Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party candidate and son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, finished first in Brazil’s presidential election on October 4, 2026, receiving 47.03% of valid votes. Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured 45.16%. A runoff election will take place on October 25, according to the Experts Club information and analytical center.
Bolsonaro received 56.10 million votes, compared with Lula’s 53.88 million, leaving a gap of approximately 2.22 million votes. Writer Augusto Cury finished third with 2.89%, followed by Renan Santos with 2.24% and Ronaldo Caiado with 2.18%. Approximately 119.3 million valid votes were cast.
The first-round results surprised most polling organizations, which had predicted either a narrow Lula lead or a statistical tie. Meanwhile, more than 33.4 million Brazilians, or 21.1% of registered voters, abstained from voting. This represented the highest first-round presidential election abstention rate since 1998.
Alexander Pozniy, director of the research company Active Group, said the results demonstrated the continuing political strength of Bolsonarism following Jair Bolsonaro’s departure.
“The first round showed that Bolsonarism in Brazil has not only survived Jair Bolsonaro’s departure but has also proved capable of transferring political capital to the next generation. Lula’s problem is that he has already mobilized a significant part of his traditional electorate, while Flávio Bolsonaro now has an opportunity to consolidate the votes of most candidates from the right-wing and center-right camps,” Pozniy said.
Bolsonaro’s position strengthened after Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado and several right-wing parties announced their support. Meanwhile, nearly 9 million votes cast for eliminated candidates remain an important potential source of support in the runoff.
The parliamentary elections provided Bolsonaro with another advantage. The Liberal Party won 121 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and increased its representation in the Senate to 28 seats. Together with its allies, a potential Bolsonaro bloc could control approximately 259 seats in the lower house and 48 in the Senate.
“A gap of two million votes with more than 33 million people not turning out to vote means that the second round cannot be considered a foregone conclusion. But the candidates’ starting positions are not equal. Bolsonaro has already secured the support of several right-wing candidates and parties, while Lula will have to simultaneously mobilize his own base, attract moderate voters and reduce abstention,” Pozniy emphasized.
The geopolitical consequences of the election are also significant. Lula advocates Brazil’s strategic autonomy and maintaining balanced relations with the United States, China and BRICS. Bolsonaro favors closer political cooperation with US President Donald Trump’s administration while preserving economic ties with China.
For Ukraine, a change in Brazil’s administration could potentially lead to adjustments in the country’s diplomatic position on the Russia-Ukraine war. However, an automatic reversal of Brazilian foreign policy should not be assumed.
According to Experts Club, the runoff outcome will depend primarily on mobilizing voters who missed the first round, redistributing votes cast for eliminated candidates, public expectations regarding the economy and the cost of living, and Lula’s ability to overcome the political momentum Bolsonaro gained after October 4.
The second round is scheduled for October 25, 2026.
Brazil, India and Mexico recorded the world’s highest estimated numbers of deaths from interpersonal violence in 2023, while Russia ranked first in an expanded European sample both in absolute terms and per 100,000 population, reports the Experts Club information and analytical center, citing the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Global Burden of Disease 2023 study.
According to IHME estimates, around 435,700 people worldwide died from interpersonal violence in 2023, equivalent to roughly 1,200 deaths per day. The global rate was about 5.4 deaths per 100,000 population. However, the figures are modeled mortality estimates and should not automatically be equated with intentional homicides officially recorded by police.
Brazil had the highest estimated absolute number at 52,229 deaths. It was followed by India with 44,288, Mexico with 36,445, the United States with 24,528 and South Africa with 23,066. Nigeria recorded an estimated 18,188 deaths, Russia 16,760, Colombia 15,959, Ethiopia 11,634 and Venezuela 11,583. Brazil, India and Mexico together accounted for approximately 30.5% of the global estimate, while Brazil alone represented about 12%.
The ranking changes considerably when deaths are measured per 100,000 people. Among sovereign states, El Salvador had the highest IHME estimate at 56.3 per 100,000, followed by Haiti at 49.5, Lesotho at 47.1, Venezuela at 45.1 and Eswatini at 43.8. Brazil ranked 18th with 24.6 deaths per 100,000.
Experts Club stressed that IHME estimates for some countries differ substantially from UNODC figures and national police statistics. The data should therefore be interpreted as modeled estimates of mortality from interpersonal violence rather than a straightforward ranking of officially registered crime.
In the expanded European sample used by Experts Club, which also includes Türkiye, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, Russia ranked first with 11.3 deaths per 100,000 population and an estimated 16,760 deaths. Ukraine ranked second at 7.4 per 100,000 and approximately 2,894 deaths. Ukraine’s figure does not include deaths caused by the war, as GBD classifies interpersonal violence separately from conflict and terrorism.
Poland became the largest gold buyer among the world’s central banks in January-August 2026, increasing its reserves by approximately 98 tonnes, according to an Experts Club analysis based on World Gold Council (WGC) data published on October 6.
In August, global central banks continued actively increasing their gold reserves, purchasing another 39 tonnes on a net basis compared with 23 tonnes a month earlier. However, the ranking of cumulative purchases since the beginning of the year differs noticeably from the results of August alone.
According to the WGC, the largest gold buyers in January-August 2026 included:
Poland – about 98 tonnes
China – about 80 tonnes
Uzbekistan – about 50 tonnes
Kazakhstan – about 36 tonnes
Czech Republic – about 14 tonnes
The National Bank of Poland retained first place thanks to the continuation of its large-scale precious metal accumulation programme. In August alone, the Polish central bank purchased another approximately 7.8 tonnes.
As a result, Poland’s gold holdings approached 648 tonnes, while the National Bank’s strategic target is 700 tonnes.
China ranks second. In August, the People’s Bank of China was the largest buyer in the world, increasing its reserves by as much as 20.2 tonnes.
In January-August, China purchased about 80 tonnes of gold, while its official gold reserves reached approximately 2,387 tonnes. Gold accounts for about 9% of the country’s international reserves.
At the same time, China has continued buying the precious metal for 22 consecutive months, making it one of the most consistent buyers among the world’s largest central banks.
Uzbekistan ranks third, having increased its gold reserves by approximately 50 tonnes since the beginning of the year. In August, the country purchased another approximately 7.8 tonnes. The total volume of gold in Uzbekistan’s reserves reached approximately 439 tonnes, with the precious metal accounting for about 90% of the country’s international reserves.
Kazakhstan ranks fourth, with purchases of approximately 36 tonnes over eight months. In August, the National Bank of Kazakhstan added about 7.4 tonnes, bringing its gold holdings to approximately 377 tonnes. Gold accounts for about 79% of the country’s international reserves.
The Czech Republic rounds out the top five largest buyers. The Czech National Bank purchased 14 tonnes since the beginning of the year, including approximately 1.7 tonnes in August. The country’s total gold reserves reached around 86 tonnes.
Notably, the Czech Republic has been increasing its gold holdings for 42 consecutive months, implementing one of the most consistent reserve expansion programmes among European central banks.
At the same time, Turkey and Russia became the largest gold sellers since the beginning of 2026. Turkey reduced its reserves by approximately 82 tonnes, although in August it returned to purchases and bought about 2.9 tonnes. Russia sold about 56 tonnes in January-August, including approximately 6.2 tonnes in August.
The World Gold Council notes that the continued presence of the same countries among active buyers indicates the long-term nature of gold accumulation policies. Monthly changes in purchase volumes largely reflect the implementation schedules of these programmes, market conditions and the liquidity needs of individual countries.
According to the WGC, in January-August 2026 central banks reported net purchases of approximately 170 tonnes of gold. At the same time, officially recorded changes in reserves do not necessarily reflect total public-sector demand, as some central bank transactions become known with a delay or are not disclosed.
The World Gold Council regularly tracks changes in central banks’ official gold reserves based on data from the International Monetary Fund, national regulators and other official sources. The WGC regards central bank demand as one of the key factors in the global gold market.
Central banks, CHINA, CZECH REPUBLIC, EXPERTS CLUB, GOLD, gold reserves, KAZAKHSTAN, POLAND, UZBEKISTAN, WORLD GOLD COUNCIL
The Central Bank of Russia became the largest gold seller among the world’s central banks in August 2026, reducing its official gold reserves by approximately 6.2 tonnes, according to an Experts Club analysis based on data from the World Gold Council (WGC).
Among the notable gold sellers in August, the WGC highlights:
Russia – about 6.2 tonnes
Jordan – about 3.1 tonnes
Russia continued reducing its gold reserves after selling approximately 6 tonnes in July. In total, in January-August 2026, Russia’s official gold reserves decreased by approximately 56 tonnes.
Following the August sale, the amount of gold in Russia’s reserves stood at about 2,271 tonnes.
Jordan sold about 3.1 tonnes of gold in August. However, unlike Russia, the country remains a net buyer after the first eight months of the year: since the beginning of 2026, its gold reserves have increased by approximately 2 tonnes to 75 tonnes. Gold accounts for about 37% of Jordan’s international reserves.
At the same time, Turkey remains the largest gold seller for January-August, despite switching to purchases in August.
According to the WGC, Turkey has reduced its gold reserves by approximately 82 tonnes since the beginning of the year. The bulk of the sales occurred in the first quarter of 2026. In August, the trend changed, with the Turkish central bank purchasing about 2.9 tonnes of gold.
Russia ranks second among the largest sellers since the beginning of the year, with about 56 tonnes.
Thus, August showed a significant predominance of buyers over sellers: the world’s central banks collectively purchased 39 tonnes of gold on a net basis, compared with 23 tonnes in July.
The World Gold Council notes that the data cover officially reported changes in the reserves of central banks and other official institutions and may differ from the broader estimate of global central bank demand, which takes into account unreported purchases.
Central banks, EXPERTS CLUB, GOLD, gold reserves, JORDAN, RUSSIA, TURKEY, WORLD GOLD COUNCIL
Exports of Ukrainian IT services in January–August 2026 increased by 4% compared to the same period last year—to $4.46 billion, according to data from the National Bank of Ukraine analyzed by Experts Club.
In terms of foreign exchange revenue, the sector has effectively returned to the levels seen in the corresponding period of 2023, though it has not yet reached the peak figures of 2022.
In January–August 2022, the volume of IT exports was approximately 9% higher than the current figure.
Thus, the trend of recent years can be divided into two periods: after a record-breaking 2022, Ukrainian IT exports began to decline, and in 2026, they are once again showing growth.
The importance of IT for the entire Ukrainian services sector remains particularly significant. In the first eight months of 2026, Ukraine exported services worth $10.9 billion, which is approximately 6% higher than the figure for the same period last year.
IT accounted for 41% of this total—that is, more than $4 out of every $10 Ukraine earned from service exports.
The sector’s share of total foreign trade also remains significant. Total exports of goods and services for January–August amounted to $35.8 billion, of which $4.46 billion came from IT companies and specialists.
As a result, the IT sector accounts for about 12% of the country’s total exports—roughly one in every eight dollars of export revenue.
If current growth rates continue, the sector could end 2026 with its best performance in several years; however, growth rates will need to accelerate to return to the record levels seen in 2022.
Data source: National Bank of Ukraine.
Ukraine earned $4.46 billion from IT services exports in January–August 2026, with the technology sector accounting for about 12% of the country’s total exports of goods and services, according to data from the National Bank of Ukraine analyzed by the Experts Club research and analysis center.
Thus, approximately one in every eight dollars of Ukraine’s export revenue comes from IT services.
Ukraine’s total exports of goods and services for the first eight months of 2026 amounted to $35.8 billion and remained virtually unchanged compared to the same period last year.
The bulk of foreign exchange earnings continues to come from goods exports—$24.9 billion, or about 70% of the total. Exports of services totaled $10.9 billion, of which $4.46 billion came from IT.
Thus, with services accounting for about 30% of the country’s total exports, the IT sector alone accounts for approximately 12% of Ukraine’s total export revenue.
As noted by analysts at Experts Club, these figures demonstrate the special role of IT in Ukraine’s foreign trade. Unlike goods exports, technology services are virtually independent of maritime logistics, border capacity, and the physical transportation of products.
Furthermore, IT remains the largest component of Ukraine’s service exports. Computer services account for about 41% of the service sector’s total export revenue.
From January through August, Ukraine’s service exports reached $10.9 billion, an increase of approximately 6% compared to the same period in 2025. IT exports grew by 4% to $4.46 billion.
Despite this recovery, the IT sector has not yet returned to its 2022 all-time high. IT service exports for the first eight months of 2026 remain approximately 9% below the figure for the corresponding period in 2022.
Thus, Ukrainian IT exports are simultaneously demonstrating a recovery from the decline of previous years and maintaining an exceptionally significant role in generating the country’s foreign exchange revenue.
Data source: National Bank of Ukraine. Calculations of the export structure are based on NBU data published by Opendatabot.
