The availability of surplus raw milk and unsold exchange goods is putting pressure on purchase prices in Ukraine and worldwide. The situation on the market is likely to stabilize at the end of the third quarter of 2026 as the excess supply of dairy products disappears from the market, according to the Association of Milk Producers (AMP).
The industry association noted that the average purchase price of extra-grade milk as of December 20, 2025, was UAH 15.30/kg excluding VAT, which is UAH 1.00 less than in the previous month, while the price of higher-grade milk was UAH 15.20/kg excluding VAT (-90 kopecks), and first grade milk was UAH 14.80/kg excluding VAT (-UAH 1.10). The weighted average price for the three grades was UAH 15.20/kg excluding VAT, which is UAH 1.05 less than in the previous month.
“The decline in purchase prices in Ukraine continues under pressure from excess raw milk supplies. In November, Ukraine produced 35,000 tons more raw milk than last year. These volumes were supposed to be exported as finished products. However, the crisis continues in export markets, and the supply of dairy products exceeds demand,” said AVM analyst Georgy Kukhaleishvili.
According to his data, Ukrainians consume an average of 200 kg of milk per year. However, due to the reduction in the number of consumers in the country as a result of forced migration due to the war, there is a significant surplus of raw materials on the market.
According to the AVM, another decline in purchase prices is expected from January 1, 2026, due to the surplus of raw milk that will form at enterprises during the New Year holidays, when there is traditionally a lull in market activity. Despite the decline in the price of raw milk, the production of butter and dry collected milk remains unprofitable.
Milk is becoming cheaper not only in Ukraine but also in other dairy regions, including the US and European countries.
“Stabilization in both the market for finished dairy products and raw milk is expected in the second half of 2026,” the AVM predicts.
