Last week, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced sales of dollars on the interbank market by $68.8 million, or 8.7%, to $725.5 million, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.
According to the NBU, in the first four days of last week, the average daily negative balance of buying and selling foreign currency by legal entities decreased to $95.8 million from $110.0 million in the same period a week ago, and totaled $383.1 million for the period.
The negative balance in the household foreign exchange market also decreased to $28.7 million from $36.9 million the week before, and cash purchases exceeded cash sales on all days.
The official hryvnia/dollar exchange rate, which started last week at 43.0487 UAH/$1, weakened to 43.0904 UAH/$1 over two days and ended the week at 42.9930 UAH/$1.
On the cash market, the dollar did not change significantly over the past week: as of February 12, the buying rate was about 42.79 UAH/$1, and the selling rate was about 43.19 UAH/$1.
Analysts of KYT Group (Liberty Finance LLC), a major participant in the cash foreign exchange market, noted that in the first half of February there were no significant stresses on the foreign exchange market, while the hryvnia slightly devalued against the dollar: the official exchange rate since the beginning of the month has changed from 42.84 UAH/$1 to 43.03 UAH/$1 at the end of the second week of February. In their opinion, the moderate dynamics was facilitated by the NBU’s interventions: since the beginning of January, the regulator has sold more than $4.33 billion on the market.
According to experts, the dollar is supported on the international market by the Fed’s keeping the base rate unchanged and relatively strong US labor market data, while the EUR/USD pair saw a slight strengthening of the dollar to 1.1874 in the first half of February.
In the domestic market, the spread at bank cash desks and exchange offices amounted to UAH 0.5-0.6/$1 in the first half of February.
According to the forecast of KYT Group, in the next one to two weeks the basic range of the hryvnia exchange rate will be 43.3-43.8 UAH/$1 with possible fluctuations towards weakening, while in the medium term of two to three months the exchange rate is expected to be in the range of 43.50-44.60 UAH/$1. According to them, the exchange rate in the coming months will be influenced by the demand for currency on the interbank market, the situation in the energy sector and at the front, as well as news about international support.
“Longer term (6+ months): the hryvnia is expected to devalue smoothly against the dollar, as well as regular and large-scale market support by the NBU’s foreign exchange interventions. The benchmark for the first half of 2026 is UAH 43.5-44.95/$,” KYT Group said.
