The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced its sales of dollars on the interbank market by $227.2 million, or 40.6%, to $332.6 million last week, the lowest level since mid-April, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.
According to the NBU, it even managed to purchase $1.5 million, which is also the best result since mid-April this year.
According to the National Bank, during the first four days of last week, the average daily negative balance of currency purchases and sales by legal entities fell to $11.8 million from $49.6 million during the same period a week earlier, totaling only $47.3 million. Moreover, on September 29, for the first time in a long time, a positive balance of $49.8 million was recorded.
At the same time, on the cash market, on the contrary, there was a significant increase in currency purchases by the population, as a result of which the negative balance grew to $132.28 million from $34.6 million on Saturday-Thursday. This result is also due to the fact that, after a break of almost a month, purchases of non-cash currency exceeded sales on Tuesday-Thursday.
The official hryvnia-to-dollar exchange rate, which started last week at 41.3811 UAH/$1, strengthened to 41.1420 UAH/$1 in two days, but fell to 41.2286 UAH/$1 by the end of the week.
On the cash market, the dollar exchange rate over the past week followed the official rate, so overall it remained virtually unchanged for the week: buying was around 41.22 UAH/$1, and selling was around 41.30 UAH/$1.
“In the short term (1-2 weeks): the base corridor is 41.20-41.70 UAH/$1 with possible fluctuations and a tendency towards the upper limit. Medium term (2-3 months): 41.30-42.00 UAH/$1,” according to the forecast for the cash market exchange rate provided by experts from KYT Group, a major player in the cash currency exchange market.
They noted that spreads on the cash market remain stable (0.40-0.50 UAH/$), which reflects the controllability of the market and the absence of sharp imbalances that could radically change the market situation.
“The NBU’s reserves remain high, which guarantees the regulator has the resources to smooth out fluctuations. Demand for the dollar from the population is restrained, and import payments, like the behavior of the population, do not create a critical burden,” KYT Group believes.
As for the international context, experts believe that after the Fed’s actual rate cut in September, markets have already priced in a “cheaper” dollar, and now the focus is on the Fed and ECB’s further actions until the end of the year, which will be triggered by macro data (inflation, labor market, etc.).
“Long term (6+ months): the baseline scenario of a gradual devaluation of the hryvnia remains. The benchmark is 43.00-44.50 UAH/USD until mid-2026,” KYT Group said in a comment.
https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1108372.html
