Wheat prices in Ukraine will continue to rise until at least mid-March due to reduced supplies from the Black Sea region and limited supply from producers, according to the analytical cooperative “Pusk,” created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR).
“Due to logistical constraints, the export volumes of one of Ukraine’s key competitors may fall by almost half. Accordingly, global importers will have to buy about 1–1.5 million tons of wheat from other suppliers, including Ukraine, Romania, and France,” analysts said.
According to experts, there is an imbalance in the domestic market: traders are actively contracting grain, while farmers are holding back sales. This leads to a weekly increase in wheat prices of $1–2 per ton. Weather risks and the threat of winter crop losses due to frost remain an additional factor supporting prices.
Currently, the conditional prices for food wheat (11.5% protein) on a CPT-port basis are $215–220 per ton. At the beginning of March, prices are expected to strengthen to $220–225 per ton.
Further price movements after mid-March will be determined by the condition of winter crops and the overall global market situation, Pusk concluded.
