Global cereal production in 2024 will decline by about 0.6% from the previous year to 2,841 million tons, a downward revision since October, but still the second largest production on record, according to the monthly review of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
According to the report, world wheat production in 2024 will be at the level of 2023 and will amount to 789 million tons, while corn production will decline by 1.9% from the previous year to 1,271 million tons due to lower than expected yields in the European Union and the United States.
FAO’s forecast for global rice production in 2024-2025 increased by 0.8% to a record high of 538.8 million tons.
Softer wheat prices in 2025 may prevent the expansion of the area under winter wheat during the sowing campaign, which is being conducted in the Northern hemisphere. Below-normal precipitation in key wheat-growing regions in Russia resulted in low soil moisture levels, which affected planting. In contrast, favorable soil moisture and government support policies, as well as favorable prices, should encourage planting expansion in China and India.
Early signs point to a reduction in corn plantings in Argentina due to dry conditions and the risk of dwarfing disease transmitted by cicadas. In Brazil, the area under corn in 2025 will remain at last year’s level. In South Africa, white corn acreage is expected to increase. This is due to record prices and will compensate for the reduction in the area under yellow corn.
Global grain consumption is projected to increase by 0.6% to 2,859 million tons in the 2024/25 marketing year (MY, July-2024-June-2025), driven by projected growth in rice and wheat consumption as food.
According to FAO’s November forecast, global grain stocks will decrease by 0.7% from their initial level, resulting in a global grain stocks-to-consumption ratio of 30.1% in 2024/25 MY, which is lower than 30.8% in the previous year, but still indicates a “comfortable supply level” on a global scale.
International grain trade for 2024/25 MY is forecast at 484 mln tonnes, which is 4.6% less than in the previous year.
“Global wheat and corn trade volumes are expected to decline, while rice trade is expected to increase,” the report says.
