The construction market in Ukraine in the first half of 2025 showed mixed dynamics: on the one hand, there was noticeable growth in residential construction and activity in the vast majority of projects, and on the other hand, there was a slowdown in engineering infrastructure and persistent problems with demand. Below are the main findings and forecasts from the Experts Club analytical center.
According to the State Statistics Service, the volume of construction work performed in Ukraine in January-June 2025 reached ≈92.998 billion UAH, which is 8.15% more than in the same period of 2024. However, different sectors show different dynamics.
For example, the area of new construction of apartment buildings increased by ~45–46% compared to the first half of 2024, to ≈2.86–2.97 million square meters. At the same time, the volume of work on engineering infrastructure (roads, communications, etc.) in January-May 2025 decreased by ≈17.8% compared to the same period last year. At the same time, work on non-residential buildings increased by ~29.5%.
Experts also point to many problems in the industry, the most important of which are:
1) Demand for primary housing lags significantly behind supply: many new properties are being built, but buyer activity is not keeping pace with the growth in supply.
2) Inflation (general and construction prices) and rising material costs are affecting construction costs and completion times.
3) The labor shortage is growing month by month, which could have a significant impact on the industry as a whole.
Forecasts for the second half of 2025 and the end of the year
Annual growth in the construction industry (including all segments: housing, infrastructure, commercial construction) is expected to be ≈16% in nominal terms, mainly due to the low base effect and active participation of international aid and state funding.
Private developers are likely to continue expanding their housing supply, especially in large cities and regions with high demand (Kyiv, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, etc.).
The infrastructure segment may remain weak unless government orders and investments, including international ones, are accelerated.
The building repair and renovation sector may receive an additional boost from reconstruction and restoration programs following destruction and wear and tear.
The Ukrainian construction market in the first half of 2025 is showing some signs of recovery, especially in the residential segment: the volume of work has increased, the construction of apartment buildings has increased, and business confidence has improved. However, the sustainability of growth is still limited: engineering infrastructure is the weakest link, and there are risks of declining profitability and slowdown if issues with material prices, staffing, and the legislative and regulatory environment are not resolved.
