Business news from Ukraine

Business news from Ukraine

Experts Club presented video analysis of dynamics of public debt of countries of world over the past 60 years

The information and analytical center Experts Club presented a video analysis of the dynamics of the public debt of the countries of the world over the past six decades, prepared on the basis of a comparative table of public debt volumes in dollar equivalent for 1960–2025.

According to the presented data, the total volume of public debt of the countries included in the study increased from about $381 billion in 1960 to approximately $89.7 trillion in 2025. Thus, over the period covered by the analysis, the nominal volume of debt obligations in the world increased more than 200 times.

Experts Club notes that the video format makes it possible to visually show not only the absolute growth of debt, but also the change in the structure of the global debt burden among the world’s leading economies. If in 1960 the largest volume of public debt fell mainly on the United States and several large economies of Western Europe, then in the 21st century Asian economies and countries with high rates of economic growth also entered the group of the largest debtors.

“Over the past 60 years, public debt has turned from an instrument for financing individual budget needs into one of the key elements of the global economic system. Today, it is not only about the volume of borrowings, but about the ability of states to manage the cost of debt, its maturity structure and its impact on economic growth,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center and Candidate of Economic Sciences.

According to the table, in 2025 the largest volume of public debt among the countries of the world was held by the United States — about $38.27 trillion. Japan was in second place — $9.83 trillion, followed by the United Kingdom — $4.09 trillion, France — $3.92 trillion, Italy — $3.48 trillion, India — $3.36 trillion and Germany — $3.23 trillion.

The top ten countries by absolute volume of public debt in 2025 also included Canada — $2.60 trillion, Brazil — $2.06 trillion and Spain — $1.73 trillion. In total, the ten largest debtors accounted for about 81% of the total debt volume of the countries presented in the table.

The largest share in the global debt mass, according to calculations based on the table, fell on the United States — approximately 42.7%. Japan’s share was about 11%. The five largest countries by absolute debt volume concentrated more than 66% of the total indicator.

The dynamics of recent years indicate a further acceleration of the debt burden in the largest economies. In particular, in 2024–2025, the public debt of the United States increased by approximately $2.91 trillion, Japan’s — by $362 billion, the United Kingdom’s — by $260 billion, France’s — by $250 billion, and India’s — by $230 billion.

At the same time, Experts Club draws attention to the fact that the cited indicators reflect precisely the absolute volumes of debt in U.S. dollars, and not debt relative to GDP, population size or budget revenues. Therefore, the absolute ranking shows the scale of debt obligations, but does not always directly characterize the debt sustainability of one country or another.

“The absolute size of public debt cannot automatically be interpreted as a sign of financial weakness. For large economies, the depth of the domestic financial market, trust in the national currency, the structure of creditors and the ability of the economy to service obligations without losing macro-financial stability are important. That is why the comparison of public debt should combine absolute indicators with an analysis of debt to GDP, budget revenues and the cost of its servicing,” Urakin emphasized.

As for Ukraine, according to the available data, Ukraine’s public debt in 2000 amounted to about $16.3 billion, in 2010 — $51.1 billion, in 2020 — $87.6 billion, in 2024 — $209.8 billion, and in 2025 — about $227.7 billion. By the absolute volume of debt in 2025, Ukraine was approximately in the fourth dozen of countries in the world among those presented in the table.

Experts Club emphasizes that the long-term visualization of debt indicators makes it possible to better assess how the financial architecture of the world has changed after the 1960s, in particular after the oil crises, the period of high inflation, the global financial crisis of 2008, the COVID-19 pandemic and new stages of budgetary stimulus in the leading economies.

The center’s analysts note that the further assessment of debt dynamics should be carried out taking into account not only absolute volumes, but also the ratio of debt to GDP, the cost of debt servicing, the currency structure of obligations, the share of domestic and external borrowings, as well as the ability of the economy to generate long-term revenues for servicing the debt burden.

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Global demand for steel will stabilize in 2025 and grow in 2026 — forecast

Global demand for steel in 2025 will remain at the previous year’s level — about 1.748 billion tons, after a 1.6% decline in 2024. These figures are given in the short-term forecast of the World Steel Association (Worldsteel) — Short Range Outlook (SRO).

In 2026, according to experts, demand will grow by 1.3% to 1.772 billion tons, driven by recovery in Europe, India, and the rapidly developing countries of Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.

According to Worldsteel’s forecast, in the CIS countries, including Ukraine, demand for steel will decline by 5.2% in 2025, to 56.1 million tons, and by another 1.7% in 2026, to 55.2 million tons.

At the same time, India will retain its status as the world’s fastest-growing steel market, with growth of around 9% annually in 2025-2026. Already next year, steel consumption in India will be almost 75 million tons higher than in 2020.

In developing countries (excluding China), demand for steel will increase by 3.4% in 2025 and by 4.7% in 2026, driven by active economic development in ASEAN countries, as well as in Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

In Africa, steel consumption is growing by an average of 5.5% annually, reaching 41 million tons in 2025 — the highest level in the last decade. Growth is driven by investments in construction and improved macroeconomic indicators.

Andriy Ozeychuk, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Ukrainian Steel Construction Center and Director of Rauta, commented on the market situation and prospects for the Ukrainian steel sector.

“The Ukrainian steel market in 2025–2026 will be shaped by the recovery of domestic demand in construction and machine building, as well as the growth of exports of metal structures to the EU. We predict that demand for steel in Ukraine may grow by 6-8% in 2026 due to infrastructure and industrial recovery projects,” Ozeychuk said.

According to him, the steel construction sector will be the driver of this growth:

“The use of metal structures will accelerate the restoration of logistics, industrial, and infrastructure facilities.”

Ozeychuk also stressed that the launch of joint programs with European partners in the field of “green” metallurgy, where Ukraine already has its first pilot initiatives for the production of steel with a low carbon footprint, could give the industry an additional boost.

According to the forecast, demand for steel in the EU+UK region will increase by 1.3% in 2025 and by 3.2% in 2026. This reflects the impact of increased investment in infrastructure and defense amid lower inflation and improved household incomes.

In the US, Worldsteel expects steel consumption to increase by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026. The main drivers of growth will be government spending on infrastructure, a revival in housing construction, and private investment.

In China, steel demand will continue to decline, by approximately 2% in 2025, due to the prolonged downturn in the real estate market. In 2026, the rate of decline will slow to 1% as the construction sector is expected to bottom out.

Worldsteel warns that a more challenging global trade environment and financial pressure on local authorities could further limit infrastructure investment and reduce demand.

According to Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, chief economist of the Spanish Steel Manufacturers Association (UNESID) and chairman of the Worldsteel Economic Committee, the organization is “cautiously optimistic” about the market outlook:

“Despite trade disputes and uncertainty, we believe that global steel demand will bottom out in 2025 and show moderate growth in 2026,” the expert said.

He added that this will be facilitated by the resilience of the global economy, growth in infrastructure investment, and easing financial conditions. At the same time, the sector continues to be pressured by high costs, trade barriers, and geopolitical risks.

Worldsteel’s forecast emphasizes that the decline in demand in China is offset by strong growth in India and developing countries, where a new center of global steel production is emerging.

In addition, the protective measures introduced by the European Union — reducing duty-free import quotas and increasing customs duties to 50% — may change the balance between EU producers and exporters from Asia and Eastern Europe.

For more information on the largest steel producers and global industry trends, see the Experts Club video analysis review available on YouTube: Experts Club — Leaders of the global steel industry 1990–2024

Source: https://expertsclub.eu/svitovyj-popyt-na-stal-stabilizuyetsya-v-2025-roczi-i-zroste-v-2026-mu-prognoz/

 

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