since the third quarter of 2023 and may indicate a partial withdrawal of liquidity from the cryptocurrency system.
Spot trading volume on the ten largest centralized crypto exchanges fell by 27.9% in the second quarter—to $1.95 trillion. In May, the figure dropped to $619 billion—the lowest monthly level since the start of the year—before rebounding to $695 billion in June.
Trading volume in perpetual futures on the largest centralized exchanges decreased by 10%—from $14.1 trillion to $12.7 trillion. The more moderate contraction of the derivatives market compared to the spot segment indicates that traders remain primarily interested in short-term and speculative trades.
One of the week’s major regulatory developments was the publication on July 22 of an updated version of the U.S. CLARITY Act. The bill aims to establish comprehensive rules for the digital asset market and allocate authority between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
In May, the Senate Banking Committee approved the bill by a vote of 15 to 9. However, the updated version sparked new disagreements, particularly regarding investor protection, combating illicit financing, and limiting conflicts of interest among government officials.
Thus, the week did not provide the market with a clear signal. Bitcoin showed relative stability, but Ethereum’s decline, the sharp reversal of flows into Bitcoin ETFs on Thursday, and weak quarterly figures for exchange activity indicate that market participants remain cautious.
The final results of the week will depend on Friday’s flows into U.S. ETFs, the situation in global risk markets, and further progress on cryptocurrency legislation in the U.S.
According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market is ending the week of July 13–17 at a level close to where it started: Bitcoin is trading at around $63,000, while the total market capitalization of digital assets stands at approximately $2.2 trillion.
As of Friday, Bitcoin was trading at around $63,020, down approximately 1.7% over the past 24 hours. The leading cryptocurrency’s share of the total market capitalization is estimated at 56–58%. Ethereum, Solana, and most other major digital assets were also under pressure. SOL was trading at around $78, and XRP at around $1.06.
On Monday, Bitcoin fell below $62,000 amid a new escalation of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, rising oil prices, and an exodus of investors from risky assets. After the release of U.S. inflation data, which came in weaker than expected, the cryptocurrency rebounded and rose above $65,500 on July 15, but was unable to sustain the gains.
By the end of the week, pressure on the crypto market intensified due to a sell-off in tech and semiconductor stocks, rising oil prices, and new geopolitical risks in the Middle East. On Friday, Bitcoin lost about 2% over the course of the day and returned to the $63,000 level.
Capital flows in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs remained volatile. On Monday, the funds recorded a net outflow of $424.7 million, followed by inflows of $181.1 million on Tuesday, $107.7 million on Wednesday, and $79.1 million on Thursday. As a result, the cumulative outflow over the four trading days totaled approximately $56.8 million. Data for Friday had not yet been published at the time of writing.
An additional source of uncertainty was the debate in the U.S. over the Clarity Act, a bill intended to establish regulations for the cryptocurrency market and delineate the powers of financial regulators. Progress on the bill has slowed due to disagreements in the Senate and concerns about a potential conflict of interest related to President Donald Trump’s cryptocurrency holdings.
In the corporate sector, the week’s main event was Citadel Securities’ investment in the cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com. The market maker invested $400 million, valuing the platform at $20 billion. This is Crypto.com’s first round of institutional funding. The funds raised are planned to be directed toward the development of operations involving tokenized securities and derivatives.
At the same time, pressure remains on public companies that have built up large Bitcoin reserves. Strategy has already sold approximately $218 million worth of digital assets in 2026 to fund dividends and maintain its dollar reserves. The decline in cryptocurrency prices has led to the shares of a number of similar companies trading below the value of the digital assets they hold.
Thus, softer U.S. inflation data and the resumption of capital inflows into ETFs have failed to ensure a sustained market recovery. Next week’s market dynamics will depend on developments in the Middle East, oil prices, capital flows into cryptocurrency funds, and further progress on U.S. legislation regarding digital assets.
According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market ended the week with a partial recovery after Bitcoin fell below the psychological threshold of $60,000, however, the main topics for the industry remained outflows from ETFs, major banks revising their forecasts, intensifying regulatory competition surrounding stablecoins, and miners shifting to the AI data center sector.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $62,440, while Ethereum was trading around $1,625. Earlier in the week, BTC fell below $60,000 amid weak demand from institutional investors, outflows from exchange-traded funds, and persistent geopolitical risks.
Data on U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs served as a key negative signal. According to CoinDesk, citing SoSoValue, the funds recorded $4.5 billion in net outflows in June—the worst month since the launch of such products in January 2024. The previous record low was $3.48 billion in February 2025.
Against this backdrop, Citigroup lowered its 12-month price forecast for Bitcoin from $112,000 to $82,000, and for Ether from $3,175,000 to $2,240,000. The bank attributed the revision to waning investor interest, outflows from ETFs, and a lack of rapid progress in U.S. crypto regulation. Citi also lowered its expectations for net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs from $10 billion to zero.
The week’s regulatory agenda focused primarily on stablecoins. In the UK, the FCA eased its final requirements for stablecoin issuers, lowering the proposed capital reserve from 2% to 1% of the issuance volume. The final rules are set to bring the crypto-asset sector fully under FCA supervision starting in October 2027.
This is an important signal for the global market: jurisdictions are beginning to compete not only for crypto exchanges but also for tokenized payment infrastructure. Following increased U.S. scrutiny of dollar-pegged stablecoins, the UK is attempting to make its own regulations more proportionate so as not to lose companies working with payment tokens.
Another trend of the week is the continued expansion of Bitcoin miners into the AI and data center sectors. Reuters reported that the Hunt and Crow families—both American billionaire families—along with Nasdaq-listed company Empery Digital, have signed an agreement for a $230 million industrial facility with a capacity of 150 MW and plan to convert it into a hyperscale data center. The parties also signed a non-binding letter of intent for a $1 billion lease with a cloud computing company.
Another telling example is Ionic Digital, a company that positions itself as both a Bitcoin miner and an AI infrastructure company, which has filed for a direct listing on Nasdaq. This confirms structural changes in the sector: for some miners, the key asset is no longer so much hash rate as access to electricity, land, substations, and permits for data centers.
For miners, this diversification has been a response to the deteriorating economics of Bitcoin mining following the halving, high network difficulty, and falling BTC prices. Reuters previously noted that crypto miners are increasingly using large energy facilities for artificial intelligence (AI) computing, as mining profitability remains volatile and demand for AI data centers is growing rapidly.
The week also demonstrated a shift in investor sentiment. Following a strong first half of the year for AI-related stocks, part of the market began looking for opportunities to rotate back into Bitcoin after a deep correction. CoinDesk noted that a loss of momentum in the segment of stocks for companies involved in memory and semiconductor manufacturing could raise the question of returning some capital to BTC; however, traders are not yet showing full confidence in the sustainability of the rebound.
From a practical standpoint, the market situation looks like this: Bitcoin has recovered above $60,000 but has not received sufficiently strong institutional validation via ETFs. Ethereum remains under pressure from weaker network activity and lower forecasts, while stablecoins and AI data centers are becoming the most dynamic segments of the crypto infrastructure.
In the coming weeks, key factors for the market will remain the dynamics of inflows and outflows in spot ETFs, macroeconomic expectations regarding U.S. interest rates, regulatory signals regarding stablecoins, and Bitcoin’s ability to consolidate above $60,000. If outflows from ETFs continue, the market may revert to a defensive scenario. If, on the other hand, institutional demand stabilizes, July could be a month of technical recovery following a weak June.
