Experts predict coffee prices to rise by up to 40% in 2025. The main reasons cited are drought in Brazil and abnormal rains in Vietnam, the largest coffee-producing countries, according to the FAO and the International Coffee Organization.
In 2024, the price of Arabica rose by 69%, reaching record levels and exceeding $4.30 per pound on the ICE exchange in early 2025. Drought in Brazil led to a 10-11% drop in harvest, causing a shortage, while in Vietnam, the harvest fell by 10-20% due to droughts and heavy rains. The International Coffee Organization warns that market stabilization should not be expected until 2026-2028.
Retail coffee prices are expected to rise by 10-20%, leading to higher prices in cafes and retail packaging. This will increase inflationary pressure, as rising coffee prices complement rising food prices. Experts note that producers will have to invest in drought-resistant varieties and new irrigation systems. There is also an increase in costs in the supply chain, including higher prices for fertilizers, logistics, and credit resources.
According to the FAO, global coffee production in 2023 amounted to about 11 million tons, of which Brazil accounted for 31%, Vietnam for 18%, and Indonesia for about 7%. Global coffee consumption is growing by about 2% annually and is estimated at 177 million bags per year.
According to open data, the leaders in per capita coffee consumption are Finland (about 12-13 kg per year), Norway (about 10 kg), Iceland (9.8 kg), Denmark (8.7 kg), the Netherlands (8.4 kg), Sweden (8.2 kg), Switzerland (7.9 kg), Belgium (6.8 kg), Luxembourg (6.5 kg), and Canada (6.5 kg).
Rising coffee prices in 2025 could pose a serious challenge for both producers and consumers, and will increase interest in sustainable production and expansion of supply in order to stabilize the market in the face of a changing climate.
