Germany’s economy shows no signs of recovery: The country’s GDP will decline again in 2024, and stagnation is expected in 2025, according to a review by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
Experts expect Germany’s GDP to decline by 0.2% this year. The decline will be marked for the second year in a row – in 2023, the German economy shrank by 0.3%. In 2025, Germany’s GDP growth will be zero, analysts predict.
The autumn forecast predicted that the country’s GDP would decline by 0.1% in 2024 and grow by 0.5% in 2025.
The main reasons for the deterioration of the forecasts are the expected introduction of US tariffs and the deepening crisis in the German industry, IfW experts say.
“The crisis is largely a crisis of the manufacturing sector,” said Stefan Koots, head of the IfW’s economic forecasting department. – “It shows symptoms typical of the periods following major macro shocks.
“The German economy is struggling with a decline in competitiveness, which is reflected in the weakness of overall economic indicators, which hardly allow us to count on any upward impulses,” the expert added.
The growth rate of consumer prices in Germany will reach the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target of 2% only by the end of 2026, not 2025, as expected in the Institute’s previous forecast. The average inflation rate in 2024 and 2025 will be 2.2%, according to IfW.
Unemployment in Germany will be at 6% this year and 6.3% in 2025 and 2026, according to the IfW. This is worse than the fall forecast of 6.1% for 2025 and 5.9% for 2026.
Experts assume that Germany will be able to reduce the budget deficit from 2.6% of GDP in 2023 to 2.3% this year and 1.9% in 2025. In 2026, the budget deficit is projected at 2.1% of GDP. In the fall, IfW expected the budget deficit to be 1.7% in 2025 and 2026.
You can learn more about current trends in the global economy in the video analysis by Maksym Urakin and the Experts Cub think tank on the Experts Club YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grE5wjPaItI
Imports of refrigerators, freezers and heat pumps to Ukraine in January-November this year increased by 21.3% in monetary terms compared to the same period in 2023, to $251.59 million, according to statistics from the State Customs Service.
According to the agency’s statistics, refrigeration and freezing equipment was imported mainly from China (32.3% of imports, or $81.3 million), Poland (23.7%, or $59.7 million) and Turkey (12.3%, or $30.8 million), while a year earlier, most of such equipment was imported from Poland (28%), followed by China (21%) and Turkey (15.2%).
At the same time, in November, imports of refrigeration and freezing equipment decreased by 5% to $17.3 million compared to November 2023.
Meanwhile, in January-November, Ukraine increased exports of such equipment by 56.7% to $68.05 million, in particular, exports to Poland increased 6.6 times to $13.52 million (almost 20% of exports of this equipment), to Kazakhstan – by 21.2% to $13.37 (19.7%), to Uzbekistan more than tripled to $7.53 million (11%).
For a long time, Ukraine’s largest producer of household refrigerators and freezers was the Nord plant in Donetsk, which was forced to shut down in 2016 due to the war and moved its refrigerator production to China.
On the distribution company’s website, the last message about the sale of equipment in the online store is dated June 2020.
In addition, KTD Group, which produces household appliances in Ukraine under the Saturn, ST, and Laretti brands, announced in February 2019 that it would launch a trial production of household refrigerators at a new plant in Cherkasy, but nothing has been known about this project since then.
In addition, the UBC Group, a commercial and industrial holding company with plants in Kharkiv and Vinnytsia, operates in the B2B refrigeration segment in Ukraine.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and global insurance and reinsurance broker Aon have announced the launch of a specialized program aimed at restoring the activity of the military risk insurance market in Ukraine, under which the EBRD provides guarantees of EUR 110 million.
“The Bank’s partnership with Aon will help to restore the activity of international reinsurance companies in the Ukrainian military insurance market. The Bank’s new guarantee will improve the access of private sector insurance companies to reinsurance, which will lead to overcoming the current challenges caused by the war,” the EBRD said in a press release on Thursday.
According to it, the program will involve the international reinsurance company MS Amlin and Ukrainian insurance companies INGO, Colonnade and UNIQA. It is specified that the initiative is supported by donors, including France, the United Kingdom, Norway and the Taiwan-Business-EBRD Technical Cooperation Fund.
Under a new EUR110 million guarantee program for Ukraine’s recovery, the EBRD will provide international reinsurance companies with a guarantee to cover certain war-related risks insured by Ukrainian insurance companies. The program will utilize existing market infrastructure and proven insurance industry mechanisms to provide the protection required by private sector investors, the release said.
It is stated that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led to a significant restriction of access to reinsurance services, as international companies have largely ceased to operate in the Ukrainian market. This, in turn, has significantly limited the ability of Ukrainian insurance companies to offer commercial insurance products against military risks.
It is emphasized that the new program is the first program of its kind and will operate as an open platform through which various insurance market participants will be able to access the guarantee. Global specialized reinsurance company MS Amlin is the first international partner in this market to join the bank’s program. Thanks to this program, this British company will be able to reduce the amount of relevant liabilities on its balance sheet, which will allow it to resume active cooperation with Ukrainian insurance companies to provide much-needed insurance for military risks.
It is specified that at the initial stage, the program will cover insurance of land freight transportation, damage to vehicles and railway rolling stock. In the future, it may be expanded to cover other types of property, taking into account market needs.
Given that such policies are typically short-term, the program is designed to reuse capital to achieve aggregate coverage that will exceed the guarantee amount many times over, depending on the actual number of policies sold and the frequency of claims, the EBRD said.
“According to preliminary estimates, based on this approach, the bank’s guarantee can provide insurance coverage totaling up to EUR1 billion of goods and vehicles per year, which will have a significant economic impact,” the EBRD predicts.
It is also noted that the European Union and Switzerland have promised additional donor support. According to the release, the EBRD and Aon worked in close coordination with the Ministry of Economy and the National Bank of Ukraine to prepare the program, in particular to ensure complementarity between the new initiative and other programs offered by other international organizations and the Ukrainian government, with the aim of expanding war risk insurance for Ukrainian companies and strengthening the Ukrainian economy.
Dynamics of import of goods in january-august 2024 by the most important items in relation to the same period of 2023, %
Open4Business.com.ua
In January-November this year, Ukraine increased imports of coke and semi-coke in physical terms by 2.05 times compared to the same period last year, up to 622.694 thousand tons.
According to statistics released by the State Customs Service (SCS) on Monday, coke imports in monetary terms increased by 87% to $222.891 million over the period.
Imports were mainly from Poland (84.90% of supplies in monetary terms), Colombia (8.18%) and Hungary (2.85%).
For 11 months of the year, the country exported 1.593 thousand tons of coke for $366 thousand to Moldova (99.73%) and Latvia (0.27%), while in January, March, October and November 2024 there were no exports, while for 11 months of 2023 exports amounted to 3.383 thousand tons for $787 thousand.
As reported, in 2023, Ukraine reduced imports of coke and semi-coke in physical terms by 8.5% compared to 2022 – to 328.697 thousand tons, while imports in monetary terms decreased by 25.8% to $129.472 million.
In 2023, Ukraine exported 3,383 thousand tons of coke, down 12.3% compared to 2022. In monetary terms, it decreased by 22.2% to $787 thousand.
Exports were carried out to Moldova (100% of supplies in monetary terms), while imports came mainly from Poland (88.47%), Colombia (7.72%) and the Czech Republic (3.15%).
In January-September 2024, PJSC “Ukrainian Agrarian Insurance Company” (UASC, Kyiv) collected UAH 9.643 million of gross premiums, which is 46.02% less than in the same period last year.
This was reported by the rating agency Standard-Rating, which confirmed the company’s financial strength rating at the level of uaAA on the national scale.
According to the report on the RA website, in particular, revenues from individuals increased by 14.44% to UAH 0.206 million, and there were no premiums from reinsurers in the period under review. Thus, according to the results of nine months of 2024, taking into account the share of individuals in gross premiums at 2.14%, legal entities prevailed in the insurer’s client portfolio.
Insurance payments sent to reinsurers for the three quarters of 2024 decreased by 57.52% compared to the same period in 2023 – to UAH 3,650 million, and the reinsurer participation ratio in insurance premiums decreased by 10.25 percentage points to 37.85%.
In the analyzed period, the company’s net written premiums decreased by 35.36% to UAH 5.993 million, and net earned premiums decreased by 22.57% to UAH 8.161 million.
In the first nine months of 2024, the company paid UAH 4.528 million in insurance claims and reimbursements to its clients, which is 64.00% more than in the same period of 2023. The level of payments in the period under review increased by 31.50 percentage points to 46.96%.
In the first nine months of 2024, the financial result from operating activities amounted to UAH 6.992 million (compared to an operating loss in the first nine months of 2023), and net profit increased 8.35 times to UAH 9.182 million in the same period of 2023.
As of November 1, 2024, the company’s assets decreased by 1.56% to UAH 80.473 million, equity showed an increase of 6.87% to UAH 68.314 million, liabilities decreased by 31.80% to UAH 12.159 million, cash and cash equivalents decreased by 31.56% to UAH 14.334 million.
RA also informs that as of the reporting date, UASC has formed a portfolio of current financial investments in the amount of UAH 63.462 million, which consisted of investments in government bonds.
IC “Ukrainian Agrarian Insurance Company” (formerly IC “Salamandra-Dnipro”) has been operating in the country’s market since 1995.
According to the Unified State Register of Legal Entities and Individual Entrepreneurs, 84.750% of UASC’s authorized capital is owned by Dobrobut Agrofirm, Astarta-Kyiv LLC holds 5.5%, and Poltavazernoprodukt Investment and Industrial Company LLC holds 9.75%.
