Experts predict coffee prices to rise by up to 40% in 2025. The main reasons cited are drought in Brazil and abnormal rains in Vietnam, the largest coffee-producing countries, according to the FAO and the International Coffee Organization.
In 2024, the price of Arabica rose by 69%, reaching record levels and exceeding $4.30 per pound on the ICE exchange in early 2025. Drought in Brazil led to a 10-11% drop in harvest, causing a shortage, while in Vietnam, the harvest fell by 10-20% due to droughts and heavy rains. The International Coffee Organization warns that market stabilization should not be expected until 2026-2028.
Retail coffee prices are expected to rise by 10-20%, leading to higher prices in cafes and retail packaging. This will increase inflationary pressure, as rising coffee prices complement rising food prices. Experts note that producers will have to invest in drought-resistant varieties and new irrigation systems. There is also an increase in costs in the supply chain, including higher prices for fertilizers, logistics, and credit resources.
According to the FAO, global coffee production in 2023 amounted to about 11 million tons, of which Brazil accounted for 31%, Vietnam for 18%, and Indonesia for about 7%. Global coffee consumption is growing by about 2% annually and is estimated at 177 million bags per year.
According to open data, the leaders in per capita coffee consumption are Finland (about 12-13 kg per year), Norway (about 10 kg), Iceland (9.8 kg), Denmark (8.7 kg), the Netherlands (8.4 kg), Sweden (8.2 kg), Switzerland (7.9 kg), Belgium (6.8 kg), Luxembourg (6.5 kg), and Canada (6.5 kg).
Rising coffee prices in 2025 could pose a serious challenge for both producers and consumers, and will increase interest in sustainable production and expansion of supply in order to stabilize the market in the face of a changing climate.
The Greek residential real estate market 2025 continues to show steady growth despite global economic challenges. Demand for housing remains high among both local residents and foreign investors, which contributes to higher prices and the development of new projects.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released the April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which provides updated forecasts for wheat and corn production, consumption, trade, and stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year.
Corn: world market
– Production: the forecast is increased by 0.9 million tons to 1 215.1 million tons. Increased production in the EU (+1.3 mln tonnes to 59.3 mln tonnes) due to higher harvests in Poland, Croatia, France and Germany, partially offset by lower production in Romania and Bulgaria.
– Trade: Exports are revised upward by 2.3 million tons to 188.7 million tons, mainly due to higher exports from the United States (+2.5 million tons to 64.8 million tons).
– Stocks: World ending stocks are lowered by 1.3 million tons to 287.7 million tons, reflecting a decrease in US stocks and an increase in stocks in South Korea and Pakistan.
According to the decree of President Donald Trump, the United States imposes additional duties on goods from a number of countries. The size of the tariffs varies depending on trade relations with Washington. The biggest restrictions are imposed on Cambodia, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka.
Countries with the highest duties
Cambodia – 49%
Vietnam – 46%; and
Sri Lanka – 44%
Thailand – 36%
China – 34% of the total
Bangladesh – 34%
Taiwan – 32%
Indonesia – 32%
Switzerland – 31%
South Africa – 30%
Pakistan – 29% – 29
Japan – 24% – 24
Malaysia – 24%
South Korea – 25%
European Union – 20%
Israel – 17%
Philippines – 17%
United Kingdom – 10%
Brazil – 10%
Singapore – 10%
Chile – 10% (basic rate)
Ukraine – 10% (basic tariff without additional restrictions)
The duties will come into force on April 9, 2025. In addition, the 10% basic tariff will be applied to all goods, which increases the overall rate for countries with already established duties. For example, Chinese goods will be subject to 44% (34% + 10%), and goods from the EU – 30% (20% + 10%).
Canada and Mexico are not yet subject to reciprocal tariffs.
Reasons for the introduction of duties
President Trump called these measures “mirror sanctions”, emphasizing that they are intended to compensate for unfair trade practices of other countries. According to him, the United States cannot afford to be an “economic target” and must protect its producers.
According to Bloomberg, the measures will affect the $33 trillion global market. Countries from China to Brazil are under attack, and the volume of their exports to the United States may decrease by 4% to 90%. Average tariffs may increase by 15%, which will trigger inflation in the US and increase the risk of recession.
In addition, the Trump administration continues to tighten trade measures previously introduced since 2017. In particular:
An additional 20% tax on all imports from China has been introduced.
A global 25% tariff on steel and aluminum is in effect.
A 25% duty on imports of automobiles and spare parts (effective April 3, 2025).
Expected consequences
Experts predict that under the maximum scenario, average tariffs in the US will increase to 2%, which could lead to a 4% reduction in GDP and a 2.5% increase in prices in the next two to three years.
China, the EU, and India will suffer the greatest losses, although their economies are likely to withstand the blow. Southeast Asian countries, Canada, and Mexico will experience a significant negative impact on their trade with the United States.
Insurers predict that healthcare costs will grow by 10.4% in 2025, according to a survey conducted by WTW Global Medical Trends Survey, according to the website of the global insurance broker WTW.
It is noted that the projected growth in healthcare costs depends on the region.
Thus, in North America, costs are projected to increase from 8.1% in 2024 to 8.7% in 2025, while in the United States, insurers predict an increase of 10.2% in 2025 against 9.3% this year. Expenditures are also projected to accelerate in Asia Pacific, the Middle East and Africa, while Europe and Latin America are expected to see slower growth.
While this trend may cool somewhat in some regions, it is projected to remain strong in the long term. In fact, over the next three years, 64% of insurers expect medical trends to increase or increase significantly globally. Demand for healthcare is also not expected to decline in the near future. Two-thirds (67%) of insurers expect higher or significantly higher global demand for healthcare services over the next three years.
Among the main factors contributing to the continuing high costs of health care are, in particular, the growth of new medical technologies and pharmaceuticals, more frequent use of private clinics due to the overload of the public health care system around the world due to high demand and limited resources. In addition, the last few years have seen a surge in the use of healthcare services (with a growing trend towards mental health services), which continues to increase the overall cost of treatment.
Between June and August 2024, WTW conducted a study of global healthcare trends in 2025. The survey involved 348 leading health insurance companies from 75 countries. In addition to reports from insurers, information was received from local WTW brokers representing 55 countries. The aggregate data covers 90 countries.
In its August report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) slightly lowered its forecast for the corn crop in Ukraine. The decrease compared to July is 1.8%, namely to 27.2 million tons (-0.5 million tons), exports – 24 million tons (-0.5 million tons), ending stocks increased to 0.73 million tons (+0.5 million tons).
World corn production is reduced to 1.219 billion tons (-0.005 billion tons), exports – to 191.47 million tons (-0.34 million tons), carry-over stocks – 310.17 million tons (-1.47 million tons).
Analysts have lowered their estimates of global corn production due to extreme heat and drought in southeastern Europe and the Southern and North Caucasus regions of Russia in July, which affected crop yields. Corn production in Ukraine was reduced, as the expansion of corn production areas was offset by lower yield expectations.
