Ukraine’s total public debt in 2024 rose to a new all-time high: by $22.74 billion, or 14.3%, to $166.06 billion in dollar terms, and by UAH 1 trillion 461.3 billion, or 26.5%, to UAH 6 trillion 980.9 billion in hryvnia terms, according to the website of the Ministry of Finance.
According to the data, the direct public debt increased by 16.5% in dollars to $159.20 billion, or UAH 6 trillion 692.4 billion, and accounted for 95.9% of the total public and publicly guaranteed debt.
In 2024, Ukraine’s total external public debt increased by 18.1%, or by $18.38 billion, to $114.88 billion, while the total internal public debt increased by 16.7%, or by UAH 276.0 billion, to UAH 1 trillion 863.1 billion.
As a result, the share of total external public debt increased from 70.0% to 72.3% over the year.
According to the Ministry of Finance, the share of liabilities in euros at the end of 2024 increased to 33.01%, in US dollars to 26.81%, in SDRs to 11.39%, in Canadian dollars to 2.83%, in British pounds to 0.11%, while in hryvnia it decreased to 25.33% and in yen to 0.51%.
The agency also clarified that 65.01% of the state debt has a fixed interest rate, while 11.39% is tied to the IMF rate, 12.66% to SOFR, 3.80% to EURIBOR, 0.51% to TORF and 0.10% to SONIA.
The rate for another 2.08% of government debt is tied to the consumer price index, and 4.17% to the NBU discount rate. These are government bonds from the NBU’s portfolio. The newest of these were the securities linked to the key policy rate, which the NBU bought as part of the issue financing of the 2022 budget.
Finally, 0.27% of the state debt has a rate linked to the Ukrainian index of rates on retail deposits, which is used in portfolio guarantee programs.
The Ministry of Finance previously noted that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to a sharp increase in the ratio of public debt to GDP – from 43.3% at the end of 2021 to 79.4% at the end of 2023.
As reported, Ukraine’s public and publicly guaranteed debt increased by $13.4 billion in 2022 and by $33.9 billion in 2023.
The IMF, as part of the sixth review of the EFF Extended Fund Facility program with Ukraine last December, improved its forecast for public debt growth due to higher GDP growth and lower deficits: to 92.2% of GDP by the end of 2024 and to 104.3% by the end of 2025, while in October it estimated it at 95.6% of GDP and 106.6% of GDP, respectively.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis on the state of debt in the world, see more details on the YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/gq7twYrWuqE
The administration of the new US President Donald Trump is taking the first steps to change the regulation of the cryptocurrency market. During his election campaign, Trump promised to create a more friendly environment for crypto assets.
Mark Ueda, the acting chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), announced the creation of a working group to “develop a comprehensive and clear regulatory framework for crypto assets.”
“The task force will help the SEC define clear regulatory boundaries, propose realistic pathways for registration, develop reasonable disclosure schemes, and prudently allocate resources for enforcement,” the regulator said in a statement.
Ueda is acting as SEC chairman temporarily while Trump’s nominee, lawyer Paul Atkins, awaits confirmation by the Senate.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank, Brian Mefford and Maxim Urakin, released a video analysis of what changes await US domestic and foreign policy under Trump, the video is available on the Experts Club YouTube channel – https://youtu.be/W2elNY1xczM?si=MM-QjSqGce4Tlq6T
Europe should be prepared for a possible increase in tariffs on imports of goods to the United States, as promised by President Donald Trump, said European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde. The fact that Trump has not yet signed a decree to impose additional duties on all imports was “a very sensible approach, as total tariffs will not necessarily lead to the expected results,” Lagarde said in an interview with CNBC in Davos.
In her opinion, the new US tariffs will be more “selective and focused”.
“We in Europe need to prepare and wait in advance to see what will happen in order to respond to it,” Lagarde added.
At the same time, the ECB President noted that the regulator is “not too concerned” about external risks to inflation.
In response to a journalist’s question about the possible consequences of a new wave of inflation in the United States, Lagarde said that “accelerating inflation in the United States will be a problem for the United States, and that is where the main effects will be felt first.”
The ECB has cut rates by a total of 100 basis points in 2024, with the key deposit rate now at 3%. Economists expect four rate cuts of 25 bps each in 2025. Earlier, the Experts Club think tank, Brian Mefford and Maxim Urakin, released a video analysis on what changes are expected in US domestic and foreign policy under Trump, the video is available on the Experts Club YouTube channel – https://youtu.be/W2elNY1xczM?si=MM-QjSqGce4Tlq6T
US President Donald Trump has lifted the moratorium on the issuance of new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export licenses imposed by his predecessor Joe Biden. The US Department of Energy reported that it is returning to the normal regime of reviewing export applications in accordance with Trump’s order.
“The Department has been instructed to resume reviewing applications for the export of US LNG to countries that do not have a free trade agreement with the United States. The proper review of export applications is required by law and must be carried out accordingly,” the Energy Ministry said in a statement.
In December, the agency published the results of a study on LNG exports and set February 18 as the deadline for public comments on it. Now the Ministry of Energy has decided to extend the comment period until March 20, 2025.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank, Brian Mefford and Maxim Urakin, released a video analysis on what changes are expected to occur in US domestic and foreign policy under Trump, the video is available on the Experts Club YouTube channel – https://youtu.be/W2elNY1xczM?si=MM-QjSqGce4Tlq6T
EXPERTS CLUB, EXPORT, GAS, LICENSE, MORATORIUM, TRUMP, URAKIN, Меффорд
On the first day of his presidency, Trump intends to sign executive orders, including reinstating the death penalty at the federal level in the United States, which was abolished by Biden, and declaring a state of emergency on the southern border, representatives of the new administration told Reuters.
“Even before Trump was set to take office, his aides detailed a series of executive orders he would sign immediately, including 10 on border security and immigration, his top priority,” Reuters reported on Monday.
It is reported that on the first day, Trump will also declare a state of emergency on the southern border, send troops to the region and reinstate the policy that forces asylum seekers to wait in Mexico for a hearing in a US court. Will require that official U.S. documents, including passports, indicate the gender assigned to citizens at birth. Pardon 1,500 people involved in the Capitol storming case.
“On his first day, which also happens to be Martin Luther King Jr. Day, he will also sign an executive order ending diversity, equality and inclusion initiatives in the federal government, officials said,” the agency noted.
In the midst of the ceremony, Trump is expected to begin “signing his first executive orders, many of which are likely to face legal challenges.”
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank, Brian Mefford and Maxim Urakin, released a video analysis of what changes await US domestic and foreign policy under Trump, the video is available on the Experts Club YouTube channel – https://youtu.be/W2elNY1xczM?si=MM-QjSqGce4Tlq6T
Today, Donald Trump will officially begin his term as the 47th President of the United States of America. His possible actions and strategies in the international arena were the main topic of discussion at a meeting of experts organized by the Atlantic Council and Experts Club. Brian Mefford, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, and Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club, discussed key issues that will affect the geopolitical situation in the world, including Ukraine.
Brian Mefford noted that Trump’s first months in office will be focused on resolving domestic issues, such as the confirmation of his cabinet members in the Senate. However, the expert emphasized that Ukraine will remain an important issue in US foreign policy.
“Ukraine already has a special envoy, General Kellogg. Although his visit to Kyiv was postponed, it shows that Ukraine remains a priority. Its security is crucial for stability in the region,” Mr. Mefford said.
One of the key topics of discussion was Ukraine’s membership in NATO, which was first promised at the Bucharest Summit in 2008. According to Brian Mefford, this decision could have prevented many of the current problems.
“It was a serious mistake at the time. Russia used this uncertainty: first in Georgia and then in Ukraine. Now, because of the war on its own territory, the NATO issue for Ukraine is being postponed indefinitely. At the same time, there is a need for long-term security guarantees. Ukraine needs modern weapons, so the United States and European partners must remain reliable allies of Ukraine,” he explained.
At the same time, according to the expert, the issue of NATO funding became one of the most discussed during Trump’s first presidency, when he called on European countries to increase their defense spending.
“The United States spends more on defense than the next nine countries combined. Trump was right to insist that European countries spend at least 2% of GDP on defense. And now these requirements are being met. Increasing defense spending in Europe is in everyone’s interest. The alliance remains a powerful tool for ensuring stability,” Mr. Mefford emphasized.
According to him, the US withdrawal from NATO is currently an unlikely scenario.
Mefford suggested that the Trump administration will continue its tough economic policy towards China, including trade wars.
“China does not follow fair rules in international trade. Support for Taiwan will remain unchanged, as the United States has strategic interests in the region. Although China often demonstrates strength, its economy is on the verge of recession and its military power is exaggerated,” he explained.
The expert also touched upon the issue of sanctions against Russia, which remain an effective tool of international pressure.
“Trump imposed more sanctions against Russia during his previous term than Obama did. Their mitigation is possible only if the war ends. This is a long-term mechanism that cannot be ignored,” emphasized Mefford.
Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club think tank, in turn, emphasized the importance of Donald Trump’s election for Ukraine and the world and reminded of other important elections for Ukraine and the region in 2025:
“For Ukraine, partnership with the United States is crucial. However, we need to be prepared for different scenarios and strengthen our economic resilience and diversify our foreign policy, given the very important elections this year in Germany, Poland, Romania, Moldova, and Canada. The world is becoming very dynamic in the future,” said Maxim Urakin.
The experts’ analysis showed that Trump’s policy toward Ukraine will be shaped by both internal and external factors. At the same time, Ukraine’s role in global security will only grow, and international support will remain critical for security on the European continent.
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Atlantic Council, EXPERTS CLUB, NATO, SECURITY, TRUMP, UKRAINE, URAKIN, USA, Меффорд