Business news from Ukraine

The Experts Club analytical center has presented a new short video dedicated to changes in the composition of the world’s 20 largest economies by gross domestic product calculated at purchasing power parity. The analysis shows a gradual shift in the center of the global economy from North America and Western Europe toward Asia, as well as the strengthening of large developing countries with large populations and growing domestic markets.

According to Experts Club calculations based on the International Monetary Fund’s April World Economic Outlook database, China remains the world’s largest economy by GDP at PPP in 2026. Its figure is estimated at $44.3 trillion in international dollars. The United States ranks second with $32.4 trillion, followed by India in third place with $18.9 trillion. Russia ranks fourth at about $7.5 trillion, Japan fifth at $7.3 trillion, and Germany sixth at $6.4 trillion. They are followed by Indonesia, Brazil, France and the United Kingdom. The second ten of the world’s largest economies includes Türkiye, Italy, Mexico, South Korea, Spain, Canada, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Nigeria and Taiwan.

The figures cited are IMF estimates for 2026 rather than final annual results. The full World Economic Outlook database was published in April 2026 and contains statistical data and forecasts through 2031.

China and India became the main winners of the global redistribution

At the beginning of the 1990s, the structure of the global economy looked significantly different. In 1992, the United States ranked first, Japan second and Germany third. China was only in sixth place, India ninth and Indonesia 14th. By 2026, China had risen to first place, India to third and Indonesia to seventh. South Korea moved from 18th place in 1992 to 14th, while Türkiye moved from 15th to 11th.

The growth of Asian countries is associated with population growth, urbanization, expansion of industrial production, infrastructure development and the formation of large domestic consumer markets. China’s rise has been particularly notable. In 1992, its economy at PPP was almost five times smaller than that of the United States, whereas today China’s figure is roughly one-third higher than the U.S. figure. India has also significantly narrowed the gap with the world’s largest economies. Its GDP at PPP in 2026 is almost three times that of Japan or Germany.

Western Europe maintains its positions but loses relative weight

Western European countries remain widely represented among the world’s largest economies, but their relative positions are gradually declining. Germany moved from third place in 1992 to sixth in 2026. Italy fell from fifth to 12th, France from seventh to ninth, and the United Kingdom from eighth to tenth. The Netherlands, which was among the top 20 in the early 1990s, subsequently dropped out. Australia has also periodically ranked among the top 20 but is currently outside it.

This trend does not mean an absolute contraction of European economies. Their GDP continues to grow, but the economies of Asia, the Middle East and individual African countries are expanding faster. GDP at PPP additionally strengthens the positions of developing countries because it takes differences in domestic prices into account. One international dollar is intended to represent a comparable amount of goods and services across different economies, regardless of the market exchange rate of the national currency.

Egypt and Nigeria entered the global top 20

One of the important trends of recent decades has been the strengthening of major African countries. Egypt ranks 18th in the IMF’s 2026 estimate with GDP at PPP of about $2.57 trillion, while Nigeria ranks 19th with $2.42 trillion. Their presence in the top 20 is primarily related to the size of their populations and domestic markets. At the same time, high aggregate GDP does not automatically mean a high standard of living for citizens. To assess living standards, GDP at PPP per capita, labor productivity, the structure of the economy, income distribution and the quality of public services must be considered separately.

Ukraine left the top 20 back in 1994

Following the collapse of the USSR, Ukraine remained among the world’s 20 largest economies by GDP at PPP for some time. According to Experts Club calculations based on the IMF’s historical data series, Ukraine ranked 17th in 1992 with about $433 billion in international dollars. In 1993, it ranked 19th, while in 1994 it fell to 23rd place and finally left the top 20.

In 2000, Ukraine ranked approximately 35th, in 2010 it was 31st, and on the eve of the full-scale war, in 2021, it ranked around 34th. Following the sharp contraction of the economy in 2022, Ukraine fell to 47th place. The World Bank estimated the decline in Ukraine’s real GDP in 2022 at approximately 29%. In subsequent years, the economy partially recovered. According to the IMF estimate, Ukraine ranked approximately 46th in 2025 and may rise to 44th place in 2026. Ukraine’s GDP at PPP in 2026 is estimated at approximately $724.5 billion in international dollars. This is about 0.33% of the global economy. Ukraine is positioned between Chile and Austria, ahead of Peru, the Czech Republic, Iraq and Norway.

“Ukraine’s departure from the top 20 did not occur in recent years, but back in the first half of the 1990s. Since then, the world has changed significantly: China, India, Indonesia, Türkiye and other developing countries expanded their industries, infrastructure and domestic consumption, while Ukraine went through prolonged structural crises, population loss and insufficient investment,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club analytical center.

According to him, the full-scale war further widened the gap between Ukraine and the world’s largest economies due to the destruction of enterprises, energy facilities and transport infrastructure, as well as the reduction in labor resources. As of the end of 2025, direct damage to Ukraine was estimated at more than $195 billion, while recovery and reconstruction needs for the next decade were estimated at nearly $588 billion.

Ukraine’s return to the top 20 will require many years of rapid growth

The world’s 20th-largest economy, Taiwan, has GDP at PPP of about $2.27 trillion. This is more than three times Ukraine’s figure. Therefore, Ukraine cannot return to the top 20 through short-term post-war recovery alone. This will require sustained productivity growth, increased investment, the return of part of the population, development of the manufacturing industry and expansion of exports of high value-added products.

“The main conclusion from the ranking lies not in the country’s position itself, but in the speed of its movement relative to other countries. Even growth of several percent per year may be insufficient if competitors are growing faster. Ukraine needs a model of accelerated development designed for at least two decades,” Urakin emphasized.

Experts Club notes that GDP at PPP rankings make it possible to assess the scale of national economies and their role in global production, but they should not be used as the sole indicator of economic success. The United States, for example, trails China in aggregate GDP at PPP but significantly outpaces it in GDP per capita, financial market development and the value of high-tech companies.

The main global trend remains the gradual shift of economic weight toward Asia and the countries of the Global South. In the coming decades, this process will be supported by demographic growth, urbanization and the expansion of the middle class in India, Indonesia, Africa and other developing regions.