Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party candidate and son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, finished first in Brazil’s presidential election on October 4, 2026, receiving 47.03% of valid votes. Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured 45.16%. A runoff election will take place on October 25, according to the Experts Club information and analytical center.
Bolsonaro received 56.10 million votes, compared with Lula’s 53.88 million, leaving a gap of approximately 2.22 million votes. Writer Augusto Cury finished third with 2.89%, followed by Renan Santos with 2.24% and Ronaldo Caiado with 2.18%. Approximately 119.3 million valid votes were cast.
The first-round results surprised most polling organizations, which had predicted either a narrow Lula lead or a statistical tie. Meanwhile, more than 33.4 million Brazilians, or 21.1% of registered voters, abstained from voting. This represented the highest first-round presidential election abstention rate since 1998.
Alexander Pozniy, director of the research company Active Group, said the results demonstrated the continuing political strength of Bolsonarism following Jair Bolsonaro’s departure.
“The first round showed that Bolsonarism in Brazil has not only survived Jair Bolsonaro’s departure but has also proved capable of transferring political capital to the next generation. Lula’s problem is that he has already mobilized a significant part of his traditional electorate, while Flávio Bolsonaro now has an opportunity to consolidate the votes of most candidates from the right-wing and center-right camps,” Pozniy said.
Bolsonaro’s position strengthened after Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado and several right-wing parties announced their support. Meanwhile, nearly 9 million votes cast for eliminated candidates remain an important potential source of support in the runoff.
The parliamentary elections provided Bolsonaro with another advantage. The Liberal Party won 121 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and increased its representation in the Senate to 28 seats. Together with its allies, a potential Bolsonaro bloc could control approximately 259 seats in the lower house and 48 in the Senate.
“A gap of two million votes with more than 33 million people not turning out to vote means that the second round cannot be considered a foregone conclusion. But the candidates’ starting positions are not equal. Bolsonaro has already secured the support of several right-wing candidates and parties, while Lula will have to simultaneously mobilize his own base, attract moderate voters and reduce abstention,” Pozniy emphasized.
The geopolitical consequences of the election are also significant. Lula advocates Brazil’s strategic autonomy and maintaining balanced relations with the United States, China and BRICS. Bolsonaro favors closer political cooperation with US President Donald Trump’s administration while preserving economic ties with China.
For Ukraine, a change in Brazil’s administration could potentially lead to adjustments in the country’s diplomatic position on the Russia-Ukraine war. However, an automatic reversal of Brazilian foreign policy should not be assumed.
According to Experts Club, the runoff outcome will depend primarily on mobilizing voters who missed the first round, redistributing votes cast for eliminated candidates, public expectations regarding the economy and the cost of living, and Lula’s ability to overcome the political momentum Bolsonaro gained after October 4.
The second round is scheduled for October 25, 2026.
