According to Serbian Economist, Serbia’s economic growth in 2026 could reach about 2.75%, but this scenario largely depends on the further development of the crisis in the Middle East and its impact on oil prices and overall inflation trends.
The energy factor has become particularly sensitive for Serbia in recent days. Against the backdrop of the conflict surrounding Iran, Brent crude has risen above $100 per barrel, and supply disruptions have already forced international organizations and central banks to revise their inflation and economic forecasts. The IMF has warned that sustained growth in energy prices could accelerate inflation and slow global growth, while the ECB has already raised its inflation forecast for 2026 and lowered its estimate for eurozone economic growth.
For Serbia, this poses a double risk—due to imported inflation and the deterioration of conditions for external demand in European markets. The National Bank of Serbia is currently maintaining its own GDP growth forecast for 2026 at 3.5%, but the external shock caused by oil and gas makes this estimate less robust, especially if high prices persist for more than a few weeks.
Additional pressure stems from the domestic fuel market. On March 19, Serbian authorities extended the ban on oil and petroleum product exports until April 2, ordered the release of 40,000 tons of diesel fuel from reserves, and reduced fuel excise taxes by 20% in an effort to prevent shortages and price spikes. The following day, the U.S. also extended the sanctions waiver for NIS until April 17, allowing oil imports to the Serbian market to continue.
Thus, the baseline scenario for Serbia’s economy in 2026 remains positive for now, but it increasingly depends not only on domestic demand and investment but also on geopolitics. If the situation in the Middle East stabilizes, growth may remain closer to official forecasts. If, however, the energy crisis drags on, pressure on inflation, consumption, and industry may prove stronger than expected at the beginning of the year.
