According to estimates by the Mykhailo Ptukha Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, the population of Ukraine in government-controlled territory currently stands at between 28 and 29 million people—as reported by the institute’s leading research fellow, Svitlana Aksyonova, on Hromadske Radio.
“This is certainly an alarming sign; this trend is certainly alarming. First and foremost, it’s not just that the number of births is decreasing, but the ratio itself is very alarming. For four consecutive years—from 2022 to 2025—the ratio remained at three. In other words, the death rate exceeded the birth rate threefold. And now we see that, to be precise, the excess is about 3.5 times. That is, the gap between the number of deaths and the number of births has widened. For me, this is a very alarming sign,” Aksyonova said.
She cited another alarming sign: the decline in the number of newborns occurred as early as the first half of the year, whereas the seasonal decline usually occurs at the beginning of the year, with the second half being more active.
“Of course, it’s better to wait until the end of the year, when all trends become clearer. We have certain patterns: in the first half of the year, slightly fewer children are born than in the second. But this time, the decline occurred as early as the first half of the year. And that, too, is a very alarming sign,” she emphasized.
According to Aksyonova, the difficult conditions of last winter—in particular, prolonged power and heating outages—may have influenced the decisions of Ukrainian families.
“I thought that the impact of this harsh winter, with its power and heating outages, would become apparent in the second half of the year, since the decision to have a child is made at least nine months before the baby’s birth. But the decline occurred earlier. It was also very distressing for me to see that during the winter, families with young children were effectively left to deal on their own with the problems the entire country was facing. They had to think not only about caring for a newborn but also about where to get a battery, how to warm up formula, and how to provide the child with basic necessities. “This is very difficult, and I think it will influence young families’ decisions about having children,” she explained, adding that, at the same time, part of the decline in the country’s birth rate can be attributed to pregnant women leaving the country for safety reasons.
In addition, Aksyonova drew attention to changes in the composition of Ukrainian refugees, noting a slight increase in the proportion of men among those who have received temporary protection in European countries.
According to estimates by the Institute of Demography, Ukraine’s population in government-controlled territory currently stands at less than 30 million people.
“According to our calculations, it’s between 28 and 29 million people. We no longer even estimate the figure at 30 million. But this is always a range, because such calculations involve a great many assumptions. However, it is clear that the population is declining,” she explained.
Currently, the Institute of Demography is working on a new migration strategy designed to facilitate the return of Ukrainians after the war.
“The Institute of Demography is currently engaged in very painstaking work on a migration strategy that is gradually developing mechanisms for the return of Ukrainians from abroad. This is a complex task. As they say, there are no simple solutions to complex problems. Unfortunately, there is no single universal tool for this problem that would allow us to bring people back quickly,” Aksyonova concluded.
