Over the past six months – from September 2024 to March 2025 – the debt of the state-owned enterprise Guaranteed Buyer (Guaranteed Buyer) to renewable energy producers operating at the feed-in tariff has decreased by 37.7% to UAH 22.3 billion from UAH 35.8 billion.
This was announced by Artem Nekrasov, Head of Guaranteed Buyer, at a meeting of the Energy Development League press club on March 27.
According to him, the state-owned enterprise’s settlements with renewable energy generation have increased to 93% since the beginning of 2025, compared to 86% last year. In turn, NPC Ukrenergo’s payments to Guaranteed Buyer for renewable energy services in 2025 increased to 85.2% from 72.9% in 2024.
“There are positive developments. For the first time in my memory, a weighted tariff for electricity transmission services (for Ukrenergo – IF-U) was approved for this year. In addition, we started signing contracts with Ukrenergo not in 1.5-2 years, as it used to be before, but, for example, the January contract has already been signed and payments have already been made,” the CEO said.
According to Nekrasov, the development of the renewable energy market largely depends on the repayment of debts that have historically been accumulated after 2020.
He recalled that in 2020, the government and investors in renewable energy signed a memorandum in which the state confirmed payment guarantees. In particular, the government decided to add an additional part of the funds to the system operator’s tariff, which the state will compensate from the state budget. However, every year, when adopting the state budget, MPs exclude this provision from consideration, which has resulted in the NPC’s tariff remaining underfunded for several years, and Guaranteed Buyer’s debts to market participants are equal to Ukrenergo’s debts to Guaranteed Buyer.
Nekrasov said that Guaranteed Buyer will continue its activities to resolve the debt problem, for which a special roadmap will be developed in a dialogue with market participants.
“Regarding the debts of previous periods, it should be understood that no one in a country at war will immediately raise UAH 15-20 billion to repay them. However, a memorandum or a roadmap for debt repayment will be developed at the level of renewable energy companies, Guaranteed Buyer, Ukrenergo, the Ministry of Energy and the National Energy and Utilities Regulatory Commission, which establishes the sources of payments,” the Chairman summarized. According to him, such a map will include reasonable repayment periods and clear sources of funding.
In turn, the positive dynamics in Guaranteed Buyer’s settlements with market participants was also confirmed at the meeting by the heads of specialized associations and owners of renewable energy installations.
“The development of solar energy is facilitated by the gradual reduction of debt to renewable energy sources, as well as the fact that solar equipment can be installed quite quickly and in many cases does not require special permits,” said Vladyslav Sokolovskyi, Chairman of the Board of the Solar Energy Association of Ukraine.
For his part, Andriy Konechenkov, Chairman of the Board of the Ukrainian Wind Energy Association, said that wind energy will receive a new wave of development in 2025, which will yield qualitative results in 2026-2027.
“Currently, six wind farms are under construction in different regions of Ukraine,” he added.
The event was supported by the information and analytical center Experts Club.
EXPERTS CLUB, Guaranteed Buyer, RENEWABLES, UKRENERGO, ГОЛІЗДРА, Некрасов
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts a significant increase in the US national debt over the next 30 years. According to CBO’s forecast, the national debt will reach 100% of GDP in the current fiscal year and increase to a record 107% of GDP in fiscal year 2029. By 2025, the figure is expected to reach 156% of GDP.
“Rising public debt will slow economic growth, lead to higher interest payments to foreign debt holders, and pose significant risks to budget and economic projections,” the CBO said in its review.
Earlier this week, international rating agency Moody’s warned that import duties imposed by US President Donald Trump could prevent the country from getting its growing budget deficit under control.
The CBO expects the US budget deficit to increase to 7.3% of GDP by 2055 from 6.4% of GDP in 2024. The forecast for 2025 is 6.2% of GDP.
The CBO forecast assumes a slowdown in US economic growth this year to 2.1% from 2.8% in 2024. Earlier, Experts Club and Maksim Urakin released a video analysis of the state of debt in the world, see more details on the YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/gq7twYrWuqE
In February, global steel production decreased by 3.4% (to 144.7 million tons). The top ten largest producers saw a decline in volumes, except for India (+6.3%) and South Korea (+0.7%).
Top 10 steel producing countries in February 2025:
China – 78.92 million tons (-3.3%)
India – 12.66 million tons (+6.3%)
Japan – 6.4 million tons (-8.5%)
USA – 6.03 million tons (-7%)
Russia – 5.8 million tons (-3.4%)
South Korea – 5.15 million tons (+0.7%)
Turkey – 2.92 million tons (-5.6%)
Brazil – 2.72 million tons (-1.6%)
Germany – 2.7 million tons (-13.5%)
Italy – 1.81 million tons (-0.6%)
Overall, in January-February 2025, global steel production amounted to 301.96 million tons, down 2.2% compared to the same period in 2024.
The full dynamics of steel production by the top twenty countries of the world is available on the Experts Club YouTube channel – https://youtube.com/shorts/VgUU9MEMosE?si=BMOo_LS734dXysdj
In February 2025, Ukrainian steelmakers produced 572 thousand tons of steel, up 7.5% from February 2024. However, volumes decreased by 6.4% compared to January.
According to Worldsteel, Ukraine ranked 21st among 69 steel-producing countries. In the first two months of 2025, the country increased production by 9.9% to 1.183 million tons.
The full dynamics of steel production by the world’s top twenty countries is available on the Experts Club YouTube channel – https://youtube.com/shorts/VgUU9MEMosE?si=BMOo_LS734dXysdj
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced the dissolution of parliament on Sunday and new elections on April 28.
“I have just asked the Governor General to dissolve parliament and call a federal election on April 28,” he wrote on social media site X.
“We must build the strongest economy in the G7. We must deal with President Trump’s tariffs. Canadians deserve a choice about who should lead these efforts for our country,” the prime minister emphasized.
Earlier, Experts Club and Maksim Urakin released a video analysis on the most important elections in the world in 2025 – https://youtu.be/u1NMbFCCRx0?si=AOtHGDT1kGNdZd2g
The article presents key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the global economy in January-November 2024. The analysis is based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the IMF, the World Bank, and the United Nations, on the basis of which Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world. The key aspects of the report include the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, unemployment, foreign trade and public debt of Ukraine, as well as global macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
In 2024, Ukraine’s economy demonstrated moderate growth despite the ongoing challenges posed by the war and external economic factors. According to the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, the country’s gross domestic product grew by 4.2% year-on-year in January-October 2024. In October, growth was 1.3% year-on-year. The main drivers of growth were construction, transportation, and manufacturing.
However, inflation remains a significant challenge for the economy. According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, annual inflation reached 12% in December 2024, accelerating from 8.6% in September. Consumer prices in December increased by 1.4% compared to November, when they grew by 1.9%.
“Inflation creates a significant burden on households and businesses. Combating price pressure requires thoughtful steps in monetary and fiscal policy,” Urakin emphasized.
The negative balance of foreign trade in goods in January-November 2024 increased by 3.6% compared to the same period in 2023, reaching $25.239 billion.
“This indicates high imports and insufficient export growth. It is necessary to strengthen support for exporters and develop strategically important industries to improve the trade balance,” said Maksim Urakin.
Ukraine’s international reserves increased by $3.863 billion or 9.7% in December and amounted to $43.788 billion as of January 1, 2025, according to preliminary data.
“The growth of reserves is due to the receipt of foreign currency from international partners, which in December exceeded the net sale of foreign currency by the National Bank and the country’s payments on foreign debts,” Maksim Urakin emphasized.
Global economy
Global economic activity remains heterogeneous. According to the International Monetary Fund, global economic growth in 2024 will be 3.1%. However, geopolitical instability, high interest rates, and slowing growth in key economies continue to weigh on the outlook.
The US economy is showing steady growth thanks to strong domestic demand. According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the country’s GDP grew by 2.8% in the third quarter of 2024, driven by a 3.7% increase in consumer spending. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%, indicating stability in the labor market. At the same time, inflation, although declining from its peak, remains at 3.9% year-on-year.
“The US economy remains the engine of global growth, but high interest rates and government spending cuts may slow its pace in 2025,” Urakin said.
The EU economy is showing weak growth rates. The forecast for 2024 has been lowered to 0.9%, and for the Eurozone countries – to 0.8%. Germany, the largest economy in the region, is under pressure due to the weakness of the industrial sector, where production fell by 1.2% year-on-year. Inflation in the Eurozone slowed to 4.2%, allowing the European Central Bank to consider easing monetary policy in 2025.
“The EU economy is facing a number of challenges, including the energy crisis and weakening external demand. These factors limit the potential for recovery,” Urakin emphasized.
India continues to demonstrate stable growth, remaining one of the fastest growing economies in the world. According to the Indian government, the country’s GDP will grow by 7% in 2024. The main growth drivers are the IT sector, industrial production and agriculture. Inflation remains under control at 5.2%, which allows the Reserve Bank of India to keep the key policy rate unchanged.
“India is strengthening its position as a global economic leader. Its steady growth and reforms in key sectors continue to attract significant investment,” Urakin said.
China’s economy grew by 4.6% in the third quarter of 2024, but the forecast for the year was lowered to 4.8% due to weak domestic demand and difficulties in the real estate sector. Corporate debt problems and slowing export growth continue to weigh on the economy.
“China is facing challenges that may limit its role in the global recovery. However, the measures taken to support the economy should reduce these risks,” Urakin added.
Economic indicators for Ukraine and the world in 2024 show a contradictory picture. GDP growth and positive signals from global markets are combined with inflationary risks and foreign trade imbalances. The global economy is also under pressure from many uncertainties.
“It is important for Ukraine to focus on structural reforms that stimulate export growth and attract foreign investment. Only sustainable development of key industries can ensure long-term economic stability,” summarized Maksim Urakin.
You can learn more about Ukraine’s foreign trade in 2024 in the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFxad1mplE0&t
You can subscribe to the Experts Club channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
