Internal and external debt of Ukraine in 2010-2023
Source: Open4Business.com.ua and experts.news
Forecast of changes in discount rate of National Bank of Ukraine, %
Source: Open4Business.com.ua and experts.news
In Kiev region on Sunday, March 10, variable cloudiness, without precipitation, reports Ukrhydrometcenter. The wind is south-eastern with a transition to northeastern, 5-10 m/s.
The temperature at night 0-5° frost, during the day 4-9° heat.
In Kiev, cloudy with clearings, no precipitation. The wind is south-eastern with a transition to northeastern, 5-10 m/s. The temperature at night 0-2° frost, during the day 5-7° warm.
March 11-12 in Kyiv region is cloudy with clearing. March 11 without precipitation; March 12 – rain with transition to wet snow.
The wind is southeast, 7-12 m/s.
The temperature at night from 2° warm to 3° frost, during the day 1-6° warm.
In Kiev, cloudy with clearings, no precipitation on March 11, rain with change to wet snow on March 12.
The wind is southeast, 7-12 m/s. Temperatures at night and in the afternoon 0-2° warm, in the afternoon on March 11 4-6° warm.
On March 13-14 in Kiev region wet snow and rain.
Temperatures at night and in the daytime from 1° frost to 4° warm.
In Kiev, wet snow and rain, the temperature at night and in the daytime 1-3 ° warm.
Ukrainian metallurgical enterprises according to the results of work in January-February of the current year increased production of total rolled products, according to operational data, by 52.5% compared to the same period last year – up to 900 thousand tons from 590 thousand tons.
According to the information of Ukrmetallurgprom association on Friday, during this period steelmaking increased by 52% against January-February-2023 – up to 1.076 million tons from 708 thousand tons.
Iron smelting increased by 42.5% to 1.050 million tons from 737,000 tons.
As reported, in January-2024 increased output of total rolled products by 75.9% y-o-y to 453,000 tons from 257,000 tons, steel by 91.6% to 544,000 tons from 284,000 tons, pig iron by 44.5% to 555,000 tons from 384,000 tons.
Ukraine in 2023 increased production of total rolled products by 0.4% compared to 2022 – to 5.372 million tons, but decreased steel production by 0.6% – to 6.228 million tons, pig iron by 6.1% – to 6.003 million tons.
Ukraine in 2022 reduced production of total rolled products by 72% compared to 2021 – to 5.350 million tons, steel by 70.7% – to 6.263 million tons, pig iron by 69.8% – to 6.391 million tons.
For 2021, 21.165 million tons of pig iron (103.6% to 2020), 21.366 million tons of steel (103.6%), 19.079 million tons of rolled products (103.5%) were produced.
Ukraine in February 2024 compared to January has increased the volume of electricity exports 12 times, but reduced the volume of imports by a third, DiXi Group reported with reference to the Energy map portal.
As noted in its report on Friday, Ukraine exported a total of 63.1 thousand MWh (5.2 thousand MWh in January – ER), of which the most – 32% (20 thousand MWh) went to Moldova. Another 30% (19.1 thousand MWh) went to Romania, 20% (12.6 thousand MWh) – to Poland, 14% (9 thousand MWh) – to Slovakia, 4% (2.4 thousand MWh) – to Hungary, to which electricity supplies were resumed after a two-year break with the introduction of joint auctions for the allocation of sections.
It is noted that after February 11, exports exceeded imports on almost all days.
However, at the end of the month, imports were 21 MWh more than exports, totaling 84.1 thousand MWh (one-third less than January’s 122.8 thousand MWh).
40% (33.6 thousand MWh) of this volume came from Slovakia, 34% (28.7 thousand MWh) – from Romania, 16% (13.6 thousand MWh) – from Poland, 7% (6.2 thousand MWh) – from Moldova, 3% (2.1 thousand MWh) – from Hungary.
DiXi Group experts point out that in February 2023 there were no exports at all, while imports were 41% higher at 141.8 thousand MWh.
They also note that last month Ukraine received five times (February 2, 4, 27-29) emergency aid from Poland, which bought back surplus Ukrainian electricity – a total of 5.9 thousand MWh.
On February 7, Ukraine accepted excessive 1.2 thousand MWh from Poland as emergency aid.
Ukraine’s economic growth will continue in 2024 on the back of expanding domestic demand and a further recovery in seaborne exports, but it will fall to 3.9% from around 5.5% last year due to the high base effect created by the past strong agricultural season, international rating agency S&P Global Ratings forecast.
“Absent a significant escalation of the war, we forecast Ukraine’s economy to grow by about 4-5% on average over the medium term, but a recovery to pre-war levels is unlikely in the foreseeable future,” it said in its release on Saturday night as it downgraded Ukraine’s long-term foreign currency rating to ‘CC’ from ‘CCC’ with a negative outlook amid an expected Eurobond restructuring.
S&P estimates that average annual inflation will fall to around 7% this year from 12.8% last year, but it will pick up in the second half of this year amid weakening base effect, recovering domestic demand and moderate currency depreciation.
The agency expects the hryvnia to depreciate to 41.02 UAH/$1 at the end of this year and to 43.89/$1 at the end of next year.
S&P emphasizes that the development of the war with Russia continues to shape Ukraine’s macroeconomic outlook. It is unclear how the war may evolve, but we believe a military stalemate without any major changes on the front lines remains the most likely scenario as both sides resign themselves to a protracted war. The prospect of any negotiated peace plan seems unlikely. As a result, we assume that the active phase of the war will last until the end of this year, and most likely beyond,” the document says.
The agency recalls that Russian troops have occupied about 15% of Ukraine’s territory, which accounts for about 8-9% of its pre-war GDP, 14% of industrial and 10% of agricultural production. Almost a third of Ukraine’s population has been displaced and about 15% have fled the country and are now refugees living mainly in the EU.
Nevertheless, according to S&P’s baseline scenario, the Ukrainian government and the NBU will maintain their administrative capacity even in the face of serious military attacks.
Given the significant damage to physical and human capital, Ukraine’s medium-term economic prospects are subject to a high degree of uncertainty, the agency notes. In its view, the key factors determining the country’s recovery prospects are the evolution of the war, post-war demographics and labor market profile, as well as the effectiveness of reconstruction efforts and continued international support.
S&P notes a high degree of uncertainty about the scope, outcome and consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war. In its view, regardless of the duration of hostilities, the associated risks are likely to persist for some time.
As reported, the National Bank of Ukraine in January estimated the country’s GDP growth in 2023 at 5.7% and maintained its 2024 growth forecast at 3.6%, slightly worsening it for 2025 – from 6.0% to 5.8%.
The government, when approving the draft state budget for the second reading in early November 2023, improved last year’s GDP growth estimate from 2.8% to 5%, but worsened it for 2024 from 5% to 4.6%.
