The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has improved its forecast for global wheat and corn production in the 2025-2026 marketing year, with no change to its harvest forecast for Ukraine.
According to the forecast on the US agency’s website, the wheat harvest in Ukraine is estimated at 23 million tons, exports at 16.5 million tons, and ending stocks at 1.49 million tons. The corn harvest is expected to reach 30.5 million tons, with exports at 24 million tons and final stocks at 0.6 million tons.
At the same time, global wheat production in 2025/2026 MY will amount to 808.5 million tons (+0.07 million tons compared to last season), exports – 214.33 million tons (+1.34 million tons), and final stocks – 262.76 million tons (-2.97 million tons).
USDA analysts forecast global corn production in 2025/2026 MY at 1,265.98 million tons (+1 million tons compared to the previous season), global exports at 195.81 million tons (+0.01 million tons), and ending stocks at 275.24 million tons (-2.6 million tons).
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released the April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which provides updated forecasts for wheat and corn production, consumption, trade, and stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year.
Corn: world market
– Production: the forecast is increased by 0.9 million tons to 1 215.1 million tons. Increased production in the EU (+1.3 mln tonnes to 59.3 mln tonnes) due to higher harvests in Poland, Croatia, France and Germany, partially offset by lower production in Romania and Bulgaria.
– Trade: Exports are revised upward by 2.3 million tons to 188.7 million tons, mainly due to higher exports from the United States (+2.5 million tons to 64.8 million tons).
– Stocks: World ending stocks are lowered by 1.3 million tons to 287.7 million tons, reflecting a decrease in US stocks and an increase in stocks in South Korea and Pakistan.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released its April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which provides updated forecasts for wheat and corn production, consumption, trade, and stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year.
Wheat: global trends
– Production: downwardly revised by 0.3 mln tons to 796.9 mln tons, mainly due to lower production in Saudi Arabia and the EU.
– Consumption: decreased by 1.4 mln tons to 805.2 mln tons, due to reduced food, seed and industrial use in India and China.
– Trade: exports forecast reduced by 1.3 million tons to 206.8 million tons. Exports are expected to decline for Russia (-1.0 million tons to 44.0 million tons), Australia (-0.5 million tons to 25.5 million tons), and the EU (-0.5 million tons to 26.5 million tons), partially offset by increased exports from Canada (+0.5 million tons to 26.5 million tons) and Ukraine (+0.5 million tons to 16.0 million tons).
– Inventories: global ending stocks increased by 0.6 million tons to 260.7 million tons, down 3% year-on-year and the lowest level since 2015/16 MY.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has adjusted its forecast for Ukraine’s wheat exports for the 2024/25 marketing year (MY, July 2024-June 2025) and lowered it by 0.5 million tons to 15.5 million tons, and corn by 1 million tons to 22 million tons.
The updated USDA forecast for February indicates that in 2024/25 MY wheat and corn production in Ukraine will remain at 22.9 mln tonnes and 26.5 mln tonnes, respectively.
At the same time, a slight increase in wheat production and consumption is expected, however, according to USDA, trade volumes and ending stocks will be lower. Accordingly, the forecast for global wheat production was increased by 0.6 million tons to 793.8 million tons, due to increased production in Kazakhstan (+0.6 million tons, to 18.6 million tons) and Argentina (+0.2 million tons, to 17.7 million tons).
Global wheat consumption will also increase by 1.8 mln tonnes to 803.7 mln tonnes due to higher use of feed grains and transitional residues in the EU, Kazakhstan, Thailand and Ukraine.
At the same time, the global wheat trade will decrease by 3 million tons to 209 million tons due to the decline in exports by the EU (-1.0 million tons, to 28.0 million tons), Mexico, Russia (-0.5 million tons, to 45.5 million tons), Turkey and Ukraine (-0.5 million tons, to 15.5 million tons). The largest reduction is expected in China – by 2.5 million tons, to 8.0 million tons, which will be the lowest imports in the last five years, although last year this country was the world’s leading supplier of wheat.
The same picture is expected for the world ending stocks in 2024/25 MY, which, according to the updated forecast, will decrease by 1.3 mln tonnes to 257.6 mln tonnes, due to the reduction in China, partially offset by the increase in stocks in Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.
In 2024/25 MY, the global corn market is expected to decline in all indicators. The global corn production is expected to decline by 1.9 mln tonnes to 1 bln 212.5 mln tonnes, mainly due to Argentina (-1.0 mln tonnes, to 50.0 mln tonnes) due to lower yields as a result of heat and Brazil (-1.0 mln tonnes, to 126.0 mln tonnes) and slow sowing.
The main changes in the world corn trade are related to the decrease in the forecasted corn exports from Brazil (-1.0 million tons, to 46.0 million tons), Ukraine (-1.0 million tons, to 22.0 million tons) and South Africa. External ending stocks of corn for 2024/25 MY were reduced by 3 million tons to 290.3 million tons.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s grain production by 13% and exports by 26% due to the country’s depleted stocks.
According to the February forecast, the country’s ending grain stocks in the 2024-2025 marketing year (MY, July-June) are estimated at 1.8 million tons, up 19% from last year, but significantly lower than before the large-scale invasion in February 2022.
The EU will remain an important destination for Ukraine given its liberalized trade policy and geographical proximity. At the same time, Ukrainian exporters continue to regain their traditional markets, made possible by the efficient operation of the Black Sea ports, the report says.
According to the USDA, the wheat harvest in 2024/25 MY in Ukraine will amount to 22.9 mln tons, which is the same as last year, but its exports will decrease by 19% to 15 mln tons. The barley harvest will be 3% lower than in the season-2023/24, and is estimated at 5.9 million tons, while exports will amount to 2.6 million tons. The forecast for rye production was lowered by 18% to 190 thousand tons.
Rye has become a niche crop for Ukrainian farmers, so its production and exports can vary significantly from year to year, the USDA said.
The USDA forecasts the largest reduction in corn, the production of which will decrease by 24% compared to 2023/24 MY – to 24.6 mln tons, while exports will fall by 33% – to 19.6 mln tons. The ending stocks of the grain are forecasted at 722 thsd tonnes, up slightly from the previous year, but significantly lower than the 2.8 mln tonnes that were in reserve at the end of the 2022/23 season.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine in the 2024/2025 marketing year (MY, July 2024/June 2025) by another 1 million tons to 16.0 million tons.
As stated in the October USDA report on Friday evening, such revision was made due to an increase in the crop estimate from 22.3 million tons to 22.9 million tons, as well as a decrease in the estimate of domestic consumption from 7.0 million tons to 6.7 million tons and transitional residues from 1.09 million tons to 0.99 million tons.
The U.S. agency recalls that last MY the wheat harvest in Ukraine amounted to 23.0 million tons, exports – 18.58 million tons, while corn – 32.5 million tons and 29.6 million tons, respectively.
USDA forecasts world wheat production in the 2024/2025 season at 794.08 (-2.8 million tons to September forecast) and world exports at 215.82 million tons (-0.69 million tons).
The estimate of both world corn production to 1 billion 217.19 (-1.38 million tons to the September forecast) and world exports to 190.50 million tons (-0.87 million tons) has also been downgraded.
