The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) forecasts that in 2025, the loan portfolio of banks will grow by 20–25%, which will allow balancing investments in government bonds, said First Deputy Governor of the NBU Kateryna Rozhkova.
“We expect that in 2025, the loan portfolio will grow at a rate of around 20-25%, which will balance investments in government bonds,” she said during the presentation of the financial stability report on Tuesday.
She noted that the share of the loan portfolio in the structure of bank balance sheets is growing, and the regulator hopes that this trend will continue.
“Based on an analysis of the real sector and corporate balance sheets, we see that in terms of business credit metrics, such as solvency, debt-to-revenue ratio, and debt service-to-income ratio, the vast majority of companies are in good shape,” Rozhkova said.
This indicates that businesses have managed to adapt and recover, thanks in part to support from government programs. As a result, most companies now look attractive to banks as potential borrowers, explained the first deputy head of the NBU.
At the same time, she noted that consumer demand is insufficient for rapid economic growth, and that the willingness of businesses to invest in production currently plays a key role. The state is also a significant source of effective demand, particularly through its defense needs, which fuel the economy and lending.
“Currently, all the conditions that exist in the market today and the banking sector, which can provide credit support, want to do so and have the resources to do so. According to a bank survey, demand for loans from businesses is at around 30% growth,” Rozhkova emphasized.
She noted that the regulator is observing an increase in the share of loans with maturities of one to three years in the loan portfolio of banks, which indicates an increase in the volume of longer-term financing, which is often of an investment nature, particularly with regard to new loans.
As reported, members of the NBU’s Monetary Policy Committee noted that interest rates on business loans have risen but remain at pre-crisis levels, and banks’ loan portfolios continue to grow steadily.
According to the NBU, in May, the volume of loans increased by 1.8%, or by UAH 21 billion, to UAH 1 trillion 186.3 billion, while deposits decreased by 0.4%, or by UAH 10.3 billion, to UAH 2 trillion 804.8 billion.
