JSC “NAEK ”Energoatom” will be profitable in all three scenarios during 2025-2028, with profits in 2028 expected to be twice as high as in 2026-2027, due in particular to the expected rise in electricity prices.
This forecast is contained in the annual information on fiscal risks prepared by the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine based on data from 12 state-owned companies as part of the adoption of the 2026 state budget. Within the document, basic, alternative, and negative scenarios are modeled for each company based on macroeconomic scenarios for the development of Ukraine’s economy.
“Net revenues from NAEK Energoatom to the state budget are expected in all scenarios and will grow as the company’s profitability increases,” the document says.
As noted by its authors, NAEK plans to build new power units in the long term and has plans in the medium term to attract sufficient debt financing to fund investments. However, construction will continue after the end of the medium-term period, and if such construction is financed through debt obligations, high costs are expected to increase the company’s obligations to a level that it may not be able to service.
“Fiscal risks may materialize if the government has to provide funding to cover part of these costs, or if the government has to service Energoatom’s debts,” the Ministry of Finance concluded.
Under the baseline scenario, Energoatom’s capital expenditures will average about UAH 59 billion per year from 2025 without budget financing, while expenditures on PSO for tariff compensation for the population will decrease by an average of 2.3% in the period 2026-2028.
In addition, the baseline scenario assumes an average increase in electricity prices of 7.9% per year, as well as a slight decrease in the company’s electricity production in 2026-2027, followed by an increase in 2028.
As the Ministry of Finance noted, NAEK received a net profit of UAH 1.3 billion in 2024, compared to a loss of UAH 11.3 billion in 2023. Last year, the company demonstrated a 35% increase in revenue due to a 33.5% increase in the weighted average price of electricity.
According to the results of 2024, the volume of PSO in Energoatom amounted to UAH 109.3 billion, or 53% of the company’s net income for that year.
