Sunflower oil exports from Ukraine in the 2025/2026 marketing year (MY) are projected at 4.1 million tons. This is 14% less than the previous season’s figure, the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UAC) reported on Facebook.
According to analysts, the main reason for the decline was a reduction in raw material volumes. Specifically, in the current season, the total area planted with sunflowers was 5.2 million hectares, which is 2.6% less than in the previous MY. Difficult weather conditions, particularly a lack of rainfall, led to a decrease in yield to 2.0 t/ha.
“As a result, the seed harvest is expected to reach 10.1 million tons. This is 10.6% less than in the previous marketing year and 13.5% below the average for the last five years,” experts predict.
Due to the smaller harvest, UCAB estimates processing volumes at 10.1 million tons, meaning oil production will drop by 13.1% to 4.3 million tons. Meanwhile, the domestic market will consume only about 240,000 tons of the product.
“Domestic consumption in Ukraine continues to decline due to the partial occupation of territories, forced population migration, and military operations. Therefore, the vast majority of the product will be exported,” explained UCAB, noting that in 2025, sunflower oil alone generated the highest foreign exchange revenue among the entire agricultural sector.
The association expressed confidence that despite the negative production trends, Ukrainian sunflower oil retains its position as a key export commodity in the EU, Middle East, and Asian markets.
Barley exports from Ukraine in the 2025/2026 marketing year (MY, July-June) are forecast at 2.8 million tons, which is 22% higher than the previous season, according to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UACB) on Facebook.
The association’s analysts noted that barley production has remained relatively stable during the years of war, although it has declined significantly compared to the pre-war period. In 2025/26 MY, Ukraine harvested 5.3 million tons of this crop, which is 0.4% more than in the previous marketing year, but 19.7% less than the average for the last five years.
Among the key trends of the season, experts highlighted the largest reduction in barley acreage among all grains due to the temporary occupation of territories and low export potential. The area under cultivation was 1.4 million hectares, which is 0.9% less than in the previous marketing year and 26.4% below the five-year average. At the same time, barley was the only grain crop to show an increase in yield to 3.9 tons/ha, which was 8.4% higher than the average for the last five years.
Experts emphasized that increased production and high carryover stocks allowed for increased shipments to foreign markets after a decline in the 2024/2025 season. At the same time, Ukraine continues to experience a prolonged decline in domestic barley consumption, which is estimated at 2.8 million tons in the current marketing year. Of this volume, 1.9 million tons are used for feed, and 0.2 million tons are used for food.
“Despite the largest reduction in acreage among all grains, barley managed to maintain production volumes thanks to increased yields. The decline in domestic consumption and the availability of carryover stocks will allow Ukraine to increase exports in the 2025/2026 marketing year, meeting the demand of countries in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East,” the UACB concluded.
Purchase prices for live pigs in Ukraine in the period from March 2 to March 8, 2026, are forecast to be 70–71 UAH/kg, according to the analytical department of the Meat Industry Association.
The industry association noted that pork prices in Europe have fallen to their lowest level since 2022. This factor, combined with the unpredictable situation regarding African swine fever (ASF), will begin to affect the Ukrainian market in March this year.
“Given the interconnectedness of markets, European price dynamics will remain an important benchmark for the domestic sector,” analysts emphasized.
According to the association, on the German VEZG exchange, the price of half-carcasses of standard pigs for the next week is set at EUR 1.55/kg (79.27 UAH/kg), and sows — EUR 0.78/kg (39.89 UAH/kg) excluding VAT. On the Polish exchange CennikRolnicze, the average price for live pigs is PLN 4.86/kg (UAH 58.9/kg) with a range of PLN 4.00-5.70/kg.
Experts emphasized that systematic control of ASF through vaccination and biosecurity should be the basis for market stabilization in these conditions.
Ukraine will export 23.8 million tons of corn in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY, July-June), which is 8.3% more than in the previous MY, according to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UACB) on Facebook.
According to the association, production volumes are gradually recovering after the occupation of part of the territory: the harvest will reach 29.9 million tons (+11.2% compared to last year), although this is 6.8% less than the average for the last five years.
Analysts explained the improvement in gross harvest by an 11.6% increase in acreage to 4.5 million hectares. At the same time, due to heavy autumn rains, the harvest was delayed, and the average yield was 6.6 t/ha, which is 0.3% less than in the previous marketing year.
The UAC noted that in the 2024/25 marketing year, corn exports decreased by 25.6% (to 22.0 million tons) due to lower production and a decrease in carryover stocks from 6.4 million tons to 3.7 million tons. Experts estimated total domestic consumption in 2025/26 MY at 6.2 million tons, of which 5.2 million tons will be used for feed, 182 thousand tons for seeds, and 418 thousand tons for non-food processing.
“The Ukrainian corn market remains flexible. Despite the loss of land due to temporary occupation and difficult weather conditions, farmers are managing to increase acreage and gross harvest. The crop meets domestic demand for animal feed and is returning to export growth, remaining one of the mainstays of Ukrainian exports,” the UCAAB concluded.
Tourism should become a tool for Ukraine’s economic recovery, and a significant increase in the volume of Ukraine’s tourism industry is possible after the end of the war and complete security stabilization, according to Natalia Yakimenko, director of the travel agency “I’ll fly wherever I want!”
According to the annual study by the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC), by 2035, the contribution of travel and tourism to Ukraine’s GDP could grow 1.5 times to $16.1 billion, exceeding the pre-pandemic 2019 figures, when this indicator was 620.4 billion UAH ($15.5 billion, 6.3% of GDP). The global tourism market has already managed to recover after the decline due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but the war in Ukraine is still preventing tourism from being fully utilized as a tool for economic development.
“A 1.5-fold increase in foreign tourism is possible primarily after the end of the war and complete security stabilization. An important factor could be the restoration of the possibility for men to travel abroad freely, as many families are currently unable to travel together. The market will also be supported by the potential return of Ukrainians from abroad, as people who have lived in other countries for some time will retain the habit of traveling,” Yakimenko commented to the Interfax-Ukraine agency.
She stressed that a necessary factor is the restoration of direct air links, which will make travel to and from Ukraine easier and more affordable. “Provided there is economic growth and income stabilization, demand may recover fairly quickly,” Yakimenko said.
The Ukrainian hospitality industry has significant potential for growth in volume and an increase in its share of the economy as a whole. For comparison: according to WTTC data, the contribution of travel and tourism to global GDP was $11.7 trillion in 2025, which is 7.3% more than in 2024 and 13.6% more than in pre-pandemic 2019. Travel and tourism accounted for 10.3% of the global economy, up from 10% in 2024 but still below the 10.5% recorded in 2019. In 2025, the sector supported a total of 371 million jobs worldwide (10.9% of jobs), compared to 356.6 million (10.6%).
As for Ukraine, last year tourism accounted for 5.2% of GDP, reaching UAH 413.1 billion ($10.3 billion), which is 15.2% more than in 2024, but 33.4% less than in 2019.
According to Yakimenko, the average vacation check in Ukraine is already growing, our compatriots travel less often but go for longer periods due to complex logistics, and more often choose more comfortable hotels and better infrastructure. “Many customers consciously avoid mass budget resorts and destinations with many Russian tourists, even if it is more expensive. After prolonged stress, people want a full rest and emotional recovery, so they are willing to invest more in one trip,” she says.
There is a trend toward job recovery: in 2024, 766,700 people were employed in the industry (6.2% of all jobs in Ukraine), which is less than in 2019 (1.15 million, 6.9%), but 21.9% more than in 2024. At the same time, women make up the majority of those employed in the industry — 61.1% — and the share of young people under 24 is also significant (6.7%). Only 8% are high-paying jobs.
“Traditionally, more women work in tourism—this is a feature of the service industry. Young people are also actively involved, as the market requires flexibility and quick adaptation. At the same time, there is a growing focus on corporate social responsibility—companies are creating opportunities for veterans and internally displaced persons,” Yakimenko said, outlining labor market trends.
By the end of 2025, foreign tourists will have brought 58 billion hryvnia ($1.4 billion) to the domestic economy, which is one and a half times more than in 2024, but 61.3% less than in 2019. Domestic tourism is more stable – in 2025, it generated UAH 287.2 billion ($7.2 billion), which is 11.6% more than in 2024, but 16% less than in 2019. Overall, foreign visitors accounted for only 12.6% of the total in 2025. Business tourism also accounts for a small share (5.3%), with leisure tourism accounting for the bulk of tourist traffic (94.7%).
According to WTTC forecasts for the next decade, the share of tourism in global GDP will remain stable at around 11.5%, the total volume will grow to $16.5 trillion, and the number of jobs will increase to 461.6 million.
As for Ukraine, according to the WTTC’s analytical conclusions, by 2035 the industry will generate about 6.1% of GDP, with an estimated volume of $16.1 billion. Between 2026 and 2035, up to 400,000 new jobs will be created, bringing the total number of jobs to 1.16 million. In terms of revenue, foreign visitors could bring in $4.8 billion in 2035, while domestic visitors could bring in $8.7 billion.
According to Yakimenko, the trends that intensified in Ukraine after 2022 will continue. In particular, quiet resort destinations, beach and wellness vacations are now more popular, there is less spontaneity (the demand for short trips of up to 3 days and hot tours has completely disappeared), and the share of solo trips has increased. Themed trips are also popular (fitness tours, gastronomic tours, trips with influencers, retreats, etc.). “Separately, we see the prospect of developing inclusive tourism: our agency is actively researching this area and forming a list of hotels and destinations that are convenient for people with disabilities, because after the war, the demand for accessible recreation will only grow,” said Yakimenko.
Wheat exports from Ukraine in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY, July-June) are expected to reach 17.6 million tons, which is 11.5% more than in the previous season, according to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UAC).
The association estimates the gross harvest for the current season at 23.1 million tons, which is 2.9% more than in 2024/2025 MY.
According to analysts, the increase in production was made possible by the expansion of cultivated areas to 5.1 million hectares (by 4.8%), which offset the decline in average yield to 4.5 tons/hectare due to unfavorable weather conditions. At the same time, the current harvest is still 6.2% below the average for the last five years.
The UACB predicts that the increase in harvest will allow for an increase in shipments after a drop in exports in the previous season to 15.8 million tons. Experts cite the stable operation of Ukraine’s own sea route as the main factor in the recovery.
At the same time, domestic demand in Ukraine continues to decline due to the temporary occupation of territories and population migration. Total wheat consumption in 2025/2026 MY is forecast at 6.2 million tons, of which 3.7 million tons will be used for food, 1.5 million tons for feed, and 825,000 tons for seeds.
“The Ukrainian wheat market is demonstrating adaptability. Despite demographic challenges and weather conditions, farmers are managing to increase their acreage. Domestic needs are fully met, and the successful operation of export routes allows for the restoration of positive supply dynamics and guarantees Ukraine’s stable presence in key markets in Europe, Africa, and Asia,” the UCAAB concluded.
