The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has strengthened the official hryvnia exchange rate against the U.S. dollar by 17 kopecks on Friday, after the official hryvnia exchange rate was raised by another 7 kopecks at the end of trading on Monday – to 41.5554 UAH/$1, according to the data on the regulator’s website.
The NBU set the reference rate at 41.5959 UAH/$1 at 12:00 p.m. Monday against 41.6644 UAH/$1 on Friday.
“The dollar exchange rate may fluctuate in the range of 41.8-42.5 UAH/$1. The NBU continues to actively restrain sharp fluctuations, as evidenced by the sale of currency from reserves, and large inflationary risks are not expected in the coming month,” analysts at currency exchange market operator KYT Group shared their expectations for the coming weeks in a February review.
However, among the current risks they name further growth of dollar rate in case of change of policy of the Federal Reserve System (FRS), or sharp fluctuations on external markets, as well as the probability of short-term “jumps” of the rate, as a response to any news about the delay of international aid.
Analysts expect a gradual weakening of the hryvnia to 44 UAH/$1 during the first half of the year, which may be due to increased import purchases in the spring, worsening inflation expectations, and as a consequence, an accelerated weakening of the national currency.
Among other factors of such a forecast is a greater demand for currency in Ukraine due to the expected transition of the Federal Reserve System to a softer interest rate policy. Additional risks, according to KYT Group experts, may be the deterioration of the economic situation, or a shortage of financial aid.
“If the current macroeconomic picture persists, the dollar exchange rate may reach UAH 45/$1 before the end of the year, although this scenario depends entirely on the success of the government’s economic policy and the stability and sufficiency of the inflow of external financing,” the analysts summarized.
As reported, the Cabinet of Ministers has set the annual average of the official exchange rate of the hryvnia to the U.S. dollar in the state budget of 2025 at the level of 45 UAH/$1.
In the 2024 budget, the government budgeted an annual average of 40.7 UAH/$1, and at the end of the year – 42.1 UAH/$1. The hryvnia weakened by 10.6%, or by UAH 4.02 to UAH 42.0390/$1 at the official exchange rate last year.
Ukraine’s international reserves as of February 1, 2025, according to preliminary data, amounted to $43 billion 3.1 million, in January they decreased by 1.8%, or $785 million, and net international reserves (NIR) – by $0.79 billion, or 2.7% – to $28.313 billion.
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1047722.html
