The National Bank of Ukraine in its August inflation report worsened its forecast for the country’s 2024 consolidated budget deficit including grants to UAH 1,281 billion, or 16.8% of GDP, down from UAH 811 billion, or 10.5% of GDP, in its April report.
“Deficits are expected to be higher than in the previous forecast, primarily due to the longer duration of security risks, and therefore the need for significant spending on the security and defense sector. Taking this into account, the amount of expected international assistance to finance other expenditures has been increased,” the NBU points out.
In the new report, the forecast of the consolidated budget deficit including grants in 2025 is raised to UAH 883 billion, or 10.0% of GDP, up from UAH 577 billion, or 6.5% of GDP in the April report.
Last year, as the NBU recalled, the deficit of the consolidated budget including grants amounted to UAH 845 billion, or 16.3% of GDP. In the second quarter of this year, it widened to more than UAH 233 billion, and excluding grants in revenue – to UAH 369 billion, or more than 24% of GDP.
“In 2023, the budget deficit excluding grants in revenue is expected to be at the level of the previous year – more than 26.3% of GDP. In the future, due to the increase in revenues, it will narrow to almost 20% of GDP in 2024 and 12% of GDP in 2025 excluding revenue grants,” the National Bank summarized.
It specified that it expects grants to decline from 9.3% of GDP last year to 6.5% of GDP this year, 2.9% of GDP next year and 1.8% of GDP in 2025.
“Given the significant budget deficits for several consecutive years and their financing mainly by debt, as well as the reduction of grant support in the medium term, the debt will approach 100% of GDP,” the National Bank said. It explained that it increased the debt-to-GDP ratio in this forecast compared to the previous one due to the revision of assumptions about the size of deficits upward and grant support downward in 2024-2025.
In particular, the NBU expects government debt to rise from 78.4% of GDP to 84.6% of GDP this year, to 96.6% of GDP next year and to 98.2% of GDP in 2025.
“At the same time, such a high level of debt will have a relatively moderate pressure on the budget in the coming years, primarily due to the receipt of loan funds on preferential terms – at low rates and with a deferred schedule of principal payments,” the NBU believes.
On Monday, August 7, in most southern and eastern regions, as well as in Crimea, dry, hot weather will remain with temperatures of 20-25° at night, 28-33° during the day, and up to 38° in the east, the Ukrainian Weather Center reports.
In the rest of the regions, short-term rains with thunderstorms are forecast, and in the western regions, in some places, significant rains at night. Temperatures will be 19-24° at night, 21-26° during the day, 12-17° at night and 18-23° during the day in the western, Zhytomyr and Vinnytsia regions.
The wind in Ukraine will be southeast with a shift to the west, 7-12 m/s.
In Kyiv on Monday, August 7, short-term rains with thunderstorms. Southeast wind with a shift to the west, 7-12 m/s. The temperature at night will be 21-23°, during the day 23-25°.
According to the Central Geophysical Observatory named after Borys Sreznevsky. On August 7, the highest daytime temperature in Kyiv was 38.0° in 2010, and the lowest nighttime temperature was 8.7° in 1923.
In Ukraine, on Tuesday, August 8, no precipitation, only in the afternoon in the western, Odesa, Vinnytsia, Kirovograd and Cherkasy regions there will be short-term rains with thunderstorms.
West, northwest wind, 5-10 m/s. Temperature at night will be 11-16°, in the western regions 7-12°, during the day 21-26°, in the southern and eastern parts 17-22° at night, during the day 27-32°.
No precipitation in Kyiv on Tuesday, August 8. West, northwest wind, 5-10 m/s. Temperature at night 14-16°, during the day 23-25°.
Ukreximbank has joined the “єOsela” program, the press service of the Ministry of Economy reported.
It is reported that Ukreximbank and “Ukrfinzhytlo” signed a corresponding agreement on August 1. Now 6 partner banks take part in the program: Sberbank, Privatbank, Ukrgasbank, Globus Bank, Sky Bank and Ukreximbank.
“Joining one more bank to the list of partners expands opportunities for borrowers wishing to purchase housing or improve housing conditions,” the release said.
As reported, the program of affordable mortgage lending “єOselia” has worked in Ukraine since October 2022. On a preferential mortgage at 3% per annum for up to 20 years with a down payment of 20% of the cost of housing can qualify for contract servicemen of the AFU, security and defense sector workers, medical workers, teachers, researchers. Since its launch in 2022, partner banks have already issued more than UAH 3 billion in loans to more than 2.2 thousand participants.
Since August 1, to apply for participation in the program “єOsela” at 7% can be war veterans, combatants, IDPs and citizens who do not have their own housing more than the standard area.
An apartment can be chosen in a house not older than three years or built by a developer accredited by a partner bank. At the same time, the normative requirements for the area and the marginal cost of the apartment are preserved.
You can apply for participation in the program in the mobile application “Diya”.
At the end of 2022, the government additional capitalized Ukrfinzhytlo for 30 billion UAH through the issue of domestic state loan bonds. According to Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Yulia Sviridenko, such financing is enough to issue 12-15 thousand mortgage loans in 2023.
Structure of foreign exchange reserves as of 30.05.2023
Source: Open4Business.com.ua and experts.news
The National Bank of Ukraine has imposed fines on eight pawnshops, three lessors, and four financial companies for late submission of reports to the regulator for the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023.
According to the regulator’s announcement on its website on Wednesday, in particular, Orion-T Lombard Bezborodov & Menaker PA (USREOU 19314356), Credit Center Lombard Tomchuk & Company, Oscar Lombard (Oscar Dry Cleaning, Gluttony Fast Food), UMKV & Company Lombard, 9999 Lombard, and Lombard. Sirenka Y. S. and Company, Lombard Parus LLC, Global Franchising LLC and Company, Lombard Kopiyka LLC, Ukr.Concept-Car LLC and PE ID, and Lombard Shvydka Dopomoga Linichenko and Company.
Among the leasing companies, fines were imposed on Advance Leasing LLC, AVG Leasing and City Leasing.
Finally, among the financial companies that fell under the National Bank’s influence were Wellfin LLC, Money 247, Cardservice and Credo Solutions.
The NBU clarified that the decision to impose enforcement measures was made based on the results of on-site supervision of the non-banking financial services market on August 2, and they will come into force on August 3. Financial service providers have to pay the fines, the amount of which is not specified, within seven business days from the date of receipt of the relevant decision of the regulator.
The State Property Fund of Ukraine (SPF) has presented a website dedicated to the launch of the Land Bank with the publication of answers to the main questions on land relations, as well as a map with the lands that will be accumulated in the Land Bank.
According to the FGI website, the law launching a transparent lease of state-owned agricultural land through online auctions was adopted by the Verkhovna Rada on July 27, obliging the Fund to create a Land Bank.
“The main goal is to fight corruption on state-owned agricultural land. Every year, unscrupulous managers of state-owned agribusinesses leased state land to businesses under “gray” schemes. In their pockets got tens of millions of dollars of cash, and the state – losses,” – quoted the press service of the head of the FGI Rustem Umerov.
It recalled that about 700 thousand hectares of state farmland for years did not bring funds for the budget and citizens. FGI intends to change this by accumulating information about them in the Land Bank and will subsequently lease through open online auctions on the electronic platform Prozorro.
“The new investment product will allow each Ukrainian to start their own business, transparently and openly leasing a land plot through an online auction “, – emphasized in the FGI.
According to preliminary calculations, the expected economic effect from the introduction of transparent land lease will be up to 7 billion UAH per year.
The first auctions will be held in 2024.
