In the third quarter of 2026, businesses significantly downgraded their expectations regarding business activity for the next 12 months: the Business Expectations Index (BEI) fell to 100.8% from 107.0% in the second quarter, according to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
“Respondents expected a decline in the volume of goods and services produced in Ukraine and noted unfavorable prospects for the financial and economic development of their enterprises,” the regulator said.
Enterprises in 11 of the surveyed regions and in most sectors maintained positive expectations regarding business activity. Businesses view future investment expenditures on machinery, equipment, and inventory; total sales of their own products; and investments in construction work positively, while their assessments of their financial and economic condition and future workforce size are negative.
Military operations and their consequences remain the main factor holding back companies’ efforts to ramp up production; a shortage of skilled workers is also a significant constraint.
Businesses have revised downward their expectations regarding the volume of goods and services produced in Ukraine over the next 12 months: the balance of responses stood at -11.9%, compared to 7.6% in the second quarter. Negative expectations were reported by enterprises in all surveyed economic sectors, except for energy and water supply, where no changes are expected.
Inflation expectations remained virtually unchanged: expected annual inflation over the next 12 months stands at 11.5%, compared to 11.6% in the previous quarter. Military operations and their consequences were cited as the main inflationary factor by 85.5% of respondents, which is 4.9 percentage points higher than in the second quarter.
Exchange rate expectations strengthened somewhat: the average projected hryvnia exchange rate is 46.90 UAH/$1 and 54.85 UAH/EUR1, compared to 46.12 UAH/$1 and 54.42 UAH/EUR1 in the previous quarter.
Assessments of enterprises’ current financial and economic condition deteriorated: the balance of responses stood at -7.0%, compared with -5.1% in the previous quarter. Expectations regarding the financial and economic condition for the next 12 months also worsened—to -4.3% from 2.4%.
Enterprises continue to expect growth in sales volumes, particularly in the foreign market, but at significantly slower rates: the net balance of responses stood at 4.0% and 2.0%, respectively, compared to 18.4% and 17.0% in the second quarter. Energy and water supply companies expect the strongest sales growth in the domestic market, while construction companies expect it in the foreign market.
Expectations regarding investment spending on machinery, equipment, and inventory remain positive but have weakened: the balance of responses stood at 10.4%, compared to 15.5% in the second quarter. Assessments of investment in construction work also remained positive—0.5% compared to 2.1%.
Companies attracting foreign investment continue to expect growth in investment volumes, albeit at a slower pace: the balance of responses stood at 7.8% compared to 8.9%. The share of those planning to attract such investments rose to 21.4% from 20.3%.
Assessments regarding the number of employees deteriorated: the balance of responses stood at -6.7%. Companies in all surveyed sectors, except for the “other” category, expect staff reductions, with the mining industry seeing the largest declines.
The need for borrowed funds in the near term has weakened slightly compared to the second quarter—32.6% versus 35.3%—while the share of those planning to take out bank loans remained virtually unchanged—35.6% versus 36.0%.
The share of companies planning to take out loans in the national currency rose to 86.9% from 80.8%. High interest rates and the availability of other sources of financing remain the main reasons for postponing borrowing—45.5% and 42.0% of responses, respectively.
According to the survey results, the share of companies planning to raise funds abroad rose to 7.9% from 6.5%. Assessments of the strictness of conditions for accessing bank loans improved: the balance of responses stood at 11.6% compared to 13.9% in the previous quarter.
The survey was conducted from July 30 to August 28, 2026, among 664 enterprises from 21 regions of the country.
The sample included 21.2% of enterprises in trade, 18.8% in manufacturing, 14.5% in agriculture, 13.7% in transportation and communications, 5.9% in the extractive industry, 5.0% in energy and water supply, 3.3% in construction, and 17.6% in other sectors. Among the respondents, 29.5% were large enterprises, 37.7% were medium-sized enterprises, and 32.8% were small enterprises.
