In March, Ukraine exported 1.1 million tons of wheat, which is one of the highest monthly figures of the current season, in April, the volume of supplies may be slightly lower, but still remain at a high level, according to the analytical cooperative “Start”, created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council.
“For April, 850 thousand tons of wheat have already been contracted, and the total monthly exports may reach 1 million tons. Despite the general stagnation of demand in the European market, Ukrainian grain is finding its buyers, particularly in Egypt,” analysts said.
However, according to experts, the situation is less optimistic from the price point of view. The main export destinations for Ukrainian wheat – Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands – remain passive in terms of new purchases, and the reintroduction of duties on Ukrainian grain to the EU in June may further complicate access to the European market.
“There is no positive news for the wheat price so far. The stock market has been sinking in recent weeks, and we see a serious gap between the physical market and stock exchange quotes. While the FOB price in Ukraine is currently $60 per ton higher than in Chicago, by June-July the markets usually synchronize. This means that the Ukrainian physical price may sink, especially as the new harvest approaches,” Pusk commented.
According to analysts, the conditional average price for wheat of the 2nd class of the new harvest for July is forecasted at $190-200 per ton on a CPT-port basis, while currently this figure is fixed at $210-215. The potential decline could be up to $20 per ton.
“If you have the opportunity, you should not rush to sell. Historically, in July-August, the market is saturated with wheat from all major exporting countries – Ukraine, Russia, Romania, and the US – and even with a deficit balance, the price usually falls. At the same time, the seasonal model shows that from October to December, the price may rise to $220-235 per ton on a CPT-port basis. Therefore, if the financial cushion allows, it is worth considering postponing sales,” the analysts added.
They stated that flour mills are currently offering the best prices on the domestic market – 10500-11000 UAH/ton for 2-3 grade wheat.
“Given the sluggish export demand, this may be a more profitable solution for farmers,” Pusk believes.
