This article presents key macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy as of April 1, 2025. The analysis is based on the latest data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the United Nations. Maksym Urakin, Director of Marketing and Development at Interfax-Ukraine, Candidate of Economic Sciences and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
The first quarter of 2025 was a period of slow but positive economic movement for Ukraine. According to updated estimates by the National Bank of Ukraine, the country’s real GDP grew by 0.5% year-on-year, indicating a gradual stabilization after an unstable start to the year. This growth is not high by international standards, but in the context of a full-scale war, constant threats to infrastructure and logistics, and limited access to capital, this result is seen as a positive sign.
“Half a percent GDP growth in the first quarter is more an indicator of the system’s viability than a sign of development. The domestic market has begun to revive, especially in consumption, logistics, and certain technology sectors. But so far, this is mainly growth “in place” — without investment momentum, without exports, without long-term resources,” explains Maxim Urakin.
Inflation remains one of the main challenges. At the end of March 2025, the annual inflation rate was around 12.6%, which is almost unchanged from February but shows a gradual slowdown. The NBU points to the impact of seasonal declines in food prices, currency stabilization, and prudent monetary policy as key factors restraining price growth.
“The main thing is to maintain a balance between fighting inflation and preventing a slowdown in economic activity. The National Bank’s monetary policy in the first quarter was quite balanced: on the one hand, it kept the key rate unchanged, and on the other, it provided soft intervention support for the hryvnia. But we are still far from exiting the inflation risk zone,” the expert emphasizes.
The state of foreign trade, on the contrary, points to deepening structural problems. According to preliminary estimates by the Center for Economic Strategy, the foreign trade deficit reached $3.6 billion in April, as a result of a significant excess of imports ($6.3 billion) over exports ($3.1 billion). According to analysts, the cumulative trade deficit for the first quarter exceeded that of the same period in 2024, despite activity in the agricultural sector and services.
“The worst thing is that this deficit is not situational, but structural. Imports of energy, equipment, chemical products, and transport remain dominant, while exports are mostly limited to raw materials. This threatens currency stability in the event of a cessation of international financial support,” comments the founder of Experts Club.
Against the backdrop of a growing trade gap, the level of international reserves remains a positive sign. According to the NBU, as of April 2025, reserves stood at around $42 billion, a historic high for Ukraine. This growth was made possible by further tranches of financial assistance from the European Union, the US, and the IMF, as well as successful currency operations by the National Bank on the interbank market.
“Reserves of over $40 billion are not just an indicator, they are a safety net for a country living in a state of constant risk. But we should not be tempted by this: it is a resource of trust that must be transformed into economic recovery, otherwise we will lose it again, as we have done in the past,” warns Maksym Urakin.
However, the debt burden remains high. According to the latest estimates, Ukraine’s total public and publicly guaranteed debt at the beginning of April 2025 was about $147.2 billion, or approximately 94% of GDP, of which more than $100 billion is external borrowing. This highlights the country’s dependence on external assistance and international financing, in particular from the IMF, the EU, and the World Bank.
Global economy
Global economic indicators at the beginning of April 2025 point to a slowdown in growth, accompanied by continued inflationary pressures, particularly due to new trade risks and geopolitical instability. According to the IMF, global growth has accelerated its decline to 2.8% in 2025, one of the lowest levels in decades . Inflation is gradually declining in most regions, but remains above target, especially in developing countries .
Macroeconomic uncertainty has intensified amid trade protectionism, rising energy prices, and geopolitical challenges, making forecasting much more difficult. Central banks that have not yet tightened policy are in wait-and-see mode, and investors are becoming more cautious. Morgan Stanley and S&P Global forecasts point to a further slowdown in global GDP to 2.2–2.9% in 2025, which is weighing on investor confidence.
According to the BEA, US GDP contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, the first decline since 2022. This was mainly due to a sharp increase in imports (pre-purchases ahead of possible tariffs) and a reduction in government spending. However, final domestic demand remained relatively stable (+3%). Inflation in March/April was approximately 2.3–2.6% (PCE), in line with the regulator’s expectations; the Fed is keeping rates at 5.25–5.5% pending signs of stabilization.
According to official data, China’s GDP grew by +5.4% y/y in Q1 2025, in line with the government’s target of around 5%. However, fiscal and monetary constraints, particularly in the real estate sector, are slowing down growth. By May, budget revenues had fallen by 0.3% y/y, indicating a slowdown in economic activity. Stimulus measures are being introduced in response, but their effect is still uncertain.
The European Commission forecasts annual GDP growth of +1.1% for the EU and +0.9% for the eurozone, with a marked improvement in the first quarter (+0.6% q/q), the highest figure since 2022. Inflation in March/April was below 2%, gradually approaching the target level.
According to the ONS, in the first quarter of 2025, the UK showed GDP growth of +0.7% q/q, making it the leader among the G7. In annual terms, growth was approximately +1%. Inflation in April was around 3.4%, prompting the Bank of England to remain cautious in lowering rates (from 5.25% to 4.5%). However, exceeding the inflation target is holding back the economy’s recovery.
In the first quarter, Turkey showed positive growth of around +2.3% q/q, or ≈+3.0% y/y. Inflationary pressures remain extremely high at ≈38–39% in March/April, despite measures taken by the central bank.
The Indian economy continues to show one of the highest growth rates among major economies: in the first quarter of 2025, the rate was +7.4% y/y, with inflation under control: CPI — ~3.2% in April. The forecast for the 2024–25 financial year is +6.3–6.5%.
In the first quarter, Brazil managed to achieve GDP growth of +1.3% q/q (≈+3.5% y/y), which is the best result in the last two years. However, inflation rose to 5.48% in April, the highest level since February 2023, and is a source of serious concern.
“The world at the beginning of the second quarter shows promise, but at the same time high instability. The US has fallen into recession, but domestic demand is still holding up. Europe is slowly emerging from the crisis, and the UK is showing resilience. China is stable in terms of growth but weak in consumption. India is a model of dynamism and innovation. Turkey is on the brink of an inflationary crisis. Brazil is moving forward but is at risk due to rising prices. Ukraine must now decide whether to use the flow of imported resources solely to offset the deficit or turn it into an opportunity for a technological and industrial breakthrough,” said Maxim Urakin.
Conclusion
At the beginning of the second quarter of 2025, Ukraine’s economy is in a phase of sustained equilibrium. Modest growth, controlled inflation, and record reserves are the basic factors of stability. However, a deep trade deficit, debt burden, and lack of investment drivers remain key risks for the medium term.
The global economic picture remains mixed, with clear geographical imbalances. Ukraine is showing resilience, maintaining growth and record reserves, while facing challenges in foreign trade. Global markets, from the US to India, are shaping new conditions for strategic solutions to these challenges.
A more detailed analysis of Ukraine’s economic indicators is available in the monthly information and analytical products of the Interfax-Ukraine agency, Economic Monitoring.
Head of the Economic Monitoring project, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maxim Urakin
https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1085984.html
The National Bank of Ukraine on July 7, 2025 applied to JSC “IC ”INGO” (Kiev) a measure of influence in the form of imposing a fine in the amount of UAH 1.819 million for violation of legislation on the protection of the rights of consumers of financial services, reported on the website of the NBU.
According to the information, during the inspection of the company were found violations of legislation on the protection of the rights of consumers of financial services defined by the Civil Code of Ukraine, the laws “On electronic commerce”, “On insurance”, “On financial services and financial companies”, as well as the provisions of the NBU on the peculiarities of the conclusion of insurance contracts with consumers and on the authorization of financial service providers and the conditions of their activities in the provision of financial services.
IC INGO is obliged to pay the fine within one month from the date of entry into force of this decision.
JSC Insurance Company INGO has been providing insurance services for 30 years. Since 2017, the main shareholder is the Ukrainian business group DCH.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) last week, almost in the absence of currency purchases, reduced its sale on the interbank market by $213.5 million, or 24.4% – to $661.1 million. According to the National Bank’s data on its website, the cash market recorded its first surplus of $2.8 million over the weekend and Monday, but in the following days dollar purchases again exceeded sales by $20-33 million daily.
The official hryvnia exchange rate fell slightly over the week – from 41.6409 UAH/$1 to 41.7341 UAH/$1, while due to the weakening of the dollar on the international market, the euro rose in price more strongly – from 48.7823 UAH/EUR1 to 49.1210 UAH/EUR1, and on July 2 reached a new record – 49.4093 UAH/EUR1.
In the cash market, the dollar appreciated by only 2 copecks on the results of the week. – to 41.6/41.7 UAH/$1, while the euro appreciated by up to 10 copecks. – 49.35/49.53 UAH/EUR1.
“Short-term (1-3 weeks) is likely to fluctuate within the range of 41.30-42.00 UAH/$1 without going beyond 42.10 UAH/$ in the absence of external shocks or short-term situational surges”, – predict experts of a major participant of the cash currency exchange market “KYT Group”.
In their opinion, medium-term (2-4 months) return to the levels of UAH 42.00-42.50/$1 is possible in case of strengthening of import demand, increase of budget payments or realization of risks with financing or change of expectations and moods of the population and market operators.
As for the euro, KYT Group believes that in the short term, taking into account external factors and stable demand, the euro exchange rate may head towards the corridor of UAH 49.00-49.50/EUR1 with a possible breakthrough to UAH 50.00/EUR1, if it receives additional external drivers.
Medium-term, the European currency is likely to go above UAH 50.00/EUR1, especially if the euro remains at a global high and the current international drivers of its growth are maintained.
“Keep your focus on the euro. If your business model provides for expenses or revenues in euro, it is worthwhile to revise the structure of currency risk already now, to put a margin of safety in contracts or to test possible scenarios of the exchange rate breakout above UAH 50/EUR1”, – the company believes.
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1083979.html
Volumes of investments in primary housing in the next 2-3 years will grow up to 15% annually, such a forecast was voiced by CMO Alliance Novobud Irina Mikhaleva in comments to the agency “Interfax-Ukraine”.
“The market has adapted to the realities of wartime, and key investors – in particular Ukrainians, and for business class – often foreigners, are increasingly choosing new buildings as a tool for preservation and multiplication of capital. In the next 2-3 years we expect that the volume of investment in primary housing will grow by 10-15% annually, the demand for income property and business class real estate will increase, and the main role will be played by trust in the brand of the developer and security of location”, – said Mikhaleva.
She noted the competition from the secondary market, but does not consider it determinant. After all, the primary market competes not only with more comfortable layouts and well thought-out infrastructure, but also with systematically better quality solutions, first of all, safe and inclusive.
“Modern layouts with wider doorways, spacious bathrooms, principles of inclusiveness, new and reliable engineering communication systems, safe and reliable monolithic-frame construction technology, energy efficiency, alternative ways of energy supply,” Mikhailova lists the advantages of primary housing.
According to experts of Alliance Novobud, soon there will be a shortage of ready housing in the segment of the capital’s business and comfort classes. The reasons are different: in the business class part of the projects have not yet been restored or are realized with significant delays, in comfort – the potential demand is higher than the volume of launch of new projects.
“To ensure maximum investor protection, we are implementing several key approaches in Alliance Novobud, in particular, transparency of the legal model, financial stability of the company, construction phasing and internal control. At the same time, we continue to adapt to the needs of the market, offering investors installments more affordable than bank mortgages,” she says.
According to the data of the portal of new buildings LUN, Alliance Novobud was founded in 2006, since 2010 the company has commissioned 37 houses and parking lots. During the full-scale invasion commissioned 12 houses for more than 1.3 thousand apartments in Brovary and in Kiev. In the process of realization 9 houses of Krona Park II residential complex in Brovary and a premium class project in the capital Montreal House.
In 1,780 cases of violation of customs rules, the objects of offenses worth almost UAH 370 million were temporarily seized. In particular:
– industrial goods worth UAH 213 million
– vehicles worth over UAH 122 million
– foodstuffs worth over UAH 33 million;
– currency worth UAH 2.2 million.
In 899 cases of customs rules violations, including those initiated in previous periods, customs applied administrative penalties in the form of fines amounting to UAH 31 million, and collected UAH 31 million to the state budget, taking into account cases considered in the previous period. The customs authorities submitted 2,689 cases of customs rules violations worth over UAH 5.5 billion to the courts. As a result of court proceedings, including those initiated in the previous periods, penalties (confiscation of goods and fines) amounted to UAH 2.5 billion.
Realty Summit 2025, one of the key platforms for discussing the state and prospects of the Ukrainian real estate market, brought together leading industry players in Odesa this year. At the invitation of DIM.RIA, CMO of Alliance Novobud, Iryna Mikhaleva, joined a discussion panel on current market challenges and effective formats of cooperation between developers and realtors.
During the blitz, the speakers shared their views on the current state of the primary real estate market, demand for new buildings in 2024-2025, key trends and challenges for developers. The participants also discussed financial instruments for buyers, including the implementation of the eOselya program, mortgage lending terms and accreditation of developers in banks.
A separate discussion block was devoted to cooperation between developers and realtors, an important component of modern sales. Iryna Mikhalova shared Alliance Novobud’s experience in building partnerships with agencies and individual market professionals, described cooperation models that have already proven their effectiveness, and outlined the benefits for both parties.
“Today’s real estate market requires flexible solutions and open dialog. Events such as Realty Summit bring together experts who are ready to share practical cases and look for answers to the challenges we face every day,” said Iryna Mikhaleva.
Alliance Novobud, DIM.RIA, Iryna Mikhaleva, Realty Summit 2025
