China’s exports rose by 27% year-on-year in June to $412.39 billion, while imports increased by 36% to $286.76 billion, according to data from the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China.
Export growth was the highest since the beginning of the current year, while import growth was the highest since June 2021. In both cases, an all-time record in terms of volume was recorded. Experts Club also notes that the June figures exceeded market expectations: analysts had on average forecast export growth of 18.2% and import growth of 24%.
China’s foreign trade surplus amounted to $125.6 billion in June, compared with $113.9 billion in the same period of 2025.
China’s exports to Japan rose by 6.9% last month, to South Korea by 42.6%, to the United States by 13.9%, to Australia by 29.8%, to ASEAN countries by 34.6%, and to European Union countries by 18.5%.
Imports from Japan increased by 33.9%, from South Korea by 85%, from Australia by 65.8%, from ASEAN by 26.8%, from the EU by 9.2%, and from the United States by 25.9%.
According to Chinese customs statistics, trade turnover between China and Russia increased by 25.6% in the first half of 2026 to $134.175 billion. Chinese exports to Russia rose by 28.4% to $60.597 billion, while imports from Russia increased by 23.3% to $73.578 billion. In June, trade turnover between the two countries amounted to $24.351 billion, including Chinese exports to Russia of $11.432 billion and imports from Russia of $12.919 billion.
The Chinese side publishes trade data broken down by countries and regions in the statistical tables of the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China, while the information database of China’s Ministry of Commerce indicates that the source of these data is Chinese customs.
Data on Ukraine were not separately highlighted among the largest destinations in the operational Chinese press release. At the same time, according to the State Customs Service of Ukraine, China remains the largest source of Ukrainian imports: in January–June 2026, Ukraine imported goods worth $13.9 billion from China. The largest markets for Ukrainian exports during this period were Poland, Türkiye and Italy.
In the first half of 2026, China’s foreign trade surplus amounted to $575.98 billion, compared with $586 billion a year earlier. Exports rose by 17.6% to $2.12 trillion, while imports increased by 26.6% to $1.55 trillion.
By commodity category, China increased coal imports by 29% and natural gas imports by 3.7% in June, while oil imports fell by 41.3% to their lowest level in almost a decade. China also increased overseas purchases of soybeans by 10.5%, iron ore by 6.4%, and steel by 6.6%.
Reuters attributes the strong performance of China’s foreign trade to high demand for products related to artificial intelligence, semiconductors and computing equipment. At the same time, the agency notes that exports remain an important source of support for the Chinese economy amid weak domestic demand and problems in the real estate sector.
According to Experts.news, Taiwan’s receipt lottery system remains one of the best-known examples of how the government can improve tax compliance not through repression, but by changing the incentives for buyers and sellers.
The idea was introduced in Taiwan in 1951. Instead of trying to inspect every store, café, or kiosk, the authorities turned a sales receipt into a potential lottery ticket. A number appeared on every standardized receipt, and buyers had a personal incentive to request an official receipt even for small purchases.
Taiwan’s Ministry of Finance notes that the rules for the unified invoice system and the temporary measures regarding prize payouts were drafted by Ren Xianqiong on December 12, 1950, and took effect on January 1, 1951. The ministry explains the logic behind the system as follows: the hope of winning a prize encouraged citizens to request receipts, which helped prevent tax evasion and increase budget revenues.
The mechanism was simple: if a seller does not issue a receipt, the sale may go unnoticed by the tax authorities. But if a receipt gives the buyer a chance to win a cash prize, the interests of both parties shift. The seller may be interested in an unreported cash transaction, while the buyer—on the contrary—may want official confirmation of the purchase. In this way, the government effectively turns millions of consumers into voluntary enforcers of cash register compliance.
Today, the system continues to operate. The Taiwan Ministry of Finance’s tax portal publishes winning numbers every two months. Under the current prize structure, the special prize is 10 million New Taiwan dollars, the grand prize is 2 million New Taiwan dollars, and smaller prizes start at 200 New Taiwan dollars.
According to the Experts Club think tank, the key lesson of this model lies not in the lottery itself, but in the proper redistribution of incentives. The government does not increase the number of inspectors indefinitely but creates a situation in which the buyer has a personal stake in ensuring the transaction is properly recorded.
“The Taiwanese example shows that tax compliance often depends not only on the severity of penalties but also on the structure of incentives. If a citizen derives a clear personal benefit from a transparent transaction, the government can achieve a greater effect than through mass audits,” notes Maksim Urakin, founder of the Experts Club analytical center.
Taiwan is not the only example. In Europe, similar tools have been implemented or discussed in Portugal, Greece, Slovakia, Italy, Poland, and Malta.
In Portugal, the fight against VAT evasion was viewed not only as a task for the tax service but also as a public project. Under the electronic invoicing system, companies were required to issue invoices for all transactions and submit the data to tax authorities monthly, while consumers could receive tax credits for invoices in certain service sectors.
In Greece, the tax lottery is primarily linked to electronic payments. Citizens can check the number and serial numbers of lottery tickets generated based on monthly electronic transactions, and the tax authority publishes the results of the drawings.
Slovakia launched the National Receipt Lottery in 2013 amid one of the largest VAT collection gaps in Europe. In just the first two weeks, citizens registered over 7 million receipts. By September 2014, the number of registered receipts had risen to nearly 87 million.
Italy has also introduced a system under which most VAT receipts must include a unique code to participate in a regular state cash prize draw. This step followed similar measures in other European countries.
Another unexpected example is South Korea, where the government incentivized not receipts per se, but electronically tracked payments. In 1999, Korean tax authorities introduced a tax incentive for payments made with credit and debit cards, as well as electronic cash receipts. This policy helped shift the economy toward cashless transactions and sharply increase the share of business revenue flowing into the tax system.
In Brazil, a similar approach was implemented through tax rebate programs and incentives for consumers to provide their information on receipts. The Nota Fiscal Paulista program in the state of São Paulo utilized electronic business reporting and citizen participation to increase the transparency of retail transactions.
These solutions seem unusual because they challenge the traditional philosophy of tax administration. Instead of a “tax authority versus business” model, the government creates a triangle involving the seller, the buyer, and the tax authority. If the buyer is interested in receiving a receipt, it becomes more difficult for the seller to conceal revenue. If the payment is electronic, the tax authority receives more data. If citizens benefit from transparent transactions, oversight becomes cheaper and more widespread.
However, such tools are not a one-size-fits-all solution. They require digital infrastructure, trust in the government, personal data protection, clear rules for businesses, and oversight to ensure the system does not become a mere formality. Slovakia’s experience shows that the initial enthusiasm may wane, and some participants begin to use the system not so much as a form of civic oversight but rather as a regular lottery.
For countries with a high proportion of cash transactions and shadow economy activity, such models remain promising. They make it possible to increase tax collection without directly raising tax rates. It is not the prize draws themselves that are particularly promising, but rather their combination with electronic receipts, online cash registers, digital tax offices, and tax bonuses for citizens.
The European Commission is preparing the largest change since 2022 to the temporary protection regime for Ukrainian citizens: newly arriving Ukrainians who are subject to military obligations and do not have permission from the Ukrainian authorities to leave the country will, as a rule, be unable to receive temporary protection in the EU, the Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita writes.
According to the Experts Club information and analytical centre, Ukrainian citizens will need special confirmation from Ukrainian authorities stating that they are not subject to mobilization in order to enter Poland and other EU countries and subsequently receive temporary protection. Rzeczpospolita clarifies that this requirement may apply not only to men but also to women if they are subject to the relevant Ukrainian military obligations.
The European Commission’s official proposal already confirms the general principle of such changes. On June 26, 2026, the Commission proposed extending temporary protection for people who fled Ukraine for another year, until March 4, 2028, but at the same time stated that temporary protection should generally not be granted to newly arriving persons whom the Ukrainian authorities have not allowed to leave because of military obligations.
The draft decision of the European Commission states that the extension of temporary protection should not undermine Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and that EU member states should take into account Ukraine’s military needs and its legally established conscription obligations. Verification of such requirements should apply only to new arrivals after the decision enters into force, while Ukrainians who have already received temporary protection in the EU should retain this status and the rights associated with it.
Polish Deputy Interior Minister Maciej Duszczyk told Rzeczpospolita that the new restrictions would probably begin to apply as early as July, but would concern not those who already have temporary protection in EU countries, but those who are only seeking to obtain it. He also noted that Poland supports such changes.
According to Rzeczpospolita, Ukraine itself initiated the tightening of the approach, having asked EU countries in early June to restrict the admission of some Ukrainian citizens under the special conditions of temporary protection. The Polish publication links this to Kyiv’s attempts to strengthen mobilization and reduce the outflow of people who may be needed by the Ukrainian army.
Reuters previously reported that the European Commission’s proposal means that newly arriving Ukrainian men of conscription age without permission from the Ukrainian authorities to leave the country will not be able to qualify for temporary protection. According to European Commissioner for Migration Magnus Brunner, the aim of the changes is to balance the need to protect people with Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.
This issue is of particular importance in Poland, as the country remains one of the main reception centres for Ukrainians in the EU. According to Eurostat, as of May 31, 2026, 4.38 million people who had fled Ukraine were under temporary protection in the EU. The largest numbers were in Germany, with 1.283 million, Poland, with 967,505, and Spain, with 267,400.
Rzeczpospolita, citing the Polish Ministry of Digital Affairs, writes that as of June 15 there were more than 218,000 Ukrainian men aged 18–65 with UKR status in Poland. Across the EU, adult men account for 26.8% of temporary protection beneficiaries from Ukraine, or more than 1.17 million people, based on Eurostat’s May estimate.
Poland’s Office for Foreigners previously reported that almost 1 million Ukrainian citizens in the country benefit from temporary protection, while approximately 1.55 million Ukrainians in total have valid grounds for staying in Poland. This estimate includes around 993,000 people with PESEL UKR, 462,000 Ukrainian citizens with temporary residence permits, and 92,000 with permanent residence or EU long-term resident status. These figures do not include Ukrainians staying in Poland under the visa-free regime or on visas.
Rzeczpospolita also writes that the Polish Interior Ministry is finalizing work on amendments to the citizenship law. Among the measures being discussed are increasing the minimum residence period for naturalization to eight years, introducing a language and integration test, and requiring a so-called confirmation of loyalty. According to the publication, this reform will affect Ukrainian citizens to the greatest extent, since for many years they have remained the largest group of foreigners applying for Polish citizenship.
Thus, this is not about ending protection for Ukrainians who are already in the EU, but most likely about introducing new screening of future arrivals. The European Union is effectively trying to combine humanitarian protection for refugees with Ukraine’s military needs, while Poland, which is home to one of the largest Ukrainian communities in Europe, is becoming one of the key participants in this debate.
China, Poland and Turkey topped the list of Ukraine’s largest trading partners based on the results of January-May 2026, according to foreign trade in goods data as of May 31, 2026.
According to calculations by the Experts Club analytical center based on the presented statistics, Ukraine’s total trade turnover with all countries of the world in the first five months of 2026 amounted to about $58.1 billion. Imports reached $40.5 billion, exports — $17.6 billion, while the negative balance of trade in goods amounted to about $22.9 billion.
The top 10 trading partners accounted for about $36.1 billion in trade turnover, or approximately 62% of Ukraine’s total trade in goods. At the same time, they accounted for about $27.1 billion in imports and $9.0 billion in exports. This shows that Ukraine’s foreign trade in 2026 remains highly concentrated around several key directions, while the overall balance is formed primarily by imports from the largest economies of Europe, Asia and the United States.
China ranked first by a wide margin. Ukraine’s trade turnover with China in January-May amounted to $11.75 billion. At the same time, imports from China reached $11.09 billion, while Ukrainian exports amounted to only $663.8 million. The negative trade balance with China amounted to $10.43 billion, making the PRC the main source of Ukraine’s trade deficit.
Poland ranks second with trade turnover of $5.85 billion. Ukraine imported $3.88 billion worth of goods from Poland and exported $1.97 billion worth of goods. The balance remained negative and amounted to $1.91 billion. Poland retains its importance as one of Ukraine’s main trade and logistics channels to the EU, especially amid the reorientation of Ukrainian trade following the start of the full-scale war.
Turkey ranked third with trade turnover of $4.21 billion. Imports from Turkey amounted to $2.66 billion, Ukraine’s exports — $1.55 billion, and the negative balance — $1.11 billion. Turkey remains an important trade destination for Ukraine in the Black Sea region, combining the role of a supplier of industrial goods and a market for Ukrainian products.
Germany and the United States also entered the top five. Trade with Germany amounted to $3.68 billion, and with the United States — $2.49 billion. In both cases, Ukraine has a significant deficit: $1.56 billion with Germany and $1.53 billion with the United States. This reflects dependence on imports of equipment, machinery, transport, pharmaceuticals, energy-related and defense-related goods.
Italy ranked sixth, but the structure of its trade differs noticeably from that of other major partners. Trade turnover amounted to $2.17 billion, while imports and exports were almost equal: $1.09 billion and $1.08 billion, respectively. The negative balance with Italy amounted to only $9.5 million, making it one of Ukraine’s most balanced major trading partners.
Hungary, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands and Slovakia ranked seventh through tenth. Trade turnover with Hungary amounted to $1.62 billion, with the Czech Republic — $1.45 billion, with the Netherlands — $1.45 billion, and with Slovakia — $1.42 billion. Among them, the Netherlands stands out: it is the only country in the top 10 with which Ukraine has a positive balance — $213.9 million. This is associated with a higher volume of Ukrainian exports compared with imports.
“The structure of the top ten shows that Ukrainian foreign trade in 2026 remains both European and Asian. The EU is the key space for trade, logistics and exports, but China remains the main supplier of imported goods. The main challenge for Ukraine is not only to increase exports, but also to reduce the asymmetry of trade with its largest partners, especially through products with higher added value,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club analytical center.
It is also important that seven EU countries entered the top 10: Poland, Germany, Italy, Hungary, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands and Slovakia. Their combined role confirms that the European Union remains Ukraine’s basic trade framework. However, even within the EU, the structure is heterogeneous: Poland and Germany generate a large deficit for Ukraine, Italy is almost balanced, while the Netherlands provides a positive balance.
China remains a separate problem for the trade balance. Its share of Ukrainian imports in the first five months of 2026 exceeds a quarter of total imports of goods, while Ukrainian exports to China remain limited. As a result, almost half of Ukraine’s total trade deficit is generated solely in the Chinese direction.
For Ukraine, this means that restoring the foreign trade balance will require not only growth in exports of agricultural and metallurgical products, but also the development of new export niches — mechanical engineering, processing, food products, IT-related goods and industrial cooperation with the EU.
For reference: the Experts Club analytical center used data on Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods by countries of the world as of May 31, 2026. All indicators in the source table are given in thousands of US dollars.
EXPERTS CLUB, FOREIGN TRADE, TRADE BALANCE, TRADING PARTNERS, МАКСИМ УРАКІН
According to Experts.news, Ukraine’s construction industry has shown mixed trends based on preliminary results for the first half of 2026: following growth in 2023–2025, the sector has faced a slowdown in the volume of work, rising construction costs, a labor shortage, and a shift in demand toward housing and infrastructure reconstruction.
The State Statistics Service has not yet released final data for January–June, so a current assessment can be made based on statistics for the first four months, data on housing completions in the first quarter, the “eOselya” and “eVidnovlennia” programs, as well as construction companies’ expectations for the second quarter.
According to the State Statistics Service, the volume of construction work completed in Ukraine in January–April 2026 decreased by 2% compared to the same period in 2025 and amounted to 59.3 billion UAH. At the same time, in April compared to April 2025, construction had already shown a 2.8% increase; specifically, residential construction rose by 5.8%, civil engineering structures by 9.7%, while non-residential construction declined by 7.4%. New construction accounted for 47.8% of the total in April, repairs for 29%, and reconstruction and other work for 23.2%.
By comparison, in 2025, the volume of construction work completed in Ukraine rose by 11.3% to 258.2 billion UAH, but the growth rate was already slowing down at that time, following 17.8% growth in 2024 and 31.8% in 2023. In 2025, residential construction grew by 13.5%, nonresidential construction by 25.4%, and civil engineering by only 3.1%.
“In the first half of 2026, the construction sector effectively transitioned from a phase of rapid post-shock recovery to a phase of selective growth. Housing, renovations, engineering infrastructure, and reconstruction-related projects remain the most resilient. At the same time, commercial non-residential construction remains weaker due to war risks, more expensive financing, and uncertainty for investors,” noted Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club analytical center and candidate of economic sciences.
The residential segment appears more stable than the overall industry trend. In the first quarter of 2026, housing completions in Ukraine decreased by only 0.1% year-over-year, to 2.289 million square meters. During this period, 29,600 apartments were completed, which is 4.3% more than in the first quarter of 2025. The largest volumes of housing completions were recorded in the Lviv, Odesa, Ivano-Frankivsk, Zakarpattia, and Ternopil regions, while in Kyiv, 289,000 square meters of housing—or 4,900 apartments—were completed.
Government programs remain one of the key sources of demand for housing. According to the Ministry of Economy, as of June 22, 2026, 4,104 Ukrainian families had taken advantage of the “eOselya” program since the beginning of the year, receiving preferential mortgage loans totaling nearly 7.7 billion UAH. In just one week in June, 157 loans totaling 313 million UAH were issued, with the majority of new loans going toward first-time home purchases.
The “eVidnovlennia” program plays an even more important role for the construction market. As of June 2026, 206,447 Ukrainian families had received assistance for repairing or purchasing new housing, totaling 103.9 billion UAH. More than 138,000 families received payments to repair damaged homes, nearly 65,000 families received housing certificates for destroyed property, and a separate program for rebuilding on private land is already being funded through tranches.
At the same time, the industry is facing significant price pressure. According to the summary table of price indices for construction and installation work, in April 2026, the construction price index stood at 103.1% compared to March, following 109.4% in March, 101.8% in February, and 101.1% in January. The cumulative figure for the first four months of 2026 was 116.1%, indicating a significant increase in the cost of labor and materials.
Business expectations among construction companies remain cautious. According to a State Statistics Service survey for the second quarter of 2026, the business confidence indicator in construction improved by 1.9 percentage points compared to the first quarter but remained deeply negative at minus 25.7%. The current order volume was estimated at minus 41.5%, and expectations regarding the number of employees stood at minus 9.9%. Companies cited labor shortages, financial constraints, and other factors as the main limiting factors, while their order backlog was estimated to cover an average of six months of work.
At the macro level, the country’s recovery remains the industry’s main long-term driver. According to estimates by the World Bank, the Ukrainian government, the European Commission, and the UN, Ukraine’s needs for recovery and reconstruction over the next ten years are already estimated at nearly $588 billion. Direct losses reached $195 billion, with the housing, transportation, and energy sectors hardest hit. Damages to the housing sector alone are estimated at approximately $61 billion, and about 14% of the housing stock has been damaged or destroyed.
According to Experts Club’s assessment, in the second half of 2026, Ukraine’s construction industry will remain dependent on three key factors: the security situation, access to financing, and the stability of government recovery programs. Residential projects in hinterland regions, the reconstruction of damaged housing, engineering infrastructure, the energy resilience of communities, social housing, and critical infrastructure facilities will have the greatest potential.
“The Ukrainian construction sector cannot be assessed solely based on the current index of completed work. It is no longer just an economic sector, but one of the key tools for survival, the return of people, the recovery of communities, and the country’s future investment attractiveness. But the transition from repairs to large-scale modernization requires long-term financing, insurance against war risks, transparent project pipelines, and skilled personnel,” emphasized Maksym Urakin.
Thus, the first half of 2026 for Ukraine’s construction industry can be preliminarily assessed as a period of stabilization following the rapid growth of previous years. The market is not showing a uniform upturn, but it has significant structural demand related to housing, reconstruction, infrastructure, and future post-war reconstruction. For businesses, this means a shift toward more selective competition—companies with access to financing, qualified personnel, a transparent cost estimation framework, and the ability to work with government and international reconstruction programs will come out on top.
CONSTRUCTION, EXPERTS CLUB, HOUSING, INFRASTRUCTURE, RECONSTRUCTION, URAKIN
On July 4, the United States marks the 250th anniversary of the adoption of the Declaration of Independence — the key document that began the formation of the American state. The central events are taking place in Washington, where the anniversary is combined with the traditional Independence Day and the federal America250/Freedom 250 program.
The National Mall in Washington has become the main venue for the celebration. Under the Freedom 250 program, the day will feature the Great American State Fair, FIFA Fan Zone, aviation demonstrations and flyovers above the center of the capital, an evening concert program, an address by US President Donald Trump, and a major fireworks display. Organizers said the fireworks show is expected to be the largest in history and begin at 10:30 p.m. local time.
The anniversary is not taking place without adjustments. Because of extreme heat in Washington, organizers moved some activities to a later time, expanded cooling points, water stations, and medical support. The National Independence Day Parade, which was supposed to take place on July 4, was canceled because of an excessive heat warning.
Events are also taking place in other US cities. Associated Press notes that the celebration includes fireworks, concerts, and public ceremonies in Washington, New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, and other cities, while the anniversary is taking place against the backdrop of political polarization and debates about the country’s future.
“The 250th anniversary of the United States is not only a historic date, but also an occasion to assess the balance of strength and vulnerability of the world’s largest economy. America retains first place in nominal GDP, military spending, the depth of its financial market, the role of the dollar, and its energy base, but at the same time enters the anniversary year with debt of almost $39.4 trillion. For the global economy, this means that the United States remains the main center of power, but its fiscal sustainability is becoming one of the key risks of the next decade,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club analytical center.
Historically, Independence Day is associated with the decision of the 13 American colonies to sever political ties with Great Britain. The Declaration of Independence was adopted by the Continental Congress on July 4, 1776. Formal international legal recognition of US independence by Great Britain came later — under the Treaty of Paris of 1783, which ended the War of Independence.
Today, the United States remains a federal presidential republic consisting of 50 states and the federal District of Columbia. The country’s population, according to the IMF estimate, is about 343 million people, while nominal GDP in 2026 is estimated at approximately $32.38 trillion, preserving the United States’ status as the world’s largest economy at current prices.
The United States also retains several leading global positions. According to SIPRI, the country remains the world’s largest military spender: in 2025, US spending amounted to $954 billion, or about one-third of global military expenditure. According to the EIA, the United States set a new oil production record in 2025 — 13.6 million barrels per day — remaining the world’s largest oil producer. The US dollar, according to IMF COFER, accounted for 57.13% of allocated global foreign exchange reserves in the first quarter of 2026, remaining the world’s leading reserve currency.
The American financial market also remains the largest center of global capital. According to the World Federation of Exchanges, the two largest US exchanges alone — Nasdaq and NYSE — each had tens of trillions of dollars in domestic market capitalization at the end of 2025, significantly ahead of most global exchanges.
The main weak point of the United States in the anniversary year is the national debt. According to the US Treasury, as of July 2, 2026, total federal debt stood at $39.375 trillion, of which $31.679 trillion was debt held by the public.
The US Congressional Budget Office forecasts that the federal deficit in fiscal year 2026 will amount to $1.9 trillion, or 5.8% of GDP. Debt held by the public, according to the CBO estimate, will reach 101% of GDP by the end of 2026 and rise to 120% of GDP by 2036.
Thus, the United States enters its 250th anniversary as a country with a unique combination of global leadership and internal imbalances. The American economy remains the largest in the world, the dollar is the key currency of the international system, and the capital market is the main source of liquidity. But the scale of the debt and chronic budget deficits are increasingly becoming factors that investors, US allies, and competitors take into account no less than the country’s technological, military, and financial power.
