Over the past month, Ethereum (ETH) rose to the $4,000+ zone with multiple “defenses” of the $4,000 level at the end of October, after which it entered a correction amid mixed flows in crypto ETFs and a pause in regulatory decisions in the US. As of Wednesday morning, the price was hovering around $3,300, below last week’s highs.
What drove the market last month?
After several rebounds from $4,000 at the end of October, activity rose above average, but momentum faded at the $4,050–4,200 support levels.
The decisions on new crypto ETFs expected in October were postponed due to the government shutdown in the US; however, some products still entered the exchange under a simplified procedure, which shifted the “main” catalysts to November.
In September, the SEC approved unified listing standards for commodity ETPs on leading US exchanges, which simplified the launch of new crypto ETFs and supported expectations for the expansion of product lines (including multi-crypto funds). I
Now let’s analyze the main factors for November–December (base scenarios).
1) Moderately positive. The launch of new ETFs/updated prospectuses and the resumption of institutional inflows to ETH are strengthening demand; technically, a return above $3,800–4,000 opens the way for a retest of the autumn highs.
2) Neutral. Overestimated expectations for ETFs and subdued on-chain indicators keep ETH in a wide range of $3,000–3,800 without a trend; local rallies are quickly fixed. (Benchmark: recent “sell zones” of $4,050–4,200).
3) Risky. Increased macro volatility or new outflows from ETH ETFs could trigger a decline to $2,800–3,100; in this case, the market will focus on medium-term support, and decisive drivers will be postponed until 2026. (Examples of data on outflows/capital flows into altcoins appeared this week).
Interestingly, Citi in September cited a base case estimate of $4,300 at the end of the year with a bullish scenario of $6,400 under favorable macro conditions and the use of Ethereum applications; the bearish case is $2,200.
After the spring network updates, the industry is discussing the next steps in the Ethereum roadmap; industry reviews mention the following UX and scalability improvements, but the key issue for the market in the coming weeks remains the regulatory block on ETFs in the US.
Note: forecasts are probabilistic and depend on macro conditions, ETF news, and fund inflows/outflows; investment decisions should be made with risk in mind.
https://www.fixygen.ua/news/20251105/efir-prosiv-pislya-testu-4-tis-prognozi-na-listopad-gruden.html
