Ukrainian corn is sold cheaper than American and Argentine corn by $20/ton on world markets, which is an abnormal distortion and leads to the restraint of sales by Ukrainian farmers, according to the analytical cooperative “Start”, created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (AAC).
“Ukraine actively trades corn, significant volumes have already been contracted in January-February. Market operators fear that the supply of corn from Argentina will increase on the world market and the conditions for the sale of Ukrainian grain will deteriorate,” analysts said, adding that prices on CIF terms have fallen sharply, as the supply of Ukrainian corn is high and the demand for it is low.
According to the experts, Ukrainian corn is traded conditionally at $200-210/ton on the European markets, while corn originating from the USA is traded at $220/ton.
“The gap of $20/ton is abnormally large. Ukrainian corn is too cheap on the world markets compared to its American and Argentine counterparts, and there are no objective reasons for such an imbalance,” the UAC believes.
At the same time, the CPT market is not yet active in terms of trade, many farmers are holding back corn and do not want to sell it at low prices. In Odesa ports, CPT prices are in the range of $147-155/ton, and in small ports on the Danube – $150-155/ton.
Large market players have paused in corn trading, while small and medium-sized traders are active on the market. As prices on CPT terms are so low that they make corn trading unprofitable for the average farmer, many farmers are ready to postpone corn sales until summer or even postpone them to the next season. And although Ukraine has significant corn stocks – about 17 million tons – the amount available for sale is an open question, the UAC summarized.
