Business activity in the euro area at the end of 2025 grew weaker than expected amid a deepening recession in manufacturing and slower growth in the dominant services sector, according to preliminary data from the business activity index (PMI) prepared by HCOB and S&P Global.
According to the assessment, the HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite PMI declined to 51.9 points in December from 52.8 points in November, falling to its lowest level in three months and below the forecast of analysts polled by Reuters. The value above 50 points still indicates an increase in business activity.
The situation in industry continues to drag the index down: the eurozone manufacturing PMI in December fell to 49.2 points, the lowest since April, reflecting the continued decline in output and a steeper new orders slump, the largest since February. Deepening weakness in German industry was cited as the main factor, while France showed cautious signs
In the services sector, business activity is still picking up but the pace is slowing, with the services PMI down to 52.6 points from 53.6 points in November. Meanwhile, companies continue to increase employment, but business optimism fell to its lowest level since May, indicating that businesses are cautious about the outlook for 2026.
According to a Reuters poll of analysts, rising cost pressures and output prices at the end of the year do not change the overall picture: inflation in the eurozone has moved closer to the 2% target on average, and the market in the baseline scenario expects the European Central Bank’s key rates to remain unchanged until at least 2027.
