The article presents key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the global economy for the first half of 2024. The analysis is based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the IMF, the World Bank, and the UN, on the basis of which Maksym Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world. The key aspects of the report include the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, unemployment, foreign trade and public debt of Ukraine, as well as global macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and the National Bank of Ukraine, Ukraine’s real GDP growth rate slowed to 3.5% in May 2024, compared to 4.3% in April and 4.8% in March. This decline is mainly due to a drop in electricity generation, which affected the industrial sector and led to a decrease in production in the machine building and metallurgy sectors. At the same time, exports and demand in the construction industry supported positive economic growth.
“In June 2024, Ukraine’s public debt increased by UAH 200 billion, and inflation accelerated to 2.2%, which is generally in line with the NBU’s target range,” Maksym Urakin emphasized.
Global economy
The World Bank forecasts global economic growth of 2.6% in 2024, up from the previous forecast of 2.4%. In 2025-2026, the growth rate is expected to further increase to 2.7%. For developing countries, the average annual GDP growth in 2024-2025 is projected at 4%, slightly lower than in 2023.
“In low-income countries, growth will accelerate to 5% in 2024, compared to 3.8% in 2023. For developed countries, growth is expected to reach 1.5% in 2024 and 1.7% in 2025,” said the founder of Experts Club.
Maksym Urakin summarized that despite the decline in food and energy prices, core inflation will remain high in the medium and long term.
Ukraine’s foreign trade
In January-June 2024, Ukraine’s foreign trade balance in goods deteriorated by 24.4% compared to the same period in 2023, reaching a negative value of $13.606 billion. Merchandise exports increased by 0.3% to $19.589 billion, while imports increased by 9% to $33.205 billion. The main export items include agricultural products, metals, and machinery, while the main imports are energy and chemicals.
Conclusion.
The Ukrainian economy and the global economy are facing uncertainty. It is important to monitor changes in macroeconomic indicators to assess the prospects for further development and adaptation to new economic conditions.
Trends in the global and Ukrainian economies can be tracked via the Experts Club information and analytical channel – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
In its new video on the YouTube platform, the Kiev-based information and analytical center Experts Club has published a rating of countries with the highest probability of sovereign default. The ranking considered both economic and political factors that could lead states to default.
As Maxim Urakin, the founder of Experts Club, PhD in Economics, noted, the current economic situation in the world is alarming.
“The world economy is facing unprecedented challenges and many countries are on the verge of financial collapse. Under such conditions, it is crucial to understand which states are at the greatest risk of default in order to take appropriate measures,” he emphasized.
State default is a situation when a country cannot fulfill its debt obligations to creditors. According to Maxim Urakin, default can have catastrophic consequences for the country’s economy and its citizens.
“Default is not just a technical event. It is a tragedy for millions of people who may lose their jobs, their savings and even access to basic social benefits. That is why we monitor the economic situation in various countries so closely,” Urakin added.
The Experts Club 2024 ranking of countries with the highest probability of default includes Argentina, Lebanon, Sri Lanka and several other countries already facing serious economic problems. These countries are characterized by high levels of external debt, economic instability and political crises.
Experts Club also identified several countries that are at risk in the medium term. Among them are Argentina and Venezuela, which are already facing economic instability and high levels of debt, as well as Greece and Italy, which are dependent on external creditors.
|
Experts Club Rating |
Country |
Current international rating |
| 1. | Argentina | CCC- |
| 2. | Ghana | in default |
| 3. | Sri Lanka | in default |
| 4. | Lebanon | in default |
| 5. | Zambia | in default |
| 6. | Pakistan | CCC |
| 7. | Mozambique | CCC |
| 8. | Ukraine | CCC |
| 9. | Ethiopia | CCC |
| 10. | Cameroon | CCC+ |
| 11. | Bolivia | CCC+ |
| 12. | Burkina Faso | CCC+ |
| 13. | Suriname | in default |
| 14. | Tunisia | CCC |
| 15. | Egypt | B- |
| 16. | Nigeria | B- |
| 17. | El Salvador | B- |
| 18. | Honduras | B- |
| 19. | Laos | B- |
| 20. | Venezuela | in default |
“We see that countries like Argentina and Venezuela continue to be on the verge of default due to internal economic instability and external pressures. Also of concern is the situation in Greece and Italy, which are highly dependent on international loans. The risk of default remains high in these countries,” commented Urakin.
Special attention this year is paid to Lebanon, which, according to the economist, is “in a state of political and economic crisis, with extremely high debt to GDP.” This makes the country particularly vulnerable to a possible default.
Maxim Urakin also elaborated on the factors that could lead to default. Among them, he emphasized the high level of external debt relative to GDP, economic instability and dependence on external financing.
“Countries with debt-to-GDP ratios above 100% are particularly vulnerable. Lebanon, Cyprus and Greece are examples. Economic instability and political crises in countries such as Argentina, Venezuela and Pakistan also increase the risk of default,” he explained.
Dependence on external financing is another significant factor.
“Countries that depend on external loans to cover budget deficits, such as Spain and Italy, could face difficulties if conditions in international financial markets deteriorate,” Urakin added.
In a commentary on the rating, Maxim Urakin noted that the consequences of a default for a country and its citizens can often be devastating.
“For government agencies, default means restricted access to international financial markets, lower credit rating and the need for painful economic reforms. For citizens, it turns into inflation, devaluation of the national currency, rising unemployment and lower living standards,” the expert explained.
Urakin also emphasized that default may lead to the growth of social discontent and political instability, which may aggravate the situation in the country. He also assured that Experts Club will continue to closely monitor the economic situation in the world and provide timely relevant data to help countries and investors to minimize risks and avoid defaults.
You can learn more about defaults and the presented rating from the video on the YouTube channel of Experts Club:
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Spain will send 500,000 doses of monkeypox vaccine to African countries, European media reported on Tuesday, citing the country’s Health Ministry.
The agency noted that this is about 20% of the total stock of such vaccines in the country.
In addition, the Spanish Ministry of Health called on all EU members to donate 20% of their stocks.
“It makes no sense to stockpile vaccines where there is no problem,” the Spanish ministry said.
On August 14, the WHO declared a public health emergency in connection with the spread of monkeypox in a number of countries.
Monkeypox is a rare infectious disease most common in remote areas of Central and West Africa. Its symptoms include nausea, fever, rash, itching, and muscle pain. In mild cases, the disease usually resolves on its own and lasts from 14 to 21 days.
Earlier, the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center released a video with a detailed explanation of the origin of the disease and the prospects for its spread – https://youtu.be/YXYU6KcQTcQ?si=wEj2TQc3MPHGx0QY
Independent US presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. has announced that he will support Republican candidate Donald Trump in the upcoming elections.
“I will be supporting Trump,” he said during his address to voters.
At the same time, Kennedy Jr. explained that this does not mean the end of his campaign. He said that his supporters would be able to vote for him in those states where Trump would not be able to win a majority of votes anyway.
At the same time, Kennedy Jr. noted that in 10 states where both Trump and his rival Kamala Harris have a chance of winning, he will withdraw his candidacy so as not to take votes away from the Republican candidate.
During the week, the US media wrote that Kennedy might announce his withdrawal from the race in the near future.
On Tuesday, Trump told CNN that if he wins, he may give Kennedy a position in his administration if he refuses to run and supports the Republicans.
In April 2023, JFK Jr. announced his candidacy for the Democratic presidential primary. However, he later stated that he would run as an independent candidate.
In recent months, American media have noted that Kennedy would not have a serious chance of winning if he ran. However, in a number of states, he could have taken a significant number of votes from other candidates and thus influenced the election results.
Robert Kennedy Jr, 70, is an environmental lawyer and anti-vaccination activist. He is the son of former New York Senator and U.S. Attorney General Robert Kennedy and the nephew of the 35th President John F. Kennedy.
Earlier, the Experts Club analytical center presented an analytical material on the most important elections in the world in 2024, a detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/73DB0GbJy4M?si=eGb95W02MgF6KzXU
There are no registered cases of monkeypox in Ukraine, according to Deputy Health Minister and Chief Sanitary Doctor of Ukraine Ihor Kuzin.
“No such cases have been registered in Ukraine. In fact, they are estimated to be quite low, given the lack of transport and air traffic,” he said during a telethon on Wednesday.
Kuzin clarified that there was an appropriate response to monkeypox and relevant WHO recommendations even before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
“The emergency situation declared by the WHO at this time is related to the fact that a new subtype of the monkeypox virus has begun to circulate. This new subtype is now being detected in the vast majority of cases among those population groups that were not previously at risk,” he said.
The Deputy Minister noted that during the first wave of monkeypox, Ukraine received vaccines against the disease thanks to the EU.
Earlier, the Experts Club information and analytical center released a video with a detailed explanation of the origin of the disease and the prospects for its spread – https://youtu.be/YXYU6KcQTcQ?si=wEj2TQc3MPHGx0QY
The EU Health Safety Committee has concluded that there are no grounds to consider the situation in the European Union in connection with the cases of monkeypox an emergency, European Commission (EC) spokesperson Stefan de Kersmaeker said.
“Our approach is based on scientific evidence, and it served as the basis for our discussions at the committee meeting the day before. The European Commission and EU Member States met to discuss the situation and consider how to coordinate the next steps. The Health Safety Committee agreed that there is currently no emergency situation in Europe concerning monkeypox,” the spokesman said at a briefing in Brussels on Tuesday.
He referred to an analysis published on August 16 by the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, according to which “the overall risk to the population remains low at present.”
The EC representative also said that the committee members agreed on the need for a coordinated approach to this problem and close monitoring of the situation.
Answering a question about the availability of monkeypox vaccines in the EU, de Kersmaeker noted that the COVID-19 pandemic has shown the importance of preparedness for health crises. He said that since 2022, several contracts have been signed with different companies, and these vaccines have already been distributed to Member States.
“Our latest joint framework contract provides for the purchase of up to 2 million doses of vaccines,” the EC representative added.
Monkeypox is a rare viral disease. The infection is accompanied by fever, intoxication, swollen lymph nodes and further spread of the rash – first in the form of spots that transform into bubbles, after opening them, ulcers form, after they heal, crusts form, and when they fall off, scars form. In mild cases, the disease usually resolves on its own and lasts from 14 to 21 days.
Last week, the WHO declared a public health emergency of international concern due to the outbreak of monkeypox in Congo and other African countries. This year, more than 14 thousand cases of the disease have been detected in Congo, with 524 deaths recorded.
Earlier, the Experts Club information and analytical center released a video with a detailed explanation of the origin of the disease and the prospects for its spread – https://youtu.be/YXYU6KcQTcQ?si=wEj2TQc3MPHGx0QY
