The YouTube channel “Experts Club” has published a new video in which the founder of this think tank, Maksym Urakin, provides his analysis of Ukraine’s macroeconomic indicators and the state of the global economy in the first half of 2023.
Demographic indicators of Ukraine
Speaking about the demographic factor in the development of the Ukrainian economy, the expert cited data from the Opendatabot portal, which shows that the birth rate in the country continues to decline. According to these data, about 97 thousand children were born in the first half of 2023, which is 28% less than in the same period of 2021.
“The birth rate has been declining by about 7% annually since 2013. However, the full-scale war has aggravated the situation, causing the largest crisis in natural population growth. The demography of our country continues to be under pressure due to the current circumstances,” said Maksym Urakin.
According to him, in the first half of 2023, the number of marriages fell by 17% compared to the same period last year, while the number of divorces increased by a third, especially in Kyiv.
Economic recovery
Turning to the macroeconomic sphere, the economist emphasized that the Ukrainian economy has started to show signs of recovery.
“According to the NBU, Ukraine’s economy grew by 18.3% in the second quarter relative to the same period last year. This growth is relative to the period of the greatest decline at the beginning of the war.”, – said the founder of the club of experts.
Nevertheless, Maxim Urakin expressed concerns about the long-term outlook.
“Despite the current positive trend, the main risk for the Ukrainian economy continues to be related to the duration and intensity of the war. This may complicate the recovery, as well as cause problems with inflation and currency exchange rate,” Urakin noted.
According to him, the main negative factors affecting economic activity are a decrease or instability of international aid, as well as possible further destruction of energy infrastructure and problems with electricity supply in the fall and winter period.
Analysis of Ukraine’s foreign trade
Maxim Urakin also drew attention to the factor of growth of the negative balance of foreign trade, which has been noted since the beginning of the war.
“The country’s negative foreign trade balance continues to grow, reaching $9 billion in the first five months of this year, according to Gosstat estimates. This suggests that Ukraine is spending more currency on importing goods than it earns from exporting them. We see a sharp drop in exports of mineral products by 39.3%, ferrous and non-ferrous metals by 21.4%, wood and wood products by 17.7%, machinery products by 18.2%, chemical industry by 21.4% and other industrial goods by 4.1%,” – said the candidate of economic sciences.
However, not all the news in this sphere was pessimistic. Urakin emphasized the growth of food exports by 9.9%, which indicates the potential of the Ukrainian agro-industrial complex, which will probably become one of the main drivers of the country’s economic recovery in the coming years.
As for the balance of foreign trade in services, although still negative, the pace of its reduction gave some grounds for optimism.
“We see that the deficit of foreign trade in services is shrinking, which may indicate a gradual recovery of some service sectors in Ukraine,” the expert concluded.
Ukraine’s financial situation in 2023
However, equally important aspects of the economy, according to the expert, are government debt, international reserves and inflation.
“The country’s public debt continues to increase its volume. By the middle of 2023 he Ukraine approached the mark of 140 billion dollars. At the same time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has adjusted its forecasts on the level of the country’s public debt, reducing it from 98.3% of GDP to 88.1% of GDP. Despite this ‘positive’ realistic revision, this level of debt represents a significant burden for the national economy,” Maxim Urakin said.
The main source of financing of Ukraine’s budget, according to the expert, is still related to foreign aid.
“Half of the budget is financed by taxes and fees, while the rest comes from international grants and loans,” he emphasized.
Nevertheless, the country’s international reserves have shown positive dynamics.
“By August this year, Ukraine’s international reserves reached a record $41.72bn, which is 6.9% higher than the previous record. This increase is probably the result of active external financial support,” the analyst said.
As for inflation, it showed a slowdown. “After a record 27% inflation in 2022, this indicator fell to close to 4% in July this year,” Urakin noted.
Thus, the economic situation in Ukraine, according to the founder of the “Experts Club”, continues to be complex and multifaceted, requiring careful monitoring and adaptation of strategies in response to changing conditions.
World economy in 2023: analysis and forecasts
In the last presented studies of the “Experts Club” the economic situation in Ukraine was actively considered, however, according to Maxim Urakin, the dynamics of the world economy also has a significant impact on our country. According to the latest data, the world economy shows stable signs of growth, but there are also certain risks.
“The IMF has recently provided its forecasts for global economic growth. A growth of 3% is forecast for 2023 and the same is expected in 2024. The decisions taken by the US to resolve issues related to the level of public debt, as well as active actions in the US and Swiss banking sectors, have helped to reduce the immediate risks of a crisis in the global financial market. However, as the IMF emphasized, “the balance of risks remains tilted towards a possible deterioration of the economic situation at the global level,” the economist explained.
Inflation continues to be in the center of experts’ attention. Although the IMF lowered its inflation forecast for the current year to 6.8%, expectations for 2024 were adjusted upward.
Based on this information, Maxim Urakin concludes that the global economy is on the way to stabilization, but the situation remains ambiguous due to a number of uncertain factors. It is important for countries and their economies interacting in the global market to monitor changes and prepare for possible challenges.
Economic development in individual countries
According to the founder of the “Experts Club”, the global economy in 2023 is showing mixed results. While some countries are overcoming the effects of the pandemic and are on the path to stable growth, others are facing challenges from internal and external factors.
“The U.S. economy exceeded expectations, posting above-forecast growth. Meanwhile, consumer spending and government spending also showed solid growth, but residential investment continues to decline. China, which is on the road to recovery from the pandemic, showed strong economic growth, although the construction industry continues to experience a crisis. The Eurozone has shown moderate growth, with the region’s largest economy, Germany, facing recession. At the same time, the UK and Japan have positive adjustments to their GDP forecasts. India continues to strengthen its economic position, showing dynamic growth. Meanwhile, Brazil, although showing growth in the current year, expects a decline by 2024,” summarized the expert.
For more details on the situation in the Ukrainian and global economy, see the video on the YouTube channel “Club of Experts” at the link:
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ECONOMICS, EXPERTS CLUB, MACROECONOMICS, REVIEW_OF_ECONOMICS, URAKIN, WORLD_ECONOMY
In the western and northern regions of Ukraine on Sunday, August 27, in some places there will be short-term rain, thunderstorms, in the rest of the country without precipitation.
Wind of variable directions, 3-8 m / s.
Temperature at night will be 16-21°, up to 24° on the coast; during the day 29-34°, in the southwestern regions up to 36°, in the eastern and Sumy regions 26-31°; in the Carpathians at night 11-16°, during the day 23-28°.
In Kyiv, no precipitation on Sunday night, short-term rain during the day. Wind of variable directions, 3-8 m / s. The temperature at night will be around 20°, during the day 30-32°.
According to the Borys Sreznevsky Central Geophysical Observatory. On August 27, the highest daytime temperature in Kyiv was 33.3 in 1943, and the lowest nighttime temperature was 6.4 in 1973.
On Monday, August 28, in Ukraine, except for the eastern regions and Crimea, there will be short-term rain and thunderstorms in some places.
Wind of variable directions, 3-8 m / s. The temperature at night will be 18-23°, during the day 31-36°, in the eastern and northeastern regions 24-29°.
In Kyiv on Monday, in some places there will be short-term rain, thunderstorm. Wind of variable directions, 3-8 m / s. The temperature will be 20-22° at night, 33-35° during the day.
Ukrainian boxer Alexander Usik with the help of technical knockout defeated the British Daniel Dubois and retained the titles of the leading boxing organizations of the planet, reports “Suspilne. Sport”.
Already in the opening round, Dubois missed a jab from Usik with a right hand, which became the main highlight of the first three minutes of the fight.
Another jab from Usik “found” his opponent in the second round. The Ukrainian missed a kick to the thigh, which was signaled by the referee.
The initiative in Wroclaw remained with Usik, who realized his speed advantage over his opponent.
The fight was suspended in the fifth round due to the referee’s recording of Dubois hitting the Ukrainian below the belt. After taking a few minutes to recover, Usik resumed the fight and before the end of the round he delivered one of the most powerful left punches of the evening.
At the equator of the fight Dubois continued to work on his opponent’s body. The seventh round ended with a series of punches from Usik, who briefly pinned the Briton to the ropes.
In the last seconds of the eighth round, Dubois was knocked down for the first time. After a combination of punches from the Ukrainian, the challenger took a knee and managed to get up, after which the bell rang.
The fight was brought to a close by Dubois’ knockdown in the ninth round after a powerful right hand from the Ukrainian. The judge signaled an early knockout in favor of the Ukrainian.
The fight took place in Wroclaw, Poland. Five of Usyk’s belts were at stake, including three major titles (WBA, WBO, IBF) in the heavyweight division.
The All-Ukrainian Association of Bakers, the Union “Mukomols of Ukraine” and the Association of bakery enterprises “Ukrkhlebprom” appealed to law enforcement authorities and the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) with a request to stop the prosecution of the First Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotsky and to drop charges against him for using his official position during the state procurement of products in March-April-2022.
“We convincingly ask the leadership of law enforcement agencies, primarily the NABU, to objectively consider all the circumstances and facts, make the right conclusions and stop the prosecution of one of the most decent and professional officials”, – stated in the available “Interfax-Ukraine” appeal of three business associations, uniting the majority of producers of bakery products, flour, cereals and pasta.
The business associations expressed surprise at Vysotskyy’s notification of suspicion of committing a criminal offense under part 2 of Article 364 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine (use of official position to obtain an unlawful benefit for a legal entity contrary to the interests of the service) and assured law enforcement agencies that in this case there was an unfortunate mistake.
“We, as producers of essential products, remember well those extra difficult times of the beginning of the full-scale war with the Russian invaders, which stood on the outskirts of the capital, when it was a question of survival and ensuring food security of the state. A huge role in this process was played by the leadership of the relevant ministry, and first of all by T.M. Vysotsky, because it was thanks to his honest and highly professional actions to manage and coordinate the activities of the industry that it was possible to avoid interruptions and abuses in the supply of food to the population and the AFU”, – said public organizations.
They called the accusations against Vysotskyy groundless and asked law enforcement agencies to carefully familiarize themselves with the position of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, which they fully share.
As reported, on 24 August, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAP) accused the first deputy minister of agrarian policy of Ukraine, Vysotskyy, of abusing 62.5m hryvnyas in the purchase of food products to meet the needs of the state during martial law.
The Ministry of Agrarian Policy published a statement specifying the accusation received by Vysotskyy. In March-April 2022, he allegedly coordinated invoices for regional military administrations (RMAs) for the purchase of imported durum wheat pasta from Olimp LLC and WinsideLight LLC at inflated prices, which caused damage to the state in the amount of UAH 63 million. The investigation indicates that the cost of pasta products as of March-May 2022 ranged from 33.65-36.89 UAH/kg.
“The investigation does not take into account that the State Statistics Service of Ukraine for the period of March-May 2022 provides prices for pasta from durum wheat varieties for 500 g, and the purchase of 1 kg was carried out, so the price exceeded 72 UAH/kg, which excludes damage”, – emphasized in the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and added that the said arithmetical error should be taken into account and corrected by the investigation.
In addition, the investigation was advised to take into account the existence of a public contract for the supply of food products and its terms and conditions, which were not determined by Vysotsky. The Ministry of Agrarian Policy was not a party to the contract, all contracts were agreed upon by the regional military administrations. Vysotsky, in turn, drew the attention of the OVA representatives to the need to conclude deals at the lowest possible prices.
The share of the U.S. dollar in international settlements within the SWIFT system rose to 46.5% in July from 39.4% a month earlier, according to the monthly RMB Tracker report released by SWIFT.
Bloomberg agency calls the dollar’s July performance a record high. Ten years ago, the currency accounted for just over a third of all settlement volume.
The U.S. dollar remains the leader in terms of share in international settlements. The second position is still occupied by the euro, whose share last month fell to a historically low 24.4% from 38.4%, the third – the pound sterling (7.6% in July against 6% a month earlier), the fourth – the yen (3.5% against 2.7%), the fifth – the yuan (3.1% against 2.2%).
In 2012, the single European currency held 46% of settlement volume. This is its peak figure.
Meanwhile, the share of the Chinese currency exceeded 3% for only the second time in the history of observations. In 2010, it was about 0.03%.
The Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO) and the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) have exposed the First Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine and the former Deputy Minister of Economy of Ukraine for misuse of UAH 62.5 million in the purchase of food to meet the needs of the state during martial law.
As reported in the SAPO telegram channel on Thursday, the food was intended as humanitarian aid for the needs of eight regions of Ukraine, as well as the city of Kyiv.
As established during the pre-trial investigation, in March 2022, the First Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food implemented a scheme that provided for the purchase of products for the needs of regional military administrations at the expense of Ukrzaliznytsia JSC from a controlled company at prices 2-3 times higher than market prices. The price overstatement was due to the purchase of products from a foreign manufacturer (Poland) through a controlled intermediary company. As a result of this scheme, from March to August 2022, Ukrzaliznytsia suffered losses in the amount of UAH 28.8 million.
A similar scheme was used to purchase food products from a foreign producer in Turkey through a controlled spacer firm. To ensure the purchase of products, the scheme also involved the then acting Deputy Minister of Economy, who concealed data on the availability of more favorable offers from other market participants, including Ukrainian producers, and also induced officials of regional administrations to illegally approve applications and invoices for the purchase of products from the controlled company.
Due to the operation of the scheme from March to August 2022, Ukrzaliznytsia suffered damage of another UAH 33.7 million, according to the SAP and NABU. After receiving payment, the money was transferred to a foreign company with signs of fictitiousness for further legalization.
The above-mentioned officials have been announced on suspicion, their actions are qualified under part 2 of article 364 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine “Abuse of power or official position”
The post of First Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food has been held by Taras Vysotskyy since May 26, 2021.
