The article collects and analyzes the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine. In connection with the entry into force of the Law of Ukraine “On Protection of the Interests of Business Entities during Martial Law or a State of War”, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine suspends the publication of statistical information for the period of martial law and for three months after its termination. The exception is the publication of information on the consumer price index, separate information on statistical indicators for 2021 and for the period January-February 2022. The article analyzes open data from the State Statistics Service, the National Bank, and think tanks.
Maksym Urakin, PhD in Economics, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the NBU, the UN, the IMF, and the World Bank.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
Maksym Urakin presented data from the National Bank of Ukraine on the improvement of the financial situation in 2023 compared to 2022 and the forecast for 2024.
“The baseline scenario of the NBU’s macroeconomic forecast assumes the continuation of prudent monetary and fiscal policies aimed at maintaining macrofinancial stability. Ukraine is also expected to fulfill its obligations under cooperation programs with international partners, which will continue to provide financial support in sufficient amounts. The forecast envisages a significant reduction in security risks starting in 2025, which will allow unblocking seaports, expanding opportunities for investment and economic activity, and facilitating the return of forced migrants to Ukraine. “, – emphasized Urakin.
The expert noted that the main risks for the economy remain the duration of the war and the instability of international assistance.
“Risks such as additional budgetary needs, in particular for maintaining defense capabilities and eliminating the consequences of destruction, as well as significant deficits, in particular in the energy sector, remain relevant. Significant damage to the port and energy infrastructure will limit exports, and the continued partial blocking of borders with certain EU countries for freight transportation will limit both imports and exports. Another risk is the deepening of negative migration trends,” the economist said.
According to the expert, the pace of international assistance to Ukraine decreased significantly in the fourth quarter of 2023
I quarter of 2024, which may negatively affect the economic recovery this year in the context of the war.
Prospects for the Global Economy
Maxim Urakin also analyzed the global economy, noting a slowdown in growth in 2024 to 2.2%.
“The analysis of the global GDP dynamics shows that the global economy continues to recover from the pandemic, but geopolitical instability has a restraining effect on this growth. According to Maxim Urakin, it is important to monitor developments and adapt to changing conditions to ensure sustainable economic growth in the future. In this context, Ukraine needs to focus on strengthening domestic political stability, restoring economic potential and continuing reforms to improve its post-war prospects and strengthen its position on the global stage,” the expert explains.
According to the expert, the current macroeconomic situation in Ukraine and the world requires further analysis. For Ukraine, the main challenges in the coming years will be the need to restore Ukraine after the war and manage the public debt.
Earlier, the Experts Club analytical center released a video on how the GDP of countries has changed in recent years, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/w5fF_GYyrIc?si=HO-KT2UC8pYdUwCH
Insurance group “TAS” (Kiev) in March 2024 attracted UAH 291.27 mln of insurance premiums under the concluded insurance contracts, which is 68% higher than the volume of payments collected by the company for the same period last year.
According to the insurer’s website, the volume of CASCO sales increased by 46.1% to UAH 57.39 mln of payments, which is 19.7% of the total amount of March premiums, MTPL – by 42% to UAH 90.54 mln or 31.1% of the total volume, Green Card – by 2.4 times to UAH 112.5 mln or 38.6% of the total volume.
Besides, the volumes of collections under property insurance contracts have grown by 29,3% – the company has attracted UAH 4,94 mln of payments under them in March.
Under contracts of voluntary medical insurance the company for the first month of spring 2024 collected UAH 2.73 million of payments, under other insurance contracts – UAH 23.21 million, which is 48.9% more than in the past.
As reported, in March the company paid out UAH 157.08 million – it is by 38.6% more indemnities of the company compared to March a year earlier. At the same time, a quarter of payments of the insurer for the reporting period (25,39%) came to CASCO – UAH 39,88 mln (+23,1%), MTPL – 34,48% of the volume of payments – UAH 54,16 mln (+14%), “Green Card” – 23,04%, or UAH 36,19 mln (+86,2%).
At the same time, the volume of payments under VHI has grown in 2,47 times, up to UAH 22,83 mln, that is equal to 14,54% of the total amount of payments of the company following the results of the reporting period. Under other insurance contracts the company’s payouts following the results of March totaled UAH 4,02 mln.
IG “TAS” was registered in 1998. It is a universal company offering its clients more than 80 types of insurance products on various types of voluntary and compulsory insurance. It has an extensive regional network: 28 regional directorates and branches and 450 sales offices throughout Ukraine.
Ukrburgaz Drilling Department (a division of Ukrgasvydobuvannya JSC) drilled 40,059 meters in April 2024, which is 24% higher than the previous monthly record set in November-2023 – 32,423 meters.
“Despite the war, we continue to drill new wells, increase gas production, fill underground storage facilities and generally work on increasing production figures,” Naftogaz Group head Oleksiy Chernyshov said, quoted on the company’s website on Wednesday.
According to him, the record figures were achieved, in particular, due to the rapid construction of drilling sites, accelerated work on mobilization of equipment and installation of drilling rigs, as well as clear distribution of special-purpose vehicles to accelerate the start of drilling of 9 wells.
In turn, as the head of Ukrgasvydobuvannya, Oleg Tolmachev, commented, the acceleration of drilling is directly related to improved production performance.
“We have already significantly increased the penetration rate. This year we plan to drill 365 thousand meters,” he noted.
Naftogaz Group increased gas production by 12% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024.
Ukraine’s exports in April this year increased by 11% compared to March and reached 13.1 million tons, the best result since the full-scale Russian invasion, First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Yulia Svyrydenko said on Facebook on Wednesday.
“This is an absolute record for the entire period of the full-scale war. For example, in March, exports amounted to 11.8 million tons, in January – 12 million tons. Importantly, this figure is higher than the level of pre-war February 2022. Back then, we exported 12.8 million tons,” the Minister of Economy reminded.
According to her, in monetary terms, exports in April amounted to $3.3 billion compared to $3.2 billion in March.
Svyrydenko noted that the growth in exports was primarily due to the operation of an alternative sea corridor, which made it possible to partially compensate for losses in the economy due to the blockade of the Polish-Ukrainian border, as well as the introduction of a mechanism for insuring ships against military risks, which initially applied only to agricultural products, but was soon expanded to all non-military cargo.
“Of course, the growth and expansion of the capacity of the Solidarity Roads, primarily with Moldova and Romania, has also added to the growth. And the improvement of the conditions for the transportation of goods by rail to the Danube ports,” the Deputy Prime Minister said.
Representatives of the National Police of Ukraine and Kyiv municipal security officers will patrol the places of worship and gatherings of believers during the celebration of the Resurrection of the Lord on May 5 to maintain law and order, said the head of the Kyiv City Military Administration Serhiy Popko.
“Law enforcement officers will be on duty near the churches to help evacuate believers and clergy to the nearest shelters during the air raid. In addition, there will be special temporary monitoring centers that will promptly monitor the situation in Kyiv to avoid offenses,” the city military administration said in a statement on its telegram channel on Wednesday.
It is reported that law enforcement officers will guard churches, cathedrals and the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra National Reserve in the capital “in order to prevent provocations.”
The curfew on Easter will remain in effect from 00:00 to 05:00, Popko said.
“Dear Kyiv residents and guests of the city, if possible, watch the service online – on TV or via YouTube or Facebook. If you do decide to go to church, take care of safety! Try to avoid large crowds. Do not forget that the country is at war. Our enemy has nothing sacred! Even on such bright days of celebration of the Resurrection of the Lord, the aggressor can only be expected to do evil! The threat of provocations or rocket attacks on this day has not been lifted! Follow the safety rules. Be aware of air raid warnings. When they are announced, go to the nearest shelter,” the statement reads.
International grain trader Qortia AG (Switzerland) has resumed grain shipments from Ukraine’s deepwater ports, the company reported on Linkedin.
According to the report, the company sent the vessel Bereket M (Panama flag) with a cargo of 21.5 thousand tons of Ukrainian corn from Pivdennyi port to Turkey.
“Bereket M became the first vessel this year that Qortia AG loaded exclusively by its own resources in a deep-water Ukrainian port. Since the company’s establishment, we have been actively shipping to Ukraine from deep water for six years. However, after the Russian invasion, we focused mainly on the development of river transportation and transshipment in the ports of the Danube cluster, where the company’s share reached 15%,” the statement said.
Qortia AG is a Swiss agri-trading and logistics company headquartered in Switzerland. It specializes in the purchase and export of grains (wheat, corn, soybeans, barley, etc.), oilseeds, and processed products. The Ukrainian representative office is located in Odesa. Its owners are Konstantin Kuflyk, Dmitry Yandovsky, and Andrey Vitryak.
Bereket M is a bulk carrier flying the flag of Panama. Its length (LOA) is 154.38 meters and its beam is 26 meters.
