Dubai’s real estate market, which ended 2025 with record figures, may face a temporary slowdown in demand in early 2026 amid military escalation between the US, Israel, and Iran, but experts do not expect prices to collapse yet.
In 2025, real estate sales in Dubai were estimated at $187 billion, with more than 215,000 transactions. Investors from India, the UK, and Russia were identified as key buyer groups, while in early 2026, some investors took a wait-and-see approach.
Among the factors putting pressure on the market, analysts highlight reports of incidents in landmark locations and the impact of transport restrictions: temporary disruptions and closures of air hubs reduce the influx of foreign buyers and complicate transactions, especially in a segment that depends on quick visits and viewings.
At the same time, prior to the current escalation, price dynamics remained positive: according to REIDIN, in January 2026, the Dubai residential sales price index rose by 0.75% compared to the previous month and by 11.79% year-on-year, indicating continued inertial growth at the onset of the crisis.
Market participants admit the possibility of a “pause without a fall” scenario if the hot phase ends quickly, but warn that a protracted conflict could severely affect liquidity and lead to a more noticeable correction, primarily in the most sensitive segments and locations.
