The total public debt of Ukraine in April 2021 increased by 1.29% in U.S. dollars to $91.33 billion and by 0.8% in hryvnias, to UAH 2.534 trillion, according to data on the website of the Ministry of Finance, released on Wednesday.
According to the Ministry of Finance, direct public debt in April this year in U.S. dollars grew by 1.53%, to $81.37 billion, in hryvnias – by 1.04%, to UAH 2.258 trillion.
External direct debt in the past month in U.S. dollars rose by 3.89%, to $45.12 billion (in hryvnias growth was 3.38%, to UAH 1.251 trillion).
The state-guaranteed debt in April in U.S. dollars decreased 0.7% to $9.95 billion, in hryvnias decreased 1.17%, to UAH 276.25 billion, according to the ministry’s data.
According to them, since the beginning of the year, the total national debt of Ukraine has grown by 1.19% in U.S. dollars and by 18.33% in hryvnias.
According to the Ministry of Finance, the share of liabilities in U.S. dollars of the total structure of public debt in April increased to 36.15%, in euros – to 13.68%, in SDR – to 13.54%, while in hryvnias it decreased to 36.02% , while in the yen it remained at the same level – 0.6%.
The official exchange rate, at which the Ministry of Finance calculates the debt, strengthened to UAH 27.75/$1 in April compared to UAH 27.88/$1 in March.
The public and guaranteed debt of Ukraine after growth last year from 50.3% of GDP to 60.8% of GDP in 2021 will decrease to 55.8% of GDP, this updated forecast is contained in the inflation report of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
“Compliance with a balanced fiscal policy in the context of economic growth and low exchange rate volatility will allow to resume the decline in the level of government and government-guaranteed debt, as well as keep it below 60% of GDP,” the NBU said.
According to its estimates, in the first two months of 2021, the debt has already decreased to 58.4% of GDP, amounting to UAH 2.55 trillion in absolute terms (36.5% in national currency and 63.5% in foreign currency).
The National Bank said that in 2021 the government will still maintain a significant budget deficit (according to NBU estimates 4% of GDP, UAH 200.2 billion) to revive the economy and overcome the pandemic.
“However, in the future, in the context of sustainable economic growth, government incentives will decrease, which will gradually improve the debt position. Accordingly, in 2022-2023, the deficit is expected to decrease to 3% of GDP (UAH 165 billion in 2022 and UAH 181.9 billion in 2023),” the bank said in the report.
According to it, the National Bank does not expect financing of NJSC Naftogaz Ukrainy and additional capitalization of state-owned banks in the next three years. The volume of government guarantees, according to its estimates, will decrease from UAH 80 billion in 2021 to UAH 34.4 billion in 2022 and UAH 36.8 billion in 2023.
The total government debt of Ukraine in March 2020 decreased by 3.62% in dollar terms, to $80.38 billion, and in the hryvnia it increased by 10.15% and amounted to UAH 2.255 trillion, the Ministry of Finance has reported. According to the Ministry of Finance, direct public debt in March this year in dollar terms decreased by 3.71%, to $70.87 billion, while in hryvnias it grew by 9.98%, to UAH 1.988 trillion. In particular, external direct debt in March decreased by 0.4%, to $40.34 billion.
State-guaranteed debt last month increased by 11.33%, to UAH 266.7 billion, in dollars decreased by 2.96%, to $9.51 billion. In particular, external debt fell by 11.23%, to UAH 255.83 billion, in dollars it external guaranteed debt decreased by 2.98%, to $9.12 billion.
Since the beginning of the year, the total public debt decreased by almost 4% in dollar terms and increased by 8.4% in hryvnias, according to the ministry.
As reported, the total and state debt of Ukraine in February decreased due to the weakening of the hryvnia by 1.46% in hryvnias and by 0.02% in dollar terms.
