The article collects and analyzes the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine. In connection with the entry into force of the Law of Ukraine “On Protection of the Interests of Business Entities during Martial Law or a State of War”, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine suspends the publication of statistical information for the period of martial law and for three months after its termination. The exception is the publication of information on the consumer price index, separate information on statistical indicators for 2021 and for the period January-February 2022. The article analyzes open data from the State Statistics Service, the National Bank, and think tanks.
Maksym Urakin, PhD in Economics, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the NBU, the UN, the IMF, and the World Bank.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
Maksym Urakin presented data from the National Bank of Ukraine on the improvement of the financial situation in 2023 compared to 2022 and the forecast for 2024.
“The baseline scenario of the NBU’s macroeconomic forecast assumes the continuation of prudent monetary and fiscal policies aimed at maintaining macrofinancial stability. Ukraine is also expected to fulfill its obligations under cooperation programs with international partners, which will continue to provide financial support in sufficient amounts. The forecast envisages a significant reduction in security risks starting in 2025, which will allow unblocking seaports, expanding opportunities for investment and economic activity, and facilitating the return of forced migrants to Ukraine. “, – emphasized Urakin.
The expert noted that the main risks for the economy remain the duration of the war and the instability of international assistance.
“Risks such as additional budgetary needs, in particular for maintaining defense capabilities and eliminating the consequences of destruction, as well as significant deficits, in particular in the energy sector, remain relevant. Significant damage to the port and energy infrastructure will limit exports, and the continued partial blocking of borders with certain EU countries for freight transportation will limit both imports and exports. Another risk is the deepening of negative migration trends,” the economist said.
According to the expert, the pace of international assistance to Ukraine decreased significantly in the fourth quarter of 2023
I quarter of 2024, which may negatively affect the economic recovery this year in the context of the war.
Prospects for the Global Economy
Maxim Urakin also analyzed the global economy, noting a slowdown in growth in 2024 to 2.2%.
“The analysis of the global GDP dynamics shows that the global economy continues to recover from the pandemic, but geopolitical instability has a restraining effect on this growth. According to Maxim Urakin, it is important to monitor developments and adapt to changing conditions to ensure sustainable economic growth in the future. In this context, Ukraine needs to focus on strengthening domestic political stability, restoring economic potential and continuing reforms to improve its post-war prospects and strengthen its position on the global stage,” the expert explains.
According to the expert, the current macroeconomic situation in Ukraine and the world requires further analysis. For Ukraine, the main challenges in the coming years will be the need to restore Ukraine after the war and manage the public debt.
Earlier, the Experts Club analytical center released a video on how the GDP of countries has changed in recent years, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=HO-KT2UC8pYdUwCH
Receipts of taxes, fees and mandatory payments to the general fund of the state budget of Ukraine, according to operational data, in April amounted to UAH 153.6 billion compared to UAH 164.3 billion in March and UAH 184.8 billion in February, such operational data (as of 16:00 on April 30) reported the Ministry of Finance on Tuesday.
According to its data, the most of all reduced receipts of payments from the State Tax Service – to 59.7 billion UAH from 105.7 billion UAH in March and 107.4 billion UAH in February, which is due to high payments in previous months of income tax, in particular, by banks, as well as advance payments.
It is pointed out that in April, income tax revenues amounted to only UAH 3.2 billion against UAH 60.1 billion in March and UAH 61.0 billion in February, but in April, part of its profit of UAH 38.64 billion was transferred to the budget by the National Bank, although the Ministry of Finance does not mention it in the summary.
As for other taxes, personal income tax and military levy increased to UAH 16.5 billion (UAH 15.7 billion) in April, rents to UAH 5.5 billion (UAH 1.4 billion), and excise tax to UAH 11.5 billion (UAH 9.2 billion).
Value added tax also increased to UAH 22.8 billion (UAH 18.0 billion): collected UAH 34.8 billion (UAH 29.0 billion), refunded – UAH 12.0 billion (UAH 11.1 billion).
Receipts from the State Customs Service increased in April to UAH 48.9 billion from UAH 45.8 billion in March and UAH 39.8 billion in February. As the head of the specialized parliamentary committee, Daniil Getmantsev, pointed out on Tuesday, about 2.5 billion hryvnias of additional revenue came from the unblocking of the Polish border over the past week.
The Finance Ministry pointed out that the monthly revenue estimate of the general fund of the state budget, according to operational data, was exceeded by 29.5% (+35 billion UAH), including by the State Tax Service – by 7.9% (+4.4 billion UAH), while the State Customs Service – by 14.5% (+6.2 billion UAH).
In addition, the general fund of the state budget received UAH 2.7 billion of international aid in the form of grants in April, compared to UAH 3.1 billion in March and UAH 31 billion in February.
“In general, according to operational data, at the end of April 2024, the general and special funds of the state budget received UAH 200.8 billion (UAH 225.9 billion in March and UAH 229.0 billion in February) of taxes, fees and other payments. In addition, about UAH 40.1 billion (in March – UAH 39.0 billion) in the form of ERUs was received by the Pension Fund and social insurance funds,” the ministry added, thanking taxpayers for your contribution to the support of the Ukrainian army and financial stability of the country.
Data on expenditures in April are not yet available.
As reported, the Verkhovna Rada adopted the state budget for 2024 with a deficit of UAH 1.57 trillion, or 20.6% of projected GDP. Revenues of the state budget-2024 are set at UAH 1.77 trillion (not taking into account possible grant aid), expenditures – UAH 3.36 trillion at an average annual exchange rate of UAH 40.7/$1.
State budget-2023 revenues amounted to UAH 2.67 trillion, of which grant aid amounted to UAH 0.43 trillion. Cash expenditures of the state budget for the past year exceeded UAH 4 trillion, and the deficit amounted to UAH 1.33 trillion at an average annual exchange rate of about 36.6 UAH/$1.
Earlier Experts Club analytical center and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis of how the GDP of the world’s countries has changed in recent years, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=BsZmIUERHSBJrO_3 Subscribe to Experts Club YouTube channel here – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub.
BUDGET, decreased in April, EXPERTS CLUB, GDP, MACROECONOMICS, MINISTRY OF FINANCE, TAXES, UKRAINE, URAKIN
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for January-March 2024 amounted to 4.5% (+/- 1%) from 3.6% (+/- 1%) at the end of January-February.
Growth accelerated to 4.6% (+/- 1%) in March from 3.9% (+/- 1%) in February and 3.5% (+/- 1%) in January this year, according to an estimate released on the website of the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine.
“In March 2024, the trend of recovery growth continued, supported by the stable operation of the Ukrainian maritime corridor (stimulated activity in rail transport, metallurgy and metal ore mining), increased production capacity in the extractive industry, intensified production of mineral fertilizers, increased demand for construction materials, taking place against the backdrop of improved business sentiment … and revival of consumer activity …,” the Ministry of Economy pointed out.
The Ministry added that in March, almost all aggregated economic activities formed a positive contribution to the total GDP. Thus, exports of products of agricultural production and mining and metallurgical complex were provided by the Ukrainian Sea Corridor; and investment demand generated by the budget, as well as the increase in production capacity in the extractive industry formed a positive contribution of production types.
At the same time, it is pointed out that the dynamics of electricity production slowed down significantly in the context of significant rocket attacks in late March, which led to serious damage to energy infrastructure and will require a significant period of time and resources to restore it.
As reported, the National Bank of Ukraine on April 25 worsened its forecast for the country’s GDP growth this year from 3.6% to 3% after 5.3% last year.
When approving the draft state budget for the second reading in early November 2023, the government forecasted GDP growth of 4.6% this year.
Earlier Experts Club analytical center and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis of how the GDP of the world’s countries has changed in recent years, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=BsZmIUERHSBJrO_3 Subscribe to Experts Club youtube channel here – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
EXPERTS CLUB, GDP, MACROECONOMICS, MINISTRY OF ECONOMY, UKRAINE, УРАКІНА
The National Bank of Ukraine has raised its forecast of international reserves to $43.4 billion at the end of this year from $40.4 billion and to $44.3 billion at the end of next year from $42.1 billion.
“Compared to the previous forecast, the risk of insufficient international financing this year has significantly weakened, but the risks of rhythmicity of its receipt remain,” the NBU said in a press release on Thursday.
The central bank reminded that in March, about $9 billion was received from international partners, which allowed to increase international reserves to almost $44 billion.
In addition, in recent days, Ukraine has received positive news from the United States about the approval of a military and financial assistance package, and another tranche of EUR 1.5 billion has been received from the EU.
“In view of this, Ukraine can count on $38 billion of external budgetary assistance this year,” the NBU said.
According to its updated forecast, the estimate of the current account deficit this year has been downgraded from $16.9 billion to $20.2 billion, but next year it has been improved from $19.8 billion to $18.2 billion.
For more details on macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the world, GDP of major countries and other economic topics, please see one of the video analyzes of the Experts club think tank – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=Ymo-FlMFNGfLLdK-
You can subscribe to the Experts club channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
EXPERTS CLUB, GDP, international reserve, MACROECONOMICS, NATIONAL BANK
The European Parliament of the current convocation will hold its last plenary session this week. The new parliament will be elected in the European elections in the EU member states to be held from June 6 to 9.
During a press conference held on Monday in Strasbourg before the session, the head of the EP press service, Jame Duch, said that 600 journalists would cover the last session of the parliament, and 90 bills would be put to a vote. Among them is a bill to extend Ukraine’s liberal trade regime, which also provides protective measures for EU farmers. The vote will take place on Tuesday. In total, from 2019 to 2024, this ninth parliament passed 3,599 pieces of legislation.
The press service of the European Parliament told Interfax-Ukraine that in the last two years of the institution’s work alone, from September 2021 to April 2024, 40 resolutions related to Ukraine were adopted.
In front of the EP building, among the flags of the European Union member states, which are installed in two parallel rows, the flag of Ukraine, which has been raised since the day of Russia’s invasion, continues to fly. The Ukrainian flag is first, next to the EU flag, symbolizing support. “The Parliament has played a key role in the EU’s response to Russia’s war of aggression, including several rounds of macro-financial assistance, acting to support increased munitions production and the Ukraine Facility,” Duch said.
Earlier, Experts Club and Maksim Urakin presented an analytical material on the most important elections in the world in 2024, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/73DB0GbJy4M
You can subscribe to the channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
France, India and Greece are openly arming Armenia, and Baku will take serious measures if the situation poses a threat to Azerbaijan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has said.
“We cannot just sit and wait. We have clearly communicated our position to the Armenian government and the parties that are trying to take care of Armenia today. If we see a serious threat to ourselves, we will have to take serious measures,” Aliyev said on Tuesday at a meeting in Baku with participants of the international forum “COP29 and Green Vision for Azerbaijan” organized at the ADA University.
The President noted: “France, India and Greece are openly arming Armenia and are trying to prove something to Azerbaijan in this way.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank created a video analysis of the post-war situation in the Caucasus – https://youtu.be/reyUMjFBFhU?si=qpqLleFVqZJ30GuV
