Inflation in Ukraine will drop to 9% or lower in 2023 from 26.6% last year, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said at the opening of the Kyiv International Economic Forum on Thursday.
“We have inflation of about 8-9% for the year. I am convinced that it will not be higher,” the Prime Minister said.
According to him, after a 29.1% decline, GDP growth this year was “3%+”.
“The (budget) deficit still remains 20% of GDP, but we have found a way to compensate for it: while last year we received $32 billion in grants and soft loans, this year we expect to receive $42 billion without military support and other humanitarian contributions,” Shmyhal said.
As reported with reference to the State Statistics Service, inflation in Ukraine in September fell to 7.1% in annual terms from 8.6% in August and 11.3% in July. Since the beginning of this year, inflation in the country has been 3.0%, with core inflation at 4.1%.
At the end of July, the National Bank of Ukraine again improved its inflation forecast for this year from 14.8% to 10.6%, but last week announced plans to further revise it downward.
In 2022, inflation is expected to rise to 26.6% from 10% in 2021, and core inflation to 22.6% from 7.9%.
Consumer prices in Ukraine rose by 0.5% in September 2023, after declining by 1.4% in August and 0.6% in July, the State Statistics Service (Ukrstat) reported on Monday.
At the same time, inflation was recorded at 1.9% in September-2022, so in annual terms in September-2023 it fell to 7.1% from 8.6% in August and 11.3% in July.
In September, the State Statistics Service recorded core inflation at 0.9% after two months of being at zero.
Given that core inflation stood at 2.4% in September 2022, it also fell to 8.4% year-on-year in September 2023 from 10.0% in August and 12.3% in July.
Since the beginning of this year, inflation in the country has been 3.0%, with core inflation at 4.1%, the State Statistics Service said.
In the consumer market in September, prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages decreased by 0.5%. Vegetables fell the most (by 9.7%). Prices for fruits, processed cereals, rice, sunflower oil, fish, and fish products fell by 5.1-0.4%. At the same time, eggs went up by 12.3%, and prices for butter, sugar, meat and meat products, lard, bread, and milk rose by 1.3-0.5%.
Prices for alcoholic beverages and tobacco products increased by 0.7%, which was due to a 1.4% rise in the price of tobacco products.
Clothing and footwear went up by 7.8%, with footwear rising by 8.2% and clothing by 7.6%.
Transportation prices increased by 2.2%, mainly due to a 4.9% rise in fuel and oil prices. At the same time, railroad passenger transportation fell by 3.2%.
Education services went up by 9.9%, namely secondary education by 13.9%, higher education by 11.5%, and preschool education by 5.4%.
As reported, at the end of July, the National Bank of Ukraine again improved its inflation forecast for this year from 14.8% to 10.6%, but last week announced plans to further revise it downward.
In 2022, inflation is expected to rise to 26.6% from 10% in 2021, and core inflation to 22.6% from 7.9%.
Inflation in Turkey accelerated for the second consecutive month in August and reached an eight-month high due to tax hikes, a weaker lira and rising food prices.
Consumer prices increased by 58.9% year-on-year, compared to a 47.8% rise in July, according to the country’s statistical institute (Turkstat).
Analysts surveyed by Trading Economics had predicted a more moderate acceleration of inflation, to 55.9%.
Food prices jumped 72.9%, the highest rise in eight months. In July, they rose by 60.7%.
Utilities went up by 25% last month (19.3% in July), transportation by 70.2% (43.4%), and medical services by 77.6% (75.9%). The growth in the cost of furniture and household appliances accelerated to 58.9% from 50.1%.
Core inflation, which excludes the cost of food, energy, tobacco products and gold, was 64.9% in August, compared to 56.1% a month earlier, Turkstat reports.
Meanwhile, monthly consumer price growth slowed to 9.1% in August from 9.5% in July. The July figure was the highest since December 2021.
The Central Bank of Turkey expects inflation to be 58% in 2023, 33% in 2024, and 15% in 2025.
The Turkish national currency is trading at around 26.77 lira per $1 on Monday, compared to 26.73 lira at the close of the previous session. The Turkish stock index BIST 100 has risen by 1% since the market opened.
Earlier, the Club of Experts project analyzed the state of the Turkish economy before the elections, see more here
US inflation is slowing but still remains too high, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (FRB) Governor Neel Kashkari said.
“The question that concerns me is whether we have done enough to bring inflation back to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target or whether we need to do more,” Kashkari said during an event on Tuesday.
“Inflation is slowing. We’ve made progress and good progress. I’m happy with that. But it’s still too high,” Market Watch quoted Kashkari as saying.
The pace of U.S. consumer price growth accelerated to an annualized rate of 3.2% in July, up from 3% in June.
The head of the Minneapolis FRB has a vote on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) this year.
The Fed raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.25-5.5% in July, a 22-year high. Judging by the quotations of futures on the rate level, traders expect it to remain at the same level following the results of the September FOMC meeting.
Stock indices of the largest countries of Western Europe in the course of trading on Wednesday show a positive mood on the data on weakening inflation in the UK and the eurozone.
The composite index of the largest European companies Stoxx Europe 600 increased by 0.4% to 462.45 points by 12:02 Q2.
German indicator DAX from the market opening rose by 0.2%, French CAC 40 – by 0.6%, British FTSE 100 – by 1.5% (to the maximum for a month). Italian FTSE MIB and Spanish IBEX 35 added 0.15% each.
Consumer prices in the UK in June rose by 7.9% in annualized terms – this is the minimum rise since March 2022. Inflation thus slowed from 8.7% in May.
The consensus forecast cited by Trading Economics had called for inflation to weaken to 8.2% in June.
Consumer price growth in Britain in monthly terms slowed to 0.1% in June from 0.7% in May. Analysts had expected an increase of 0.4%.
Consumer prices in the euro zone rose at a 5.5% annualized rate in June, according to final data. This is the weakest rise since January last year. Inflation was 6.1% in May.
The June figure matched both the preliminary estimate and the average forecast of experts.
Dutch manufacturer of chip equipment ASML Holding NV reduced net profit by 1% in the second quarter, but improved its revenue growth forecast for the current year. Quotes of the company’s shares are up 0.5%.
The price of securities Kering SA soared by almost 6%. The French holding company, which owns famous fashion brands, announced the departure of Gucci CEO Marco Bizzarri, who held the post since 2015. The brand will be led on an interim basis by group managing director Jean-François Palus.
Swedish access control systems maker Assa Abloy increased its second-quarter net profit by 13.3% to 3.57 billion kronor ($349 million) and revenue by 17% to 34.47 billion kronor. Analysts polled by FactSet had on average forecast 4.13 billion crowns and 33.68 billion crowns, respectively. The company’s shares are up 0.2%.
Stock prices of oil producers are also rising: BP Plc and Shell – by 1.1%, TotalEnergies – by 0.5%.
Meanwhile, the value of Volvo is down 1.7%. The Swedish truck maker reported a 5% rise in deliveries in the April-June quarter, but new orders fell 10%.
Antofagasta shares are down 1.1%. The company increased copper production by 2.5% in the second quarter relative to January-March to 149.6 thousand tons. However, the forecast for the whole current year was lowered to 640-670 thousand tons from previously expected 670-710 thousand tons.
Consumer price growth in Ukraine in May 2023 accelerated to 0.5% from 0.2% in April after slowing down from 1.5% in March, 0.7% in February and 0.8% in January, the State Statistics Service reported on Friday.
At the same time, inflation of 2.7% was recorded in May 2022, therefore, year-over-year in May 2023, it decreased to 15.3% from 17.9% in April, 21.3% in March, 24.9% in February and 26.6% in December.
Underlying inflation fell to 0.3% last month from 0.5% in April and 1.3% in March, the State Statistics Service said. Taking into account the fact that in May last year, underlying inflation was 1.4%, year-over-year it also fell to 15.9% in May from 17.2% in April, 20.1% in March and 22 .7% in February.
Since the beginning of the year, inflation in the country reached 3.8%, and underlying inflation was 3.3%, the State Statistics Service said.
In the consumer market in May, prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages rose by 0.9%. Most of all (by 8.7% and 5.6%) the prices of fruits and vegetables rose. Prices for meat and meat products, non-alcoholic drinks, fish and fish products, cheeses, butter grew by 1.7-0.2%. At the same time, prices for eggs fell by 22.7%, prices for processed grain products, lard, rice, sunflower oil, sugar, pasta, and milk dropped by 3.2–0.2%.
Prices for alcoholic beverages and tobacco products rose by 1.2%, including for tobacco products by 1.3%, and alcoholic beverages by 1.2%.
Clothing and footwear fell in price by 1.6%, in particular footwear by 1.9%, and clothing by 1.4%.
The 0.8% increase in prices in the healthcare sector was primarily due to a 1.0% increase in the cost of pharmaceutical products.
Transportation prices fell by 1.1% mainly due to a 2.5% reduction in the cost of fuel and lubricants.
As reported, in April, the National Bank of Ukraine improved its inflation forecast for this year from 18.7% to 14.8%, including in the second quarter, the NBU expected it to decline to 14.5%.
