The British people will go to the polls on Thursday to determine the new composition of the Parliament. Polling stations will be open from 07:00 to 22:00 local time (09:00 to 00:00 CET). The British parliament is elected for five years and one party needs to win 326 seats out of 650 for a majority.
The first preliminary results are expected around 23:30 (01:30 CET), and updated data is expected to be published between 03:00 and 05:00 (05:00 and 07:00 CET). Western media note that it is usually after the publication of such updated information on the voting results that the leader of the losing party concedes defeat.
On Friday morning, the leader of the winning party is expected to travel to Buckingham Palace to inform King Charles III that he is ready to form a government.
The pre-election polls were extremely unfavorable for the Conservatives: according to several media outlets that compiled polls from various opinion companies, Labor could get about 40% of the vote, the Conservatives about 20%, and the Reform the UK party about 16%.
At the same time, experts from Survation said that they can say with 99% confidence that Labor will win with a huge margin. According to their latest poll, given the current rules for distributing votes in the election, the Labor Party could win 484 seats out of 650 (about 75% of the seats). In this scenario, the Conservative Party would receive only 64 seats (about 10%), which could be the worst result in their history.
Thus, the Reform the UK party, headed by Nigel Farage, may, under a favorable set of circumstances, overtake the Conservatives in the elections and become the second most important political party in the country. Farage’s party is mainly focused on immigration and the continuation of Brexit.
At the same time, changes are expected from Scotland and Northern Ireland. The Scottish National Party (SNP), which is experiencing an internal crisis, may lose some seats in the British Parliament to Labor. At the same time, the left-wing nationalist party Sinn Fein may win the majority of seats in the parliament for the first time in history from Northern Ireland. The party adheres to the policy of abstentionism, which means that if it wins, it will not de facto take its seats.
Pre-election polls in Wales do not predict any radical changes.
According to British voters, the most important problems in the kingdom are currently the economic situation (about 52% said so), the healthcare situation (50%), and immigration and asylum issues (40%). At the same time, the British media note that in their election promises, both Labor and the Conservatives do not pay enough attention to the country’s main problems.
Labor leader Keir Starmer promises to reform several sectors, including the National Health Service, and to raise taxes to invest in these areas. The leader of the Conservatives, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, promises to cut taxes.
At the same time, the positions of the two parties on Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine do not differ much: Sunak promised to stand by Ukraine “no matter what it takes,” while Starmer repeatedly said that his support for Kyiv is “ironclad.” The Labor Party’s manifesto states that it is ready to work with the Ukrainian government to diplomatically isolate Russia and increase industrial production. Labor is also ready to work to create a path to Ukraine’s membership in NATO.
At the same time, Farage said that Russia and Ukraine should try to organize a negotiation process by using mediators. He criticized NATO’s eastward expansion and said that Ukraine, in his opinion, should act as a buffer state between Russia and the West in the future.
Political problems for the Conservative Party began at the end of 2021, when Boris Johnson, who was then Prime Minister, resigned due to his participation in parties during the COVID-19 lockdown and the scandals that followed. Liz Truss took over as prime minister in September 2022 and was replaced by Sunak in October. The Conservative Party has been in power in the UK for about 14 years.
In late May, Sunak announced his intention to hold general elections on July 4, a decision that came as a surprise to many. The previous parliament convened in December 2019, so the prime minister had until December to decide.
Earlier, Experts Club presented an analytical material on the most important elections in the world in 2024, a more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/73DB0GbJy4M?si=eGb95W02MgF6KzXU
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