Ukraine will have to attract an additional 4.5 million employees to the labor market over the next ten years to make a post-war recovery, the Economy Ministry predicted on Thursday following a seminar with the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the International Labor Organization (ILO).
“Labor market recovery is not a consequence of victory, it is a path to victory,” the ministry quoted Deputy Economy Minister Tatyana Berezhnaya as saying.
It is pointed out that even before the full-scale invasion Ukraine was facing a labor shortage, but now that more than 6 million Ukrainians have been forced to go abroad, the labor situation in the country has become even more critical.
It is noted that the IOM and ILO plan to continue to support the Ministry of Economy in paving the way for labor market recovery to achieve key priorities.
“We look forward to working closely together to help the state on its road to recovery and shape a more promising future for Ukraine and its people. Economic recovery is paramount to this process,” said IOM Representative Office Chairman Anh Nguyen at the seminar.
The event was attended by 40 participants from the Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Infrastructure, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Education, State Employment Service and State Migration Service, Office of the President, Ministry of Digital Transformation, Ministry of Culture and State Border Service, as well as IOM, ILO and NGOs.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its July outlook released improved its forecast for Ukraine’s corn crop in the early 2023/24 marketing year (MY) to 25 million tons from 24.5 million tons in the June release, and its export forecast to 19.5 million tons from 19 million tons.
Meanwhile, the overall forecast for feed grain exports in this MY is lowered to 21.33 million tons from 21.53 million tons due to a reduction in the crop estimate to 31.47 million tons from 31.67 million tons.
For wheat, the forecast is kept the same: harvest – 17.5 million tons, exports – 10.5 million tons.
In the update, USDA estimated last MY 2022/23 wheat crop at 21.5 million tons vs. 33.01 million tons a year earlier and exports at 16.8 million tons vs. 18.84 million tons, respectively, with transitional residues reduced from 5.27 million tons to 1.63 million tons.
According to the USDA, the feed grain harvest fell to 33.93 million tons last year from 53.51 million tons in MY 2021/22, while exports fell to just 30.75 million tons from 32.93 million tons due to a reduction in transitional residues from 8.67 million tons to 2.16 million tons.
Including corn harvest in the past MY decreased to 27 million tons from 42.13 million tons a year earlier, while exports increased to 28 million tons from 26.98 million tons, including due to a reduction in transitional residues from 7.59 million tons to 1.39 million tons.
Bali authorities have decided to levy a tourist tax on foreigners from 2024, with the funds to be used to preserve cultural heritage, The Jakarta Post reported.
“Bali attracts millions of foreign visitors every year, and the island is trying to capitalize on its popularity to replenish the treasury and protect cultural heritage. From 2024, foreign tourists traveling to Bali from abroad or other parts of Indonesia will be charged a one-time tax of $10,” the Post writes.
As the newspaper notes, payment of the tax will be made through an electronic payment, which will have to be made before arrival on the island.
Bali Governor Wayan Koster believes that the new levy will not lead to a decrease in tourist traffic.
“I don’t think the numbers will be lower. We plan to use the revenue from the tourist tax to preserve the environment and culture, build better infrastructure to make traveling to Bali more comfortable and safe,” he explained.
In 2022, more than 2 million foreign tourists visited Bali, but since the beginning of 2023, the island has seen an increase in violations of cultural norms and migration laws by foreign tourists, so the authorities no longer want to develop mass tourism.
The US government, through the USAID AGRO Program, will provide Ukrainian agrarians with 12,000 tons of fertilizers for the autumn sowing season free of charge, the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food said.
“Before the war, Ukraine provided domestic needs for nitrogen fertilizers by 75%. However, due to the full-scale invasion, production has decreased due to logistical problems, broken production chains and rising costs of raw materials. This has limited access to fertilizer for micro, small, and medium-sized farmers. USAID will help agribusinesses ensure their farms have the fertilizer they need in the fall and continue next year,” the statement said.
Agrarians who cultivate from 5 to 500 hectares in any region of Ukraine (except for temporarily occupied territories), grow grain or oilseed crops, are registered as legal entities or individual entrepreneurs, in particular, family farms, will be able to participate in the program.
They will be able to receive 1 ton of nitroammophoska (NPK 16:16:16:16/15:15:15:15) for main and pre-sowing application.
Registration for assistance has already started in the State Agrarian Register (SAR). Applications are accepted exclusively through the GAR, under “Available Programs” – “NPK Fertilizer from USAID AGRO, 2023.” Registration will continue until the applied amount of fertilizer is exhausted.
The USAID AGRO program will hold a public webinar on July 20, 2023 on the terms and conditions and receiving assistance.
As reported, USAID launched a number of programs in 2022 to address the global food crisis, which is exacerbated by the war waged against Ukraine. In the spring of 2023, more than 8,200 Ukrainian agrarians received more than 6,300 tons of fertilizers from USAID, as well as seeds for sowing more than 48,300 hectares of sunflower and 15,000 hectares of corn.
Money supply (aggregate M3) in Ukraine after growth in May by 1.6% in June added another 2.6%, or by UAH 70.1 billion and reached UAH 2 trillion 729.95 billion, the National Bank said.
According to the data on its website, deposit growth in the sixth month of this year accelerated to 2.8% from 1.9% in May and was provided mainly by hryvnia deposits, which, after growing by 3.2% in May, increased by another 3.7%, or UAH 48.7 billion, to UAH 1 trillion 376.1 billion in June.
Foreign currency deposits, which decreased by 0.6 billion in May, grew by UAH 6.7 billion, or 1.0%, to UAH 688.6 billion (in hryvnia equivalent) in June.
Money in circulation outside banks (M0), after increasing by 0.7% in May, added another 2.3% to UAH 664.2 billion in June, almost returning to the level of the beginning of this year.
The growth of monetary base (reserve funds) after acceleration in May to 3.1% in June slowed down to 1.6%, amounting to UAH 14.0 bln – to UAH 907.5 bln. Such dynamics is associated with the absence of an increase in reserve requirements in June.
In addition, cash in banks’ cash offices increased slightly – by UAH 1.1 bln, to UAH 46.7 mln.
Investments in certificates of deposit, which decreased by UAH 1 billion in May, jumped by UAH 51.5 billion, or 12%, to UAH 478.9 billion in June.
The volume of hryvnia loans in June increased for the first time since May 2022 – so far only by 0.2%, or UAH 1.4 bln – to UAH 694.2 bln. However, due to the continued reduction in foreign currency loans, which amounted to 0.7%, or UAH 1.7 billion – to UAH 243.8 billion in June, in general for the past month, loans again decreased, albeit minimally – by UAH 0.3 billion.
Overall for the first half of this year, the money supply increased by 9.1%, the base – by 14.5%, while money in circulation outside banks decreased by 0.3%.
Deposits increased by 12.6%, including hryvnia deposits by 14.3% and foreign currency deposits by 9.3%, while loans decreased by 5.2%, including hryvnia deposits by 4.1% and foreign currency deposits by 8.2%.
As reported, the money supply in Ukraine in 2022 after growth by 12% in 2021 increased by another 21%, or by UAH 435.2 billion.
Deposits for the past year increased by 23.6%, or by UAH 350.8 billion, including hryvnia deposits – by 19.1%, or by UAH 193.9 billion, while foreign currency deposits (in hryvnia equivalent) – by 33.1%, or by UAH 156.9 billion.
The monetary base in 2022 increased by 19.6% compared to 11.2% a year earlier. At the same time, money in circulation outside banks increased by 14.6%, or by UAH 85.1 billion over the year.
The volume of loans in 2022 decreased by 3.8%, or by UAH 39.1 billion. At the same time, hryvnia loans decreased by UAH 13.4 bln, while foreign currency loans decreased by UAH 25.7 bln.
The IMF in the updated in late June materials on the EFF program forecasts growth of the monetary base this year by 25.3%, mass – by 22.0% and reduction of loans to the non-government sector by 12.5%.
DIM Group expects to increase the share of investors who make timely payments under installment agreements to 80-90% by the end of this year, while today their number is 50%, said Alexander Nasikovsky, managing partner of the group.
“Exactly half of those who bought real estate from us are not waiting for the war to end and are already fulfilling their obligations. They see that every hryvnia from their pockets is actually spent on the construction of their own home, not just a new pit. We are now working to ensure that by the end of the year the percentage of those who pay under installment agreements will be at the level of 80-90%,” Nasykovsky said in a column for Interfax-Ukraine.
According to him, the rapid resumption of construction work after a pause at the beginning of the full-scale invasion allowed for an increase in the number of timely payments under installment agreements. Thus, at the beginning of the active phase of the war, only 10% of investors paid by installments, while today their share has reached 50%.
In addition, to support and stimulate demand, DIM has developed a number of financial instruments: special terms of debt payment and early repayment, favorable exchange rate offers, and debt restructuring. In addition, the company launched a guaranteed yield program at 10% in US dollars and a trade-in program.
Despite the limited effective demand, housing prices were affected by rising construction costs, fuel prices and inflationary processes, Nasikovsky noted.
“In annual terms, we had almost 27% inflation. “Contracts and extensions, and sometimes radical changes in supply chains due to the loss of capacity of producers of a number of building materials in the southern and eastern regions and the relocation of many businesses, are also driving up the price tag. Over the past year, the weighted average cost of construction in housing increased by at least 45%,” he explained.
According to him, certain categories of building materials increased in price by 30-70%, most notably concrete, glass, plaster, wood, and iron.
In addition, the cost of labor has also increased significantly – by 37% on average, Nasikovsky added.
“Prices are growing and will continue to grow, because no one has canceled the laws of the market. Another question is what to do with the limited effective demand. In my opinion, the answer should be sought inside the market, not outside, relying solely on reparations or government support. The recovery and potential of the market will directly depend on the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces, or rather, on its results and timing. We can already see that psychologically, buyers and investors are gradually ready to return to the market if there is a coincidence in their expectations in the price-value-construction time axis – real dynamics,” the expert believes.
Founded in 2014, DIM Group consists of six companies covering all stages of construction.
To date, the group has commissioned 12 houses in six residential complexes. Seven residential complexes of the comfort+ and business class categories are under construction: “New Autograph, Metropolis, Park Lake City, Lucky Land, etc.
