Business news from Ukraine

Business news from Ukraine

Experts Club presented video analysis of dynamics of public debt of countries of world over the past 60 years

The information and analytical center Experts Club presented a video analysis of the dynamics of the public debt of the countries of the world over the past six decades, prepared on the basis of a comparative table of public debt volumes in dollar equivalent for 1960–2025.

According to the presented data, the total volume of public debt of the countries included in the study increased from about $381 billion in 1960 to approximately $89.7 trillion in 2025. Thus, over the period covered by the analysis, the nominal volume of debt obligations in the world increased more than 200 times.

Experts Club notes that the video format makes it possible to visually show not only the absolute growth of debt, but also the change in the structure of the global debt burden among the world’s leading economies. If in 1960 the largest volume of public debt fell mainly on the United States and several large economies of Western Europe, then in the 21st century Asian economies and countries with high rates of economic growth also entered the group of the largest debtors.

“Over the past 60 years, public debt has turned from an instrument for financing individual budget needs into one of the key elements of the global economic system. Today, it is not only about the volume of borrowings, but about the ability of states to manage the cost of debt, its maturity structure and its impact on economic growth,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center and Candidate of Economic Sciences.

According to the table, in 2025 the largest volume of public debt among the countries of the world was held by the United States — about $38.27 trillion. Japan was in second place — $9.83 trillion, followed by the United Kingdom — $4.09 trillion, France — $3.92 trillion, Italy — $3.48 trillion, India — $3.36 trillion and Germany — $3.23 trillion.

The top ten countries by absolute volume of public debt in 2025 also included Canada — $2.60 trillion, Brazil — $2.06 trillion and Spain — $1.73 trillion. In total, the ten largest debtors accounted for about 81% of the total debt volume of the countries presented in the table.

The largest share in the global debt mass, according to calculations based on the table, fell on the United States — approximately 42.7%. Japan’s share was about 11%. The five largest countries by absolute debt volume concentrated more than 66% of the total indicator.

The dynamics of recent years indicate a further acceleration of the debt burden in the largest economies. In particular, in 2024–2025, the public debt of the United States increased by approximately $2.91 trillion, Japan’s — by $362 billion, the United Kingdom’s — by $260 billion, France’s — by $250 billion, and India’s — by $230 billion.

At the same time, Experts Club draws attention to the fact that the cited indicators reflect precisely the absolute volumes of debt in U.S. dollars, and not debt relative to GDP, population size or budget revenues. Therefore, the absolute ranking shows the scale of debt obligations, but does not always directly characterize the debt sustainability of one country or another.

“The absolute size of public debt cannot automatically be interpreted as a sign of financial weakness. For large economies, the depth of the domestic financial market, trust in the national currency, the structure of creditors and the ability of the economy to service obligations without losing macro-financial stability are important. That is why the comparison of public debt should combine absolute indicators with an analysis of debt to GDP, budget revenues and the cost of its servicing,” Urakin emphasized.

As for Ukraine, according to the available data, Ukraine’s public debt in 2000 amounted to about $16.3 billion, in 2010 — $51.1 billion, in 2020 — $87.6 billion, in 2024 — $209.8 billion, and in 2025 — about $227.7 billion. By the absolute volume of debt in 2025, Ukraine was approximately in the fourth dozen of countries in the world among those presented in the table.

Experts Club emphasizes that the long-term visualization of debt indicators makes it possible to better assess how the financial architecture of the world has changed after the 1960s, in particular after the oil crises, the period of high inflation, the global financial crisis of 2008, the COVID-19 pandemic and new stages of budgetary stimulus in the leading economies.

The center’s analysts note that the further assessment of debt dynamics should be carried out taking into account not only absolute volumes, but also the ratio of debt to GDP, the cost of debt servicing, the currency structure of obligations, the share of domestic and external borrowings, as well as the ability of the economy to generate long-term revenues for servicing the debt burden.

, ,

US national debt will reach 100% of GDP in current fiscal year

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts a significant increase in the US national debt over the next 30 years. According to CBO’s forecast, the national debt will reach 100% of GDP in the current fiscal year and increase to a record 107% of GDP in fiscal year 2029. By 2025, the figure is expected to reach 156% of GDP.

“Rising public debt will slow economic growth, lead to higher interest payments to foreign debt holders, and pose significant risks to budget and economic projections,” the CBO said in its review.

Earlier this week, international rating agency Moody’s warned that import duties imposed by US President Donald Trump could prevent the country from getting its growing budget deficit under control.

The CBO expects the US budget deficit to increase to 7.3% of GDP by 2055 from 6.4% of GDP in 2024. The forecast for 2025 is 6.2% of GDP.

The CBO forecast assumes a slowdown in US economic growth this year to 2.1% from 2.8% in 2024. Earlier, Experts Club and Maksim Urakin released a video analysis of the state of debt in the world, see more details on the YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/gq7twYrWuqE

 

, , , ,

Ukraine’s public debt increased by $22.7 bln to $166 bln over year

Ukraine’s total public debt in 2024 rose to a new all-time high: by $22.74 billion, or 14.3%, to $166.06 billion in dollar terms, and by UAH 1 trillion 461.3 billion, or 26.5%, to UAH 6 trillion 980.9 billion in hryvnia terms, according to the website of the Ministry of Finance.

According to the data, the direct public debt increased by 16.5% in dollars to $159.20 billion, or UAH 6 trillion 692.4 billion, and accounted for 95.9% of the total public and publicly guaranteed debt.

In 2024, Ukraine’s total external public debt increased by 18.1%, or by $18.38 billion, to $114.88 billion, while the total internal public debt increased by 16.7%, or by UAH 276.0 billion, to UAH 1 trillion 863.1 billion.

As a result, the share of total external public debt increased from 70.0% to 72.3% over the year.

According to the Ministry of Finance, the share of liabilities in euros at the end of 2024 increased to 33.01%, in US dollars to 26.81%, in SDRs to 11.39%, in Canadian dollars to 2.83%, in British pounds to 0.11%, while in hryvnia it decreased to 25.33% and in yen to 0.51%.

The agency also clarified that 65.01% of the state debt has a fixed interest rate, while 11.39% is tied to the IMF rate, 12.66% to SOFR, 3.80% to EURIBOR, 0.51% to TORF and 0.10% to SONIA.

The rate for another 2.08% of government debt is tied to the consumer price index, and 4.17% to the NBU discount rate. These are government bonds from the NBU’s portfolio. The newest of these were the securities linked to the key policy rate, which the NBU bought as part of the issue financing of the 2022 budget.

Finally, 0.27% of the state debt has a rate linked to the Ukrainian index of rates on retail deposits, which is used in portfolio guarantee programs.

The Ministry of Finance previously noted that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to a sharp increase in the ratio of public debt to GDP – from 43.3% at the end of 2021 to 79.4% at the end of 2023.

As reported, Ukraine’s public and publicly guaranteed debt increased by $13.4 billion in 2022 and by $33.9 billion in 2023.

The IMF, as part of the sixth review of the EFF Extended Fund Facility program with Ukraine last December, improved its forecast for public debt growth due to higher GDP growth and lower deficits: to 92.2% of GDP by the end of 2024 and to 104.3% by the end of 2025, while in October it estimated it at 95.6% of GDP and 106.6% of GDP, respectively.

Earlier, the Experts Club think tank and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis on the state of debt in the world, see more details on the YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/gq7twYrWuqE

 

, , , ,

From April to June, France’s public debt increased by 68.9 billion euros

France’s public debt at the end of the second quarter of 2024 rose to 112 percent of GDP, up from 110.5 percent at the end of March.

This was reported by the National Institute for Statistics and Economic Research (Insee).

From April to June, the debt increased by €68.9 billion, reaching €3,228.4 billion.

You can learn more about public debt and the economy in the video on the YouTube channel of the Experts Club think tank: https://youtu.be/gq7twYrWuqE

 

, ,

Global public debt may exceed $100 trln in 2024

Global public debt may exceed $100 trillion (93% of global GDP) in 2024, according to the Fiscal Monitor report published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday.
It is expected to continue to grow in the medium term and may rise to 100% of GDP by 2030.
At the same time, under the most unfavorable scenario, global debt could be almost 20 percentage points higher than the baseline forecast and reach 115% of GDP in 2026.
“Debt stabilization (or reduction) is likely to require much more significant fiscal adjustments than currently planned. Now is the right time to restore fiscal buffers, and delaying them is costly,” the report says.
The IMF believes that public debt will continue to grow in countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Brazil, France, Italy, and South Africa.
“While debt is projected to stabilize or decline in about two-thirds of countries, it will remain well above levels projected before the pandemic,” the report says. Moreover, the countries that are not expected to stabilize account for more than half of the world’s debt and about two-thirds of global GDP.
Government spending to address the problems of the “green transition” in the energy sector, population aging and security issues is likely to increase fiscal pressure in the coming years, according to the Fund’s experts.
“It’s time for governments to get their act together,” said Era Dabla-Norris, IMF Deputy Director for Fiscal Affairs. – “All countries need a strategic turnaround to reduce debt risks.
For more information about public debt and possible country defaults, please watch the video on the YouTube channel of the Experts Club think tank: https://youtu.be/gq7twYrWuqE?si=0WcmU20F95oeVKZp

, ,

Prime Minister of Ukraine thanks external creditors for postponing public debt

Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal has thanked foreign investors for their decision to defer payments on Ukraine’s external debt until 2024.
“Investors in Ukraine’s external debt gave their consent to defer payments until 2024 with a possible extension for another year. Thank you for the step of solidarity. We are also grateful to the G7 countries for supporting this position,” Shmyhal wrote on his Telegram channel on Wednesday.
He said that thanks to this decision, Ukraine will save almost $6 billion on payments over the next two years.
“These funds will help us maintain macro-financial stability, strengthen the stability of the Ukrainian economy and increase the power of our army,” the head of government said.
The prime minister added that the holders of securities of the state-owned Ukrenergo and Ukravtodor also accepted the postponement offer, thanks to which Ukraine could better prepare “for the most difficult heating season in history and more effectively restore infrastructure destroyed by Russian terrorists.”

, , ,