Passenger traffic across Ukraine’s border increased by 3.7% year-on-year to 452,000 passengers in the first week of winter (November 30-December 6) as the Christmas holidays approached.
According to the State Border Guard Service’s Facebook page, the number of outbound crossings increased from 222,000 to 229,000, while the number of inbound crossings increased from 214,000 to 223,000.
As for their distribution by day of the week, according to the border guards, traditionally, the maximum flow of exit traffic was on Friday-Sunday, while the maximum flow of entry traffic was on Saturday-Monday.
The number of vehicles crossing the checkpoints increased from 118,000 to 122,000 over the week, while the flow of vehicles carrying humanitarian aid slightly decreased from 577 to 565.
The State Border Guard Service indicates that as of 12:00 Sunday, a small queue was observed at only one checkpoint: “Ustyluh” on the border with Poland – 10 cars, while at all other checkpoints there were no queues.
The total number of people crossing the border in the first week of winter this year is higher than last year’s: 206 thousand people left Ukraine and 209 thousand entered during the same seven days, with a traffic flow of 108 thousand cars.
As reported, on May 10, 2022, the outflow of refugees from Ukraine, which began with the outbreak of war, was replaced by an influx that lasted until September 23, 2022 and amounted to 409 thousand people. However, since the end of September, possibly under the influence of news about mobilization in Russia and “pseudo-referendums” in the occupied territories, and then massive shelling of energy infrastructure, the number of people leaving has been exceeding the number of people entering. It temporarily stopped in the second half of December and early January during the holidays, but then resumed again and reached a total of 223 thousand people from the end of September 2022 to the first anniversary of the full-scale war.
During the second year of the full-scale war, the number of border crossings to leave Ukraine, according to the State Border Guard Service, exceeded the number of crossings to enter by 25 thousand, while since the beginning of the third year, the number of crossings to enter has increased by another 184 thousand.
As Deputy Economy Minister Serhiy Sobolev noted in early March last year, the return of every 100,000 Ukrainians home results in a 0.5% increase in GDP. In its macroeconomic forecast for this year, the Ministry of Economy has included 1.5 million people returning to Ukraine.
At the same time, the National Bank, in its October inflation report, again downgraded its forecast for the outflow from Ukraine this year from 0.4 million to 0.5 million. In absolute terms, the number of migrants staying abroad this year is expected to increase to 6.8 million.
According to updated UNHCR data, the number of Ukrainian refugees in Europe was estimated at 6.226 million as of November 18, and 6.786 million worldwide, which is 34 thousand more than as of October 15.
In Ukraine itself, according to the latest UN data as of August this year, there were 3.669 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), which is 121 thousand more than in April this year.
According to regional authorities cited by the UN, more than 128,000 people have left Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine since August 1, including 24,000 who fled active hostilities, while approximately 330,000 remain in the region, including approximately 63,000 in active combat zones.
In Sumy region, the authorities estimate that 36,000 people, including 6,000 children, were evacuated between August 1 and October 3.
