Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.8% in May of this year compared to May 2025, marking the third consecutive month of growth following 0.9% in April and March, according to estimates published by the Ministry of Economy and Environment.
“In May 2026, for the third consecutive month following the most difficult winter since the start of Russia’s full-scale military invasion of Ukraine, the economy continued its recovery (…), which made it possible to make up for the shortfall accumulated since the beginning of the year and, by the end of the first five months of 2026, return to the zero mark compared to the corresponding period of 2025,” the ministry’s report states.
According to these data, in January–May 2026, compared to January–May 2025, growth was observed in most sectors, particularly in domestic trade—thanks to the sector’s high flexibility and adaptability to changes and rising wages; the extractive industry—driven by oil and gas production against the backdrop of a low statistical base in 2025 due to damage to production infrastructure; in agriculture—specifically in the livestock sector (poultry farming); in the manufacturing sector—thanks to steady growth in the production of defense-related goods, products needed for the energy sector’s recovery, and food products.
At the same time, the Ministry of Economy noted that electricity supply and transportation remain the most affected and vulnerable sectors due to military risks.
As reported, the Cabinet of Ministers lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 1.6% from 2.4%, the figure on which the 2026 state budget was based when it was approved late last year. Under an optimistic scenario, which assumes the war will end by 2027, GDP growth next year will be 4.5%, while under a less optimistic scenario, it will be 1.3%.
In April, the National Bank lowered its GDP growth forecast for this year to 1.3% from 1.8%, but left its forecast for next year at 2.8%.
