The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has increased its forecast for Ukraine’s wheat exports by 0.5 million tons to 16.0 million tons, leaving corn exports unchanged at 22.0 million tons and wheat and corn production at 23.4 million tons and 26.8 million tons, respectively.
According to the April forecast, the global wheat market in the 2024-2025 marketing year is expected to decrease slightly in production, consumption, and trade volume compared to the previous month’s forecast, while ending stocks are expected to increase.
World wheat production is expected to decline by 0.3 million tons to 796.9 million tons due to lower production estimates in Saudi Arabia and the EU (-0.3 million tons to 121.0 million tons).
World wheat consumption is projected 1.4 million tons lower to 805.2 million tons, mainly due to lower food, seed, and industrial use in India and China.
World trade in MY 2024/2025 is projected 1.3 million tons lower to 206.8 million tons, mainly due to lower export forecasts for Russia (-1.0 million tons to 44.0 million tons), Australia (-0.5 million tons to 25.5 million tons), and the EU (-0.5 million tons to 26.5 million tons), only partially offset by higher exports for Canada (+0.5 million tons to 26.5 million tons) and Ukraine (+0.5 million tons to 16.0 million tons).
Exports in MY 2024/2025 are expected to be 7% lower than in the previous year.
Projected world ending stocks for MY 2024/2025 are increased by 0.6 million tons to 260.7 million tons, as increases in stocks in India, the Russian Federation, the US and the EU are partially offset by lower stocks in China. World stocks for MY 2024/2025 are now 3% below the previous year and the lowest since MY 2015/2016.
The updated forecasts for the global corn market in MY 2024/2025 assume higher production, consumption, trade volumes and a corresponding reduction in ending stocks.
The forecast for world corn production increased by 0.9 million tons to 1,215.1 million tons. Increases in the EU (+1.3 million tons to 59.3 million tons due to increased harvests in Poland, Croatia, France and Germany, partially offset by decreases in Romania and Bulgaria), Tanzania and Honduras were partially offset by decreases in Moldova, Cambodia and Kenya.
The world export forecast rises by 2.3 million tons to 188.7 million tons. Major changes in world trade for MY 2024/2025 include an increase in projected corn exports for the United States (+2.5 million tons to 64.8 million tons) and a decrease for Pakistan.
Corn ending stocks declined by 1.3 million tons to 287.7 million tons, reflecting lower stocks in the U.S. and higher stocks in South Korea, Pakistan.
