Consumer price growth in Ukraine accelerated to 1.8% in October 2024 from 1.5% in September, 0.6% in August, and zero in July, the State Statistics Service (Ukrstat) reported on Friday.
The statistics agency recalled that in October 2023, consumer prices rose by 0.8%, so year-on-year inflation in October 2024 rose to 9.7% from 8.6% in September, 7.5% in August and 5.4% in July.
It is indicated that in October-2024, core inflation decreased to 1.3% from 1.7% in September. Taking into account that in October-2023 it was equal to 0.4%, on an annualized basis, core inflation rose to 8.3% last month from 7.3% in September, 6.5% in August and 5.7% in July.
In the consumer market, prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages rose by 3.2% in October. Vegetables and eggs rose the most (by 18.2% and 18.1%). Prices for butter, fruit, milk and dairy products, sunflower oil, processed cereals, beef, soft drinks, bread, lard, fish and fish products increased by 6.9-1.3%. At the same time, sugar prices fell by 4.2%.
Prices for alcoholic beverages and tobacco products increased by 1.8%, driven by a 2.6% rise in the price of tobacco products.
The 1.0% increase in healthcare prices was primarily due to a 1.3% increase in prices for hospital services and a 1.2% increase in prices for outpatient services.
Transportation prices increased by 0.5%, mainly due to a 0.8% rise in fuel and oil prices and a 0.7% rise in road passenger transportation fares. At the same time, railroad passenger transportation fell by 4.7%.
As reported, inflation in Ukraine in 2023 fell to 5.1% after a jump in 2022 to 26.6% from 10.0% in 2021.
In late October, the National Bank of Ukraine downgraded its inflation forecast for 2024 from 8.5% to 9.7% and worsened it for 2025 from 6.6% to 6.9%. The NBU’s forecast envisages inflation falling to 6.9% at the end of 2025 and reaching the 5% target in 2026.
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The National Bank of Ukraine has estimated the growth of Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2024 at 4% compared to the same period last year, while previously it had forecast it at 3.1%.
“The harvesting of late crops started earlier than last year and continues, which supported the agricultural performance in the third quarter. Stable operation of the sea corridor and loose fiscal policy also supported economic activity,” the NBU said in its Inflation Report published on its website.
The NBU noted that such a revision of the economic dynamics assessment in the third quarter made it possible to raise the GDP growth forecast for this year from 3.7% to 4%.
It is specified that at the end of the third quarter, the harvested area of late crops was 81% higher than last year, and the harvest volume was 68% higher, the volume of cargo transshipment for export in seaports increased 2.1 times in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the third quarter of 2023, and the volume of rail freight increased by 15%.
“As in previous quarters, investment demand made a positive contribution to GDP growth in the third quarter. In particular, it was supported by public capital investment in defense and related projects, such as weapons production, as well as disaster relief spending,” the NBU added.
He also emphasized the growth of private sector investment due to further improvement in the financial results of enterprises and their significant needs for energy-autonomous equipment given the difficult situation in the energy sector.
Explaining the slowdown in growth to 2.4% in the fourth quarter, the NBU cited earlier harvesting of late grains and oilseeds and their significantly lower yields compared to last year as one of the reasons for the negative contribution of agriculture to real GDP.
As for 2025, the NBU has improved its growth forecast for the first quarter from 1.8% to 2.3%, and for the second quarter from 2.8% to 3.4%, expecting growth to accelerate to 4.6% in the third quarter and 6.3% in the fourth quarter, whereas previously it had estimated growth of 5.1-5.9% for the second half of the year.
As a result, the overall GDP growth forecast for next year has been improved from 4.1% to 4.3%, and in nominal terms by UAH 100 billion to UAH 8.72 trillion, while this year’s estimate of nominal GDP was raised by UAH 40 billion to UAH 7.63 trillion.
“In the future, Ukraine’s real GDP growth will accelerate (to 4.3% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026). This will be facilitated by maintaining a loose fiscal policy, revival of domestic demand, which will be supported by wage growth, increased harvests and stable external demand, as well as investments in recovery, in particular in the energy sector,” the NBU said.
At the same time, he emphasized that economic growth will be constrained by a shortage of labor, security risks, migration processes, and the slow normalization of economic conditions.
In the updated report, the NBU retained three key risks to the forecast (with a strong impact and a probability of 25-50%): a longer duration and intensity of the war, higher budgetary needs, and a greater energy deficit due to further damage to the energy infrastructure.
Among the negative risks with a high probability (25-50%), the NBU added the potential pass-through to prices of higher interest rates or additional taxes, although the NBU assesses its impact as moderate.
The impact of the risk of more intense and prolonged blocking of cargo traffic across the border with certain EU countries remains weak in the updated Inflation Report, with the probability decreasing to less than 15%.
The NBU added increased emigration to the risk of rising geopolitical tensions with a moderate impact and a probability of 15-25%.
In addition, the probability of a positive risk, i.e. the rapid restoration of damaged energy infrastructure, has been reduced from 15-25% to less than 15%.
“The balance of risks in the baseline forecast is shifted towards increased price pressure,” the NBU said.
As reported, Ukraine’s GDP, according to the State Statistics Service, grew by 5.3% in 2023 after a 28.8% decline in 2022, including 4.7% growth in the fourth quarter of last year. In the first quarter of this year, the State Statistics Service estimated GDP growth at 6.5%, and in the second quarter – at 3.7%.
In January-September 2024, Express Insurance (Kyiv) made payments of UAH 377.4 million, which is 62%, or UAH 144.5 million, more than in the same period of 2023, according to the insurer’s website.
In particular, payments for hull insurance amounted to UAH 317.2 million (+56.1%), for MTPL – UAH 49.7 million (2.3 times more), for voluntary health insurance – UAH 4.5 million (-11.1%), payments under other insurance contracts – UAH 10.5 million (+19.4%).
The company’s insurance premiums for this period amounted to UAH 679.6 million, which is UAH 168.4 million, or 33% higher than the same indicator for 9M2023. 2023. In particular, motor hull insurance premiums increased by UAH 91.6 million (+20.6%) to UAH 535.6 million, MTPL premiums – by UAH 70.9 million (+130.5%) to UAH 125.2 million, and other insurance premiums – by UAH 8.8 million (+87.8%) to UAH 18.8 million.
The total level of payments to customers in January-September 2024 amounted to 55.5% compared to 45.6% for the same period last year.
Express Insurance ALC was founded in 2008 and is part of the UkrAVTO group of companies. The company specializes in motor insurance. The consistently high speed of claims settlement in the IC is ensured by optimal interaction with partner service stations.
Since April 2012, Express Insurance has been an associate member of the Motor Transport Insurance Bureau of Ukraine.
In Ukraine, in January-September 2024, due to the turnover and use of agricultural land, community budgets received more than UAH 23 billion in taxes, which is 15% more than in the same period in 2023, according to a study by the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) commissioned by the USAID program.
According to the study, in July 2024, agricultural land contributed UAH 3.5 billion to community budgets, which is 13% more than last year. This made it possible to partially compensate for the decline in other tax revenues caused by the redirection of personal income tax paid by the military to the state budget – approximately 16% of the UAH 2.5 billion shortfall in July.
In addition, the share of revenues related to agricultural land in the total tax revenues of communities this year increased from 11% to 14%. In July this year, communities had an average of UAH 90 of budget revenues per hectare. Dnipropetrovs’k region remains the leader in terms of budget revenues from the turnover and use of agricultural land – UAH 261 per hectare in July.
“The key factor in the growth of community revenues from the turnover and use of agricultural land was the increase in payments for the lease of communal agricultural land (+11%) and the revival of revenues from land tax (+12%). Communities’ finances were also positively affected by the increase in revenues from the minimum tax liability (MTL). In July 2024, the payment of the minimum tax obligation amounted to UAH 116 million, which is the largest monthly tax revenue since the beginning of the year,” the KSE said.
In January-October of this year, Ukrainian steelmakers increased their revenues from ferrous metal exports by 18.2% year-on-year to $2 billion 665.40 million.
According to statistics released by the State Customs Service (SCS), ferrous metals accounted for 7.7% of total export revenues during this period, compared to 7.6% in January-October 2023.
In October, revenues from exports of ferrous metals amounted to $265.72 million, while in the previous month – $332.83 million.
At the same time, Ukraine increased imports of similar products by 13.5% to $1 billion 251.91 million over ten months of this year. In October, the country imported products worth $129.45 million.
In addition, in January-October 2024, Ukraine increased exports of metal products by 5.7% to $799.01 million. In October, they were exported for $77.33 million.
Imports of metal products increased by 22.4% to $885.01 million during this period. In October, these products were imported for $98.53 million.
As reported earlier, in 2023, Ukraine’s steelmaking companies reduced revenues from exports of ferrous metals by 41.6% compared to 2022, to $2 billion 647.72 million, while ferrous metals accounted for 7.3% of total revenues from exports of goods during this period, while in 2022 the share was 10.3%. In addition, in 2023, Ukraine increased imports of similar products by 37% to $1 billion 307.05 million.
In addition, last year, Ukraine reduced exports of metal products by 16.6% year-on-year to $877.92 million. At the same time, imports of metal products increased by 40.3% to $902.57 million during this period.
Forecast of power system capacity deficit, %
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