The Black Sea Trade and Development Bank (BSTDB) predicts an economic decline in the Black Sea region of more than 5% of GDP in 2020 with a further recovery of 3-3.5% of GDP in the next two years, president of the bank Dmytro Pankin has said.
“What we know is that the Black Sea region (along with the rest of the world) is going to experience contraction in 2020, most likely in excess of 5%. However, due to the low base, we expect a rebound in 2021 and probably well into 2022, leading to growth averaging 3.0-3.5% in 2021-2022,” Pankin said in an exclusive interview with Interfax-Ukraine.
“Despite the contraction observed in 2020, there is still a robust demand for BSTDB financing, which our bank is happily providing, although the nature of the demand has changed. Many large-scale investments have been deferred, or even cancelled, and we are seeing more demand for direct corporate lending, and for support to SMEs through local financial institutions. We would expect this demand to increase as economies rebound in 2021 and 2022, in parallel to a rebound in larger investments and infrastructure operations,” the banker said.
“As we all know, relaxed monetary policies and expansionary fiscal policies have resulted in ample global liquidity, which benefits both developed and developing countries. As a development bank, we try to direct this cheap financing to real economic activities both in Ukraine and other countries,” he said.
“However, issues with political stability can inhibit or at best, postpone those investments. To fully take advantage of this ample liquidity Ukraine and all other countries need stability, working rule of law, good governance, and other related factors in place. This is particularly relevant for infrastructure investments,” he said.