Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 1.1% in May 2025 compared to the same month in 2024, according to the Monthly Economic Monitor of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER).
“The State Statistics Service has begun to publish data on industry more quickly, which allows us to assess the state of the Ukrainian economy more accurately. The new data show that growth rates remain low, although certain positive signals are already emerging,” according to the results of the study published on the IER website on Thursday.
According to the IER, real gross value added (GVA) growth in the manufacturing industry accelerated to 2.4% in May compared to 2024, up from 1.4% in April after a decline in March. This indicator was supported by more stable domestic demand.
In addition, companies faced fewer problems with access to electricity in May. According to the IER’s estimates, real GVA in electricity grew by 3% year-on-year in April and 4.8% in May. The decline in the extractive industry slowed to 10.4% (compared to 2024) in May due to a slight recovery in gas production and an increase in the extraction of construction raw materials.
According to the State Statistics Service, retail trade turnover grew by 4.8% in the first quarter. Data on wholesale trade has not yet been released, but the IER assumes that it continued to decline slightly due to the ongoing transition to direct sales and reduced use of warehouses due to shelling by the Russian army. Therefore, real GDP growth in trade in April and May is estimated at 2% year-on-year, although wages continue to rise rapidly.
Real GVA in agriculture declined by 2.4% year-on-year in May, which is close to April’s figures. This reflects a decline in livestock production by households, which was not offset by a slight increase in production by enterprises.
The IER estimates that real GVA in transport declined by 6.4% in May compared to the previous year. The slowdown in rail freight transport continued, and the impact of the suspension of gas transit persisted, although growth was observed in other transport sub-sectors.
In the first five months of 2025, Ukrzaliznytsia transported 22.2 million tons of cargo to ports. In particular, 12.7 million tons of grain were transported, of which 11.4 million tons were for export (to ports and the western border). This figure is 30% lower than in January-May 2024.
“The decline in rail transport reflects a seasonal trend in lower grain sales in anticipation of the new harvest,” the IER explains.
In addition, electricity imports rose by 3.6% in May compared to April, to 198,000 MWh. Most of the electricity was supplied from Hungary (40%). Electricity exports in May fell by 41% compared to April, to 93,000 MWh.
As for gas, the IER warns of the threat of a shortage if not all production capacities are restored after the Russian shelling. Currently, the shortage is estimated at approximately EUR 1 billion. As of mid-May, 6.14 billion cubic meters of gas had been accumulated in underground storage facilities (UGS).
As noted, the May level of UGS filling was the lowest in the last 11 years. Last month, 11.7 TWh, or more than 1.1 billion cubic meters, of gas was sent to UGS, which is 49% more than in May last year. Of this, about 500 million cubic meters came from abroad, while a year ago such inflows were close to zero.
“This indicates that the injection of Ukrainian-produced gas into storage facilities in May was not much lower than last year’s figure. The average daily injection rate in May was 376 GWh, or approximately 36 million cubic meters, and in the first 16 days of June, it rose to 463 GWh, or 45 million cubic meters,” the IER said.
