Net sales of dollars by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) increased from $262.6 million last week to $680.4 million this week, which is in line with the figures at the very beginning of the year, according to the regulator.
According to the data, sales of foreign currency increased from $263.0 million to $680.9 million, while purchases remained at a meager level, although they increased slightly – from $0.37 million to $0.46 million.
The official hryvnia exchange rate weakened by almost 11 kopecks over the week, from 38.7998 UAH/$1 to 38.9075 UAH/$1. According to the regulator, the exchange rate declined in the first half of the week, reaching a historic low of 39.1399 UAH/$1 on Wednesday, after which it strengthened by 21 kopecks on Thursday and then by another 2 kopecks on Friday.
On the cash market, the hryvnia exchange rate weakened by 29 kopecks over the week. Unlike the interbank market, after strengthening from 39.31 UAH/$1 to 39.16 UAH/$1 on Thursday, it fell back to 39.30 UAH/$1 on Friday.
The dynamics of the negative balance between the volume of purchases and sales of foreign currency by the population corresponded to the fluctuations of the hryvnia at that time: from $15.4 million on Monday, it rose to $20.7 million on Wednesday.
As reported, on March 20, Ukraine received the first tranche of EUR4.5 billion from the EU under the Ukraine Facility program and $1.5 billion from Canada, while before that, all external revenues amounted to only $1.2 billion since the beginning of the year. In addition, on Friday night, the IMF Board of Directors approved the disbursement of the fourth tranche of $880 million under the EFF Extended Fund Facility program to Ukraine, which should arrive in two to three days, and on March 22, the budget received $230 million from Japan as part of the World Bank’s agricultural recovery project.
According to the National Bank’s forecasts, Ukraine may receive external financing worth $10 billion or even more from mid-March to the end of April, against the $37.3 billion in the state budget for the whole year.
At the same time, representatives of the National Bank noted at a press conference on March 14 that such irregular external financing would not lead to any shocks in the foreign exchange market.
In February, the NBU’s net sales fell to $1.50 billion from $2.53 billion in January, $3.55 billion in December, and $2.45 billion in November. However, due to low external support, international reserves declined by 3.8%, or $1.47 billion, to $37.05 billion in February after falling by 4.9%, or $1.98 billion in January.
In January, the National Bank lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s international reserves at the end of 2024 to $40.4 billion from $44.7 billion.
Number of unemployed in Ukraine and job opportunities, November 22 – December 23
Source: Open4Business.com.ua and experts.news
In January-February 2024, TAS Insurance Group (Kyiv) paid UAH 308.81 million under the concluded insurance contracts, which is 57.9% more than the company’s claims for the same two months last year.
According to the insurer’s website, the company’s payments under hull insurance contracts reached UAH 88.43 million, which is 28.64% of the total amount of the insurer’s payments and 38% higher than the corresponding figure for the same period in 2023.
Motor TPL claims increased by 57.7% to UAH 111.05 million, which is equal to 35.96% of the company’s total claims for the reporting period. At the same time, the share of “Green Card” in the insurer’s claims portfolio in January-February amounted to 16.82% or UAH 51.93 million (+49.3%).
VHI payments increased 2.3 times to UAH 47.7 million (15.45% of total claims).
In January-February, the company paid UAH 2.12 million under property insurance contracts and UAH 7.58 million under other insurance contracts.
TAS Insurance Group was registered in 1998. It is a universal company offering more than 80 types of insurance products in various types of voluntary and compulsory insurance. It has an extensive regional network of 28 regional directorates and branches.
The article collects and analyzes the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine. In connection with the entry into force of the Law of Ukraine “On Protection of the Interests of Economic Entities during Martial Law or State of War” the State Statistics Service of Ukraine suspends the publication of statistical information for the period of martial law, as well as for three months from the date of its completion.
The exception is the publication of information about the consumer price index, separate information on statistical indicators of 2021 and for the period January-February 2022. The article analyzes open data from the State Statistics Committee, the National Bank and analytical centers.
Maxim Urakin, PhD in Economics, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world based on official data from the State Statistics Committee of Ukraine, the NBU, the UN, the IMF and the World Bank.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
Maxim Urakin cited data from the National Bank of Ukraine on the improvement of the financial situation in 2023 compared to 2022.
“Last year was marked by more favorable macroeconomic conditions for the financial industry. GDP growth generally exceeded forecasts, and inflation rates declined. Even after the downgrade, the discount rate remains high enough to make hryvnia investments attractive. Thanks to the efforts of the National Bank and market readiness, the transition to a policy of managed flexibility of the hryvnia exchange rate was successful. At the same time, this success was ensured primarily by stable receipts from partners within the framework of macrofinancial assistance and an increase in the share of exports of agricultural products,” Urakin emphasized.
The expert noted that the main risks for the economy remain the duration of the war and instability of international aid.
“In the third quarter of 2023, Ukraine’s GDP growth slowed to 8.2%. The negative balance of foreign trade increased by 3.2 times, which is a worrying signal. Public debt has slightly decreased compared to August figures, but already in 2024 it may exceed the country’s GDP for the first time, which poses significant risks to economic stability,” the economist said.
The pace of international aid to Ukraine, in turn, has fallen significantly in Q4 2023 – Q1 2024, which could negatively affect the economic recovery this year amid the war.
Global Economic Outlook
Maxim Urakin also analyzed the global economy, noting a slowdown in growth in 2024 to 2.2%.
“The analysis of global GDP dynamics shows that the global economy continues to recover from the pandemic, but geopolitical instability has a restraining effect on this growth. According to Maxim Urakin, it is important to monitor developments and adapt to changing conditions to ensure sustainable economic growth in the future. Ukraine, in this context, needs to focus on strengthening domestic political stability, restoring its economic potential and continuing reforms to improve its post-war prospects and strengthen its position on the global stage,” the expert explained.
According to the expert, the current macroeconomic situation in Ukraine and the world requires further analysis. For Ukraine, the main challenges in the coming years will be the need to rebuild Ukraine after the war and public debt management.
Earlier, the Experts Club analytical center released a video on how the GDP of countries has been changing in recent years, more detailed video analysis is available here.
Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak held a meeting with the US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink.
“Held a meeting with Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the United States in Ukraine Bridget Brink. Told about massive Russian shelling of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and the difficult situation in several regions of our state,” Yermak wrote in his Telegram channel on Saturday.
“Thanked for Ukraine’s support in these super difficult times,” Yermak added.
Andriy Yermak, Brigitte Brink, Office of the President, U.S. AMBASSADOR, UKRAINE
The top ten steel-producing countries at the end of February are as follows: China (81.181 million tons, up 3.5% on Jan-Feb-2023), India (11.799 million tons, up 11.4%), Japan (6.989 million tons, up 1.1%), USA (6.453 million tons, down 1.2%), Russia (5.7 million tons, down 4, 4%), South Korea (5.128 million tons, down 1.5%), Germany (3.124 million tons, up 4.4%), Turkey (3.084 million tons, up 46.6%), Brazil (2.779 million tons, up 13.1%), and Iran (2.239 million tons, up 14.3%).
Cumulatively, steelmaking in February 2024 increased by 3.7% y-o-y to 148.838 million tons in 2023.
In January-February 2024, the top ten steel-producing countries are as follows: China (167.960 million tons, up 1.6% on Jan-Feb-2023), India (24.469 million tons, up 10%), Japan (14.253 million tons, up 0.8%), USA (12.998 million tons, down 2.6%), Russia (11.738 million tons, down 3, 2%), South Korea (10.849 million tons, up 0.2%), Turkey (6.332 million tons, up 34.5%), Germany (6.194 million tons, up 4.6%), Iran (4.842 million tons, up 26.5%) and Brazil (5.506 million tons, up 6.4%).
Overall, in 2M-2024, steelmaking increased by 3% y-o-y to 306.883 million tons.
Ukraine produced 1.076 million tons of steel in 2M-2024, which is 52% higher than in the same period of 2023 (708 thousand tons in 2M-2023). The country is ranked 21st in 2M-2024.
As reported, for 2023 China produced 1 billion 19.080 mln tons at the level of the previous year), India (140.171 mln tons, +11.8%), Japan (86.996 mln tons, -2.5%), USA (80.664 mln tons, +0.2%), Russia (75.8 million tons, +5.6%), South Korea (66.676 million tons, +1.3%), Germany (35.438 million tons, -3.9%), Turkey (33.714 million tons, -4%), Brazil (31.869 million tons, -6.5%), and Iran (31.139 million tons, +1.8%).
In total, 71 countries produced 1 billion 849.734 million tons of steel in 2023, 0.1% less than in 2022.
At the same time, Ukraine produced 6.228 million tons of steel in 2023, which is 0.6% lower than the volumes for 2022. The country is in 22nd place for 2023.
In total, 64 countries produced 1 billion 831.467 million tons of steel in 2022, 4.3% less than in 2021.
