On October 26, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) will cut its key policy rate by 2 percentage points (p.p.), from 20% to 18% per annum, bankers said at a press conference of the Association of Ukrainian Banks (AUB) on Wednesday.
“We expect the rate to go down… We think that it can still go down by about 2%,” said Semen Babayev, deputy chairman of Pravex Bank.
According to him, it will also depend on the situation at the frontline and on the support of foreign partners.
Mr. Babayev noted that a rate cut would make it less attractive to place funds in the National Bank’s certificates of deposit, including overnight ones.
“…We, for our part, have already reduced the rate (for deposits of 3 months and more – IF-U) for our customers by 1 percentage point yesterday, offering 13%, but this is also a high rate for international banks,” said the deputy chairman of Pravex Bank.
The banker emphasized that the rapid decline in the cost of money must be justified. He also warned that if banks stop placing their free funds with the National Bank, it could lead to excessive liquidity in the system, which would affect the exchange rate.
“Of course, if we have free resources and we as a banking system are forced to do something with these resources because we lose the ability to place them somewhere, the question will arise as to what to do with them, where to put them: either to return them to customers, which will provoke demand for the currency, or to provide some credit offers,” he said.
Nadezhda Vorobyova, Chairman of the Board of Altbank, shares his opinion on the rate cut, noting that there are grounds for it. Among them, she named the decline in inflation to 7.1%, international reserves of $39.7 billion and their forecast of $38.3 billion at the end of the year, and the exchange rate of 36.45 UAH/$1.
“I think that on October 26 (IF-U) there will be (a decline) of about 2%,” she said.
Vorobyova believes that the National Bank will act cautiously, taking into account the possible impact of the discount rate on the exchange rate and inflation.
“If we make a sharp cut in the interest rate… the money that was attracted by banks for 3-6 months will become unprofitable for banks… There will be no outflow, but banks will lose money on this and offer cheaper deposits. This may lead to people wanting to buy foreign currency, which means there will be a demand for foreign currency,” explained the Altbank CEO.
According to her, the economy needs to be restored by intensifying lending by banks in addition to existing government programs, while making loan rates affordable for businesses – at 14-15%.
Mykhailo Vlasenko, Chairman of the Board of Idea Bank, also expects the key policy rate to be cut by 2 percentage points to 18%, and he supported his colleagues’ opinion that lending to households and small and medium-sized businesses should be resumed.
In his forecast, Vlasenko was guided by the information previously announced by the regulator that the key policy rate would be cut to 16-18% by the end of this year, which, in turn, will depend on macroeconomic indicators and exchange rate stability.
“In my opinion, it’s closer to 18%, because a too rapid reduction of the key policy rate, especially in this period – November-December, in the context of the foreign exchange market’s sensitivity and a significant surplus of hryvnia liquidity, may increase risks and affect exchange rate stability and inflation,” he explained.
Mr. Vlasenko believes that deposit rates will not decline significantly.
“Banks will be forced to revise their business plans and develop plans to intensify lending. I believe that the time for “sitting in the trenches” is over,” said the Chairman of the Board of Idea Bank.
He also reminded that the National Bank has already announced the development of a plan that will allow to intensify lending to the banking system and is involving banks in its development.
Commenting on the words of his colleagues about the resumption of lending, Andriy Grigel, Chairman of the Board of Rada Bank, said that the bank’s commercial rate is currently 21% per annum. “But we will be happy to reduce it,” the banker said.
He also shared the forecast that the NBU will cut the key policy rate by 2 percentage points to 18% at its next meeting, explaining that there is no pressure on the hryvnia and no risk of devaluation.
Griegel also believes that the NBU may change the operational design of monetary policy along with the rate. “The previous decision was when they changed the calculation of the amount of investments in 3-month certificates of deposit from 70% to 35%, and they can also make changes to this formula now,” he said, adding that this will have more impact than the key policy rate itself.
According to the Council of Governors, after the cut at the next meeting, the NBU will then maintain the new rate until the end of the year. “Knowing the NBU’s philosophy, I have never seen them make sudden moves at the end of the year. Mostly, they issue a lot of regulations for banks to work on, but not decisions on rates,” Mr. Griegel said.
He added that the factor of military risks, which cannot be predicted, remains important when the National Bank makes its decisions.
AUB President Andriy Dubas also expects the key policy rate to be cut to 18% at the end of October, with no further cuts by the end of the year.
At the same time, Babayev of Pravex Bank suggests that the rate will be further reduced by another 1 percentage point by the end of this year.
The same opinion is shared by the head of Altbank Vorobyova: according to her expectations, the rate may be cut by another 1 percentage point on December 14.
“Our expectations are minus 3% by the end of the year from today’s figure,” the banker said.
Der Präsident der AUB, Andriy Dubas, geht ebenfalls davon aus, dass der Leitzins bis Ende Oktober auf 18 % gesenkt wird und bis Ende des Jahres keine weiteren Senkungen erfolgen.
Gleichzeitig geht Babayev von der Pravex Bank davon aus, dass der Zinssatz bis Ende des Jahres um einen weiteren Prozentpunkt gesenkt wird.
Die gleiche Meinung vertritt die Leiterin der Altbank Vorobyova: Ihrer Erwartung nach könnte der Zinssatz am 14. Dezember um einen weiteren Prozentpunkt gesenkt werden.
“Unsere Erwartungen liegen bei minus 3 % bis zum Jahresende, ausgehend von der heutigen Zahl”, sagte die Bankerin.
Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Yevhen Perebiynis has accepted copies of credentials from the new Ambassador of the Republic of Turkey to Ukraine Mustafa Levent Bilgen.
“Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Ambassador M. Levent Bilgen today handed copies of his credentials to Deputy Foreign Minister Yevhen Perebiynis,” the Turkish embassy said on Twitter.
As reported in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Perebiynis and Ambassador Bilgen discussed a number of topical issues of bilateral cooperation and international agenda, in particular, in the context of food security and implementation of the provisions of the “Formula of Peace” of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky.
The Deputy Minister wished success to Bilgen in his activities as Ambassador of the Republic of Turkey to Ukraine, which will contribute to deepening the strategic partnership between Ukraine and Turkey.
The previous Turkish ambassador to Ukraine, Yagmur Ahmet Güldere, held the post since January 2019.
ChatGPT and other applications based on generative (content-creating) artificial intelligence (AI) will gradually supplant traditional search engines, according to Michael Wolfe, co-founder and head of Activate, an American consulting company.
According to Activate, about 13 million American adults currently start their Internet searches with generative artificial intelligence services. By 2027, the number of such users will exceed 90 million, Wolfe expects and attributes this to the ability of generative AI to produce much more accurate and personalized results.
“Generative AI fundamentally changes the search model because results are no longer presented as links,” The Wall Street Journal quoted the expert as saying. – “It delivers information absolutely ‘packaged’ and ready to use.”
The new trend will benefit most of all from services with impressive volumes of client data, which will facilitate the issuance of personalized information, Wolfe believes.
From his point of view, the leader in this area will be TikTok. According to Activate, users spend an average of more than 54 minutes a day on the Chinese social network. The same figure for YouTube – 49 minutes, Instagram and Facebook (Meta Platforms information resources – 33 and 31 minutes respectively.
Greek Minister of Infrastructure and Transport Christos Staikouras has initiated the launch of a railway connection between Greece, Bulgaria, Moldova and Romania to connect with Ukraine, Noi.md reports.
According to the report, the Greek minister proposed to launch the train during a summit in Varna (Bulgaria) on October 9 to diversify trade ties between Mediterranean ports and Ukraine.
The Greek government proposes that trains should run to the Greek ports of Alexandroupolis and Thessaloniki from the ports of Ruse in Bulgaria and Constanta in Romania, and then connections could be established with Moldova and Ukraine. This project can become an alternative option in trade relations between the two countries, strengthening transport links and international freight transportation, Greece believes.
The Greek Minister of Transport sent a letter of intent to European Commissioner for Transport Adina Valean, Bulgarian Minister of Finance Assen Vasilev, Bulgarian Minister of Transport and Communications Georgi Gvozdeykov, and Romanian Minister of Transport and Infrastructure Sorin Grindian.
As reported, the European Union is exploring alternative routes for Ukrainian grain through Italy and Greece.
Kormotech, Ukraine’s largest manufacturer of cat and dog food, will implement a number of investment projects in Ukraine and Lithuania, where it has production facilities, as part of the development of its production capacities in 2023-2024, said the company’s beneficiary Rostyslav Vovk during a Business Breakfast with Forbes Ukraine on Wednesday.
According to him, Kormotech completed a 25% expansion of the company’s factory in Lithuania in the second quarter of 2023. In addition, in the third quarter, it will put into operation a new line at a factory in Lviv region for the production of wet fodder.
“EUR8m was invested in it (the new line at the factory in Lviv region), which allowed us to expand the plant’s production capacity by 65%. If earlier its capacity was 17,000 tons (of fodder – IF-U) per year, now it will be 27,000 tons,” he said.
In addition, according to the information of the company owner, at the end of 2023 Kormotech will start construction of a new factory in Lithuania, in which it will invest more than EUR60 mln.
“This factory will have the same capacity as our two factories in Ukraine. It will be plus 40 thousand tons. We should reach the launch of the first line in the middle of 2025,” Vovk emphasized.
The state enterprise “Forests of Ukraine” will plant 86 million new trees on the territory of 13.9 thousand hectares in the fall of 2023, the company’s director general Yuriy Bolokhovets said.
“We started the forest cultivation campaign in the fall. Our priorities: forests of new quality, more resistant to climate change, less vulnerable to pests and fires. The areas of monoculture creation are being reduced, predominantly mixed forest crops are being designed,” Bolokhovets noted.
Among the priorities of the enterprise is also afforestation of all clear-cuts in the forests of the State Enterprise “Forests of Ukraine”, as well as afforestation of degraded areas transferred to the State Enterprise “Forests of Ukraine” by local communities.
“We are significantly increasing the share of seedlings with closed root system (CRS). By this indicator we are gradually catching up with Poland. Five modern breeding centers have been opened and are already working. Opening of four more will increase the planting material with CLS up to 25 million units. Such seedlings give better survival rate, higher growth. The duration of the silvicultural campaign increases”, – said the Director General.
According to his information, instead of dying artificial spruce plantations in the Carpathian region will be planted natural beech and spruce forests, which have decorated the mountainsides for centuries. Large-scale forest planting in southern Ukraine is also planned.
“In the past, only 100-200 hectares of forest were planted there annually in the south. This year at the expense of the State Enterprise “Forests of Ukraine” carried out a huge preparatory work and we will plant about 5.4 thousand hectares”, – emphasized Bolokhovets and added that the reproduction of forests in the South of Ukraine will be carried out exclusively taking into account the results of scientific research to preserve natural ecosystems.
As reported, the State Specialized Economic Enterprise “Forests of Ukraine” is one of the largest forest users in Europe and the largest forest user in Ukraine. It is under the management of the State Agency of Forest Resources of Ukraine. The enterprise manages 6.6 million hectares of the state forest fund.
In Ukraine, the forestry reform started in 2016. Within its framework, the sale of untreated timber at electronic auctions has already been introduced. Since 2021, an interactive map of timber processing facilities location has been in test mode in a number of regions.
The industry has introduced the project “Forest in a smartphone”, which contains a list of logging tickets for timber harvesting and allows to check the legality of logging on the online map of the department.
Since June 1, 2023 Ukraine has launched a pilot of electronic issuance of logging tickets and certificates of origin of timber. In addition, the State Enterprise “Forests of Ukraine” started a pilot project for the procurement of timber harvesting services through the electronic platform Prozorro.
To date, Forests of Ukraine has harvested more than 130 thousand cubic meters of firewood for the heating season 2023/2024.
