Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party candidate and son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, finished first in Brazil’s presidential election on October 4, 2026, receiving 47.03% of valid votes. Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured 45.16%. A runoff election will take place on October 25, according to the Experts Club information and analytical center.
Bolsonaro received 56.10 million votes, compared with Lula’s 53.88 million, leaving a gap of approximately 2.22 million votes. Writer Augusto Cury finished third with 2.89%, followed by Renan Santos with 2.24% and Ronaldo Caiado with 2.18%. Approximately 119.3 million valid votes were cast.
The first-round results surprised most polling organizations, which had predicted either a narrow Lula lead or a statistical tie. Meanwhile, more than 33.4 million Brazilians, or 21.1% of registered voters, abstained from voting. This represented the highest first-round presidential election abstention rate since 1998.
Alexander Pozniy, director of the research company Active Group, said the results demonstrated the continuing political strength of Bolsonarism following Jair Bolsonaro’s departure.
“The first round showed that Bolsonarism in Brazil has not only survived Jair Bolsonaro’s departure but has also proved capable of transferring political capital to the next generation. Lula’s problem is that he has already mobilized a significant part of his traditional electorate, while Flávio Bolsonaro now has an opportunity to consolidate the votes of most candidates from the right-wing and center-right camps,” Pozniy said.
Bolsonaro’s position strengthened after Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado and several right-wing parties announced their support. Meanwhile, nearly 9 million votes cast for eliminated candidates remain an important potential source of support in the runoff.
The parliamentary elections provided Bolsonaro with another advantage. The Liberal Party won 121 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and increased its representation in the Senate to 28 seats. Together with its allies, a potential Bolsonaro bloc could control approximately 259 seats in the lower house and 48 in the Senate.
“A gap of two million votes with more than 33 million people not turning out to vote means that the second round cannot be considered a foregone conclusion. But the candidates’ starting positions are not equal. Bolsonaro has already secured the support of several right-wing candidates and parties, while Lula will have to simultaneously mobilize his own base, attract moderate voters and reduce abstention,” Pozniy emphasized.
The geopolitical consequences of the election are also significant. Lula advocates Brazil’s strategic autonomy and maintaining balanced relations with the United States, China and BRICS. Bolsonaro favors closer political cooperation with US President Donald Trump’s administration while preserving economic ties with China.
For Ukraine, a change in Brazil’s administration could potentially lead to adjustments in the country’s diplomatic position on the Russia-Ukraine war. However, an automatic reversal of Brazilian foreign policy should not be assumed.
According to Experts Club, the runoff outcome will depend primarily on mobilizing voters who missed the first round, redistributing votes cast for eliminated candidates, public expectations regarding the economy and the cost of living, and Lula’s ability to overcome the political momentum Bolsonaro gained after October 4.
The second round is scheduled for October 25, 2026.
ElectraWorks Limited (Gibraltar), operating under the bwin sports betting brand, has updated odds for betting on Ukraine’s presidential election after the results of the first round of elections: odds for Volodymyr Zelensky’s victory have increased from 1.8 to 1 to 1.22 to 1. The odds of incumbent President Petro Poroshenko winning have dropped from 2.5 to 1 to 4 to 1.
The betting company Pari-Match is taking bets for Poroshenko’s victory in the second round at 3.1 to 1 odds, also making Zelensky the favorite at 1.35 to 1 odds.
Almost the same odds are given by another betting company 1Xbet: Poroshenko at 3.096 to 1, and Zelensky – 1.336 to 1.
As reported, with 98.3% of voting protocols processed, Zelensky and Poroshenko received 30.24% and 15.93% of votes, respectively.
Batkivschyna Party leader Yulia Tymoshenko received 13.39% of the votes, and Opposition Platform – For Life leader Yuriy Boiko – 11.66%.
BOOKMAKERS, ELECTRAWORKS LIMITED, ODDS, PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, ZELENSKY
The most liquid shares of Ukrainian companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) and the London Stock Exchange (LSE) calmly reacted on the outcome of the first round of the presidential election in Ukraine.
According to the WSE, as of 10:00 am on April 1, the share price of the Ovostar agricultural holding slightly decreased – by 0.93%, to PLN 107 per share. The share price of Agroton agroholding increased 3.66%, to PLN 3.54 per share, Astarta – by 1.84%, to PLN 27.7 per share. Besides, the stock price of IMC increased by 0.72%, to PLN 13.95 per share and Kernel – by 0.2%, to PLN 49.3 per share.
On the LSE, the JKX Oil & Gas oil and gas company shares fell by 2.27%, to GBP 0.5375 per share. Shares of British Ferrexpo Plc, which controls Poltava and Yeristovo mining and processing plants in Ukraine, rose by 3.03%, to GBP 0.255 per share.
The stock price of the agricultural holding MHP increased 0.98%, to $10.35 per share. Share price of the British oil and gas company Regal Petroleum Plc with assets in Ukraine has not changed being GBP 0.435 per share.
Voter turnout at the presidential election in Ukraine as of 15:00 on Sunday was 45.12%, according to data from 197 out of the total of 199 electoral districts, Ukraine’s Central Election Commission (CEC) reported on its website. The data on voter turnout came from 197 electoral districts throughout Ukraine. The total number of electoral districts is 199.
Voter turnout in Vinnytsia region stood at 46.34%, in Volyn region at 48.21%, in Dnipropetrovsk region at 48.74%, in Donetsk region at 44.35%, in Zhytomyr region at 47.13%, in Zakarpattia region at 29.35%, in Zaporizhia region at 49.09%, in Ivano-Frankivsk region at 38.52%, in Kyiv region at 46.81%, in Kirovohrad region at 47.59%, in Luhansk region at 43.49%, in Lviv region at 41.18%, and in Mykolaiv region at 45.8%.
The first round of the presidential election has drawn a voter turnout of 41.84% in Odesa region, 48.84% in Poltava region, 46.74% in Rivne region, 48.1% in Sumy region, 42.49% in Ternopil region, 45.98% in Kharkiv region, 46.94% in Khmelnytsky region, 47.46% in Cherkasy region, 36.16% in Chernivtsi region, 48.69% in Chernihiv region, 43.78% in Kherson region and 46.47% in Kyiv.
Ukraine is holding the first round of its presidential election on Sunday. The polling stations will close at 20:00. A record-large number of candidates – 39 – are running in this presidential election.
ElectraWorks Limited (Gibraltar), operating under the bwin sports betting brand and owned by GVC Holdings PLC in London, has made showman and Servant of the People Party leader Volodymyr Zelensky the odds-on favorite to win the upcoming presidential elections in Ukraine.
According to bwin’s website, incumbent President Petro Poroshenko’s odds have dropped from 2.2 to 1 to 2.05 to 1 over the last five days.
Odds for Batkivschyna Party leader Yulia Tymoshenko to become president have dropped from 4.75 to 5 to 1.
In fourth place, according to bwin, is Civil Position Party leader Anatoliy Hrytsenko, at 21 to 1.
There are no economic prerequisites or political grounds for the resignation of the current Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, and this is unacceptable one year before the presidential election, People’s Front Party leader Arseniy Yatsenyuk has said. “There will be no resignations of the Cabinet of Ministers. There are no economic prerequisites or political grounds for that. The issue of a report by the Cabinet of Ministers is raised exclusively for political motives, as it was raised when there was a political struggle against my Cabinet of Ministers,” Yatsenyuk told reporters on the sidelines of the 11th Kyiv Security Forum on Friday.
The politician noted that the People’s Front faction has no questions to the government as a whole or to its members delegated to the Cabinet of Ministers from this political party. According to him, People’s Front representatives in the government are coping with their duties, and if partners from the Bloc of Petro Poroshenko party consider it necessary to change some ministers, then this is their right, and there is a respective procedure for this.
Yatsenyuk stressed that the resignation of the government was unacceptable one year before the presidential elections. “There must be stability in the country, so that a fair, transparent presidential election is held, so that the course of reforms continues in the country, and so that there are no signs of political destabilization,” he added.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, RESIGNATION, UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT, UNACCEPTABLE
