Ukrainian banks expect further growth in their business and household loan portfolios over the next 12 months, as well as an increase in demand for all types of corporate and retail loans in the third quarter, according to the results of a survey by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
At the same time, these expectations have become more subdued: the balance of responses regarding growth in the business loan portfolio fell to 38.2% from 72.2% in the first quarter of 2026, and for retail loans—to 38.9% from 65.1%.
Banks forecast a slight improvement in the quality of the corporate loan portfolio over the next 12 months: the balance of responses stood at 7.3% compared to 7.1% a quarter earlier. At the same time, for the fourth consecutive quarter, respondents expect the quality of loans to households to deteriorate, although the corresponding balance has become less negative—“minus” 16.3% versus “minus” 17%.
Financial institutions also expect growth in deposits from businesses and households. The balance of responses regarding the expected change in the volume of corporate sector deposits rose to 53.7% from 50.7%, reaching its highest level since the start of the full-scale invasion, while the balance for household deposits rose to 53.8% from 53.3%.
In the second quarter, business demand for loans increased: the overall balance of responses rose to 35.5% from 34.4% in January–March, also reaching its highest level since the start of the full-scale invasion.
Demand for long-term loans saw the sharpest increase—rising to 35.4% from 24.6%. Demand for loans to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) rose to 24.7% from 23.8%, while demand for loans to large enterprises also increased, though at a slower pace than a quarter ago: the balance of responses fell to 26.9% from 34%.
Banks cited the need for capital investments and working capital as the main drivers of the growth in corporate demand. In the third quarter, they expect demand to increase for all types of business loans, particularly long-term ones.
Household demand also rose in the second quarter for both mortgage and consumer loans. According to banks’ estimates, demand for consumer loans has been growing since the second quarter of 2023, and for mortgages—since the beginning of 2025.
In July–September, respondents expect a further increase in household demand for loans, particularly for mortgages. Several large banks cited lower borrowing costs and improved prospects for the real estate market as the main drivers of rising mortgage demand.
Lending standards for the corporate sector remained virtually unchanged in the second quarter: the balance of responses stood at 1.7%, compared with “minus” 2.9% a quarter earlier. Standards for SMEs eased, though to a lesser extent than in January–March: “minus” 3.3% versus “minus” 25.2%.
In the third quarter, banks generally do not plan to change their corporate lending standards but expect them to ease for SME loans.
The approval rate for business loan applications remained largely unchanged in the second quarter: the balance of responses stood at 0% compared to 12.6% a quarter earlier. At the same time, for SMEs, it stood at 13% versus 24.4%, as some banks reported the possibility of providing them with larger loans.
For households, banks eased standards in the second quarter for both mortgages and consumer loans. For mortgages, the net balance of responses fell to “minus” 14.9% from zero, while for consumer loans it stood at “minus” 21.5% compared with “minus” 23.1% a quarter earlier.
Competition among banks remained the main factor behind the easing of consumer lending standards. For mortgages, additional factors included expectations regarding overall economic activity and the outlook for the real estate market.
Banks also expect a further easing of standards for both mortgage and consumer loans in the third quarter.
The approval rate for household loan applications rose in April–June. Banks reported lower interest rates, higher loan amounts, and longer terms for consumer loans, as well as lower mortgage costs and somewhat stricter collateral requirements for mortgages.
Banks assessed the debt burden on businesses in the second quarter as moderate, although assessments regarding SMEs tended toward the low end of the scale. The debt burden on households remained low.
In the second quarter, banks recorded an increase in credit, foreign exchange, and liquidity risks. The balance of responses regarding credit risk rose to 30.3% from 24.9% a quarter ago; for foreign exchange risk, it stood at 14.5% versus 21.3%; for liquidity risk, 8.4% versus 18.8%; while interest rate and operational risks remained largely unchanged.
At the same time, respondents expect currency and credit risks, in particular, to intensify in the third quarter.
The survey was conducted from June 16 to July 8, 2026, among credit managers at 25 banks, which accounted for 96% of the banking system’s total assets.
BANK, BUSINESS, LOAN, NBU, POPULATION
