Passenger traffic across Ukraine’s border in the fifth week of autumn, from September 27 to October 3, decreased by 5.2% to 561,000, according to data from the State Border Service.
According to the data, the number of arrivals in Ukraine during the week decreased from 286,000 to 278,000, while the decrease in the outbound flow was more significant – from 306,000 to 283,000, which is explained by the end of the Jewish New Year “Rosh Hashanah” celebrations last week and the departure of pilgrims from Ukraine.
At the same time, the number of vehicles that passed through checkpoints increased from 133,000 to 137,000, while the flow of vehicles carrying humanitarian cargo remained approximately the same – 481.
This Sunday, as of 6:00 p.m., according to the State Border Service, the longest queue of 50 passenger cars was at the Ustyluh checkpoint, another 15 cars were waiting to cross the border at the Uhryniv checkpoint, and 10 cars had accumulated at the Shehyni checkpoint.
At the border with Hungary, there were queues of 20 cars at the Tisa and Luzhanka checkpoints, another 15 cars were waiting at the Vilok checkpoint, while at the border with Slovakia, there were queues of 15 cars at the Uzhgorod and Maly Berezny checkpoints.
At the border with Romania, there was a queue of 20 cars only at the Porubne checkpoint, while at the border with Moldova, 15 cars were waiting at the Mamalyga checkpoint.
The total number of border crossings this week is only 3.7% higher than last year, because then pilgrims came to celebrate Rosh Hashanah mainly during this week. Therefore, the number of those who left the country was less than the number of those who entered – 256 versus 285, respectively. The flow of cars was also lower – 128,000.
Last year, passenger traffic remained at approximately this level until a small surge during the autumn school holidays, after which it fell by about 20% until the Christmas and New Year holidays.
As reported, from May 10, 2022, the outflow of refugees from Ukraine, which began with the start of the war, was replaced by an influx that lasted until September 23, 2022, and amounted to 409,000 people. However, since the end of September, possibly influenced by news of mobilization in Russia and “pseudo-referendums” in the occupied territories, followed by massive shelling of energy infrastructure, the number of those leaving exceeded the number of those entering. In total, from the end of September 2022 to the first anniversary of the full-scale war, it reached 223,000 people.
During the second year of the full-scale war, the number of border crossings to leave Ukraine, according to the State Border Service, exceeded the number of crossings to enter by 25,000, during the third year by 187,000, and since the beginning of the fourth year by 180,000.
As Serhiy Sobolev, then Deputy Minister of Economy, noted in early March 2023, the return of every 100,000 Ukrainians home results in a 0.5% increase in GDP.
In its July inflation report, the National Bank worsened its migration forecast: while in April it expected a net inflow of 0.2 million people to Ukraine in 2026, it now forecasts a net outflow of 0.2 million, which corresponds to the estimate of the net outflow this year. “Net return will only begin in 2027 (about 0.1 million people, compared to 0.5 million in the previous forecast),” the NBU added. In absolute terms, the National
Bank estimates the number of migrants currently remaining abroad at about 5.8 million.
According to updated data from the UNHCR, the number of Ukrainian refugees in Europe as of October 3, 2025, was estimated at 5.192 million (as of September 2 – 5.138 million), and globally – at 5.753 million (5.696 million).
In Ukraine itself, according to the latest UN data for July this year, there are 3.340 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), compared to 3.757 million in April.
